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不是农耕经济,找了篇有关的文章你看看。
送交者: 冬冬 2018月10月11日18:04:49 于 [五 味 斋] 发送悄悄话
回  答: 这是农耕经济的思维 newwild 于 2018-10-11 18:02:23

Hayek's Commodity Reserve Currency

In
1943, disillusioned by the failure of an international gold standard
managed by poorly coordinated central banks, F.A. Hayek wrote “
A Commodity Reserve Currency,
in which he detailed the functioning of a commodity-backed reserve
currency whose operation would be subject to rules. Hayek’s article
followed the suggestion of Benjamin Graham and Frank D. 
Graham, who, in Hayek’s words, both followed a proposal “by the Dutch economist, Professor J. Goudrian [sic], in a pamphlet, How to Stop Deflation.”

Hayek’s
proposal argued that monetary authorities should designate a basket of
commodities as reserves. The authorities would target the price of the
basket, such that when the basket is below the target price, the
monetary authority increases its holdings of commodities in the basket
through purchases enabled by expanding the money stock. When the price
of the basket is above the target, the monetary authority sells its
holdings of the basket of commodities. With a sufficiently broad basket
of commodities, this would allow the relative prices of these
commodities to fluctuate while overall demand for the basket is
sustained. The benefits of such a standard are as follows: (1) monetary
policy ceases to be discretionary; (2) monetary policy promotes a
relatively stable and predictable price level; (3) monetary policy is
countercyclical.

Consider how monetary policy is devised within
the United States. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate. It is
expected to maintain price stability and maximum employment of labor. To
maintain price stability is to limit the rate of monetary expansion.
The price-stability mandate also includes moderating long-term interest
rates. 

The second mandate, to maintain maximum employment, might
be thought of by Keynesians in terms of the Phillips curve, which posits
an inverse relationship between unexpected inflation and the
unemployment rate. The relationship between these cannot be exploited by
monetary authorities in the long run, because laborers adjust their
expectations for wages as they become aware of inflation, which reduces
their wealth. As Milton Friedman points out in his now-famous speech “
The Role of Monetary Policy,”

The
monetary authority controls nominal quantities – directly the quantity
of its own liabilities.… It cannot use its control over nominal
quantities to peg a real [inflation adjusted] quantity – the real rate
of interest, the rate of unemployment, the level of real national
income, the real quantity of money, the rate of growth of real national
income, or the rate of growth of the real quantity of money.

It is
efficient for the unemployment rate to be greater than zero. Some
unemployment must exist as individuals search for jobs that suit their
preferences and skill sets while others invest time to adapt to a
rapidly changing market by learning new skills. The natural rate of
unemployment measures such unemployment. Monetary authorities cannot
sustainably push the rate of unemployment below this natural rate in the
long run.

Friedman built his analysis upon the
rational-expectations hypothesis. This revolutionary hypothesis had an
especially significant implication for monetary policy. Since investor
expectations inevitably adjust to changing policy, monetary policy ought
to be predictable so as not to increase uncertainty for investors. In
light of rational expectations, the best a monetary authority can do to
maintain the maximum level of employment is to be transparent concerning
plans for future policy.

Hayek’s rule fits that policy and
theoretical criterion. Most importantly, by constraining monetary policy
with a rule, it is no longer dependent upon the whims of policy makers.
Once the rule is settled, the job of the monetary authority is to
respond to the changing value of the commodity basket by purchasing or
selling the basket. Since the prices of goods, especially commodities,
tend to be countercyclical, a commodity reserve currency of the form
Hayek proposed would tend to mitigate some of the volatility in total
expenditures due to the business cycle. As the basket’s price index
falls below the policy target, as occurs in the depths of a recession,
the monetary authority expands the money stock. As the economy recovers
and moves into a boom, a rising price index leads the monetary authority
to sell the commodity basket, thus preventing an unsustainable boom
driven by monetary expansion. Thus, Hayek’s policy would promote price
stability and, along with market forces, help guide the observed rate of
unemployment in the direction of the natural rate.

Hayek’s
commodity reserve standard would automatically serve to stabilize prices
and output. In our discussion of rule-based monetary policy and sound
money, the mechanics and principles guiding Hayek’s proposal deserve
careful consideration.


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  这就是GLD,SLV,USO等商品ETF概念 - newwild 10/11/18 (0)
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