哀，莫大于心死 —— 美国越战老兵返家到底多少自杀？

高晓松《晓说》中说，越战美军死亡5.8万，回国后自杀8万；

这位作者也说8万：杀一个人是犯罪，杀一百万个人只是个数字。越南战争长达12年，美军死亡5.6万余人，30多万人受伤，老兵回国自杀人数高达8万！http://k.sina.com.cn/article_1198503091_476fb4b3019001906.html

越战老兵 BERNARD A. HEENEY 1991年致信纽约时报道：

¶ Suicides among Vietnam veterans have been said to be 50,000 to 100,000. At any time during the Vietnam conflict, there were 37 million males aged 18 through 35. Of this group approximately 2.6 million served in Vietnam. Of the entire 37 million male population there have been approximately 152,000 suicides.

¶ If 50,000 to 100,000 Vietnam veterans commited suicide, that would mean that between one-third and two-thirds of all the suicides in the 37 million population came from the 2.6 million subgroup. There is no factual evidence to support this assertion.

¶ The best estimate of suicide among Vietnam veterans, from the Centers for Disease Control in 1988 Congressional testimony, is 9,000.

¶ As a Vietnam veteran who regularly visits veterans' hospitals, I fully understand how war wounds the mind as well as the body. However, the problem of veterans of all wars should be considered without sensationalism, and not to make political points. BERNARD A. HEENEY Bayonne, N.J., Feb. 20, 1991.

谷歌翻译：

¶越南老兵的自杀率据说是5万到10万。在越南冲突期间，18岁至35岁的男性有3700万人。在这个群体中，约有260万人在越南服务。在全部3700万男性中，大约有152,000人自杀。

¶如果5万到10万越南老兵自杀，那意味着3700万人口中三分之一到三分之二的自杀者来自260万人。没有事实证据支持这一说法。

1988年美国疾病控制中心的国会证词中，越南退伍军人自杀的最佳估计是9000人。

¶作为经常访问退伍军人医院的越南退伍军人，我完全理解战争是如何伤害身心的。但是，一切战争退伍军人的问题都应该被视为没有轰动效应，而不是制定政治观点。 BERNARD A.Heene Bayonne，N.J.，1991年2月20日。

老兵 Michael Kelley 1997 撰文论述

A typical example can be found in an article entitled Healing My Own Wounds, an article published in a 1996 issue of The California Zephyr. Among its otherwise thoughtful observations is a statement emblematic of a general misrepresentation now the cause of severe heartburn among many of us whom it colors. Without attribution of any sort, the author emphasizes our war's tragic legacy by informing us that "Since the end of the Vietnam War, approximately 150,000 veterans have taken their own lives."1

"Reports of large numbers of suicides among Vietnam veterans began to appear in 1980. In that year, a manual on the treatment of post traumatic stress disorder included a statement that more Vietnam combat veterans had committed suicide than were killed in Vietnam. In 1981, [the March 18, issue of the Seattle Times reported] that since their return from Vietnam more than 50,000 veterans had committed suicide. The reported number in [the June, 1985, issue of Discover magazine] was 58,000, and it was 60,000 or more in books published in 1986 [Spencer, D., Facing The Wall] and 1987 [Williams, R., Introduction in Unwinding the Vietnam War: From War Into Peace], In 1987...[CBS 60 Minutes, Vietnam 101, 4 Oct 86] broadcast that more than 100,000 Vietnam veterans had committed suicide. In 1988, a network news anchor [CBS Reports: The Wall Within, 2 Jun 88] asserted that between 26,000 and 100,000 suicides had occurred among Vietnam veterans ‘depending on which reputable source you believe..'" 2 and 3

一个典型的例子可以在一篇名为“治疗我自己的伤口”的文章中找到，这篇文章发表在1996年的“加利福尼亚州西风”上。在其他的深思熟虑的观察中，有一个象征性的陈述，现在是我们许多人的严重胃灼热的原因。作者没有任何归属地，强调了我们的战争的悲惨遗产，告诉我们“自越南战争结束以来，约有15万名退伍军人自杀。”

越南退伍军人自杀事件的大量报告开始出现在1980年。当年，一篇关于创伤后应激障碍治疗的手册包括越南战斗退伍军人自杀死亡人数超过越南被杀的人数，1981年，据“西雅图时报”3月18日报道，自从越南回国以来，已有5万多名退伍军人自杀，1985年6月发表的“发现”杂志报道的数字为58,000，达到6万以上在1986年出版的书籍[Spencer，D.，Facing The Wall]和1987 [Williams，R.，“解开越南战争的介绍：从战争进入和平”，1987年... [CBS 60 Minutes，Vietnam 101，4 10月86]播出超过10万越南老兵自杀，1988年，一个网络新闻主播[CBS报告：墙内，6月2日88]声称，在26,000至100,000自杀发生在越南老兵'取决于哪个声誉好来源你相信.

......  ......  ......

Conclusion

It is the author's opinion that to accept the mythical rates is to abandon intellect and common sense altogether.

Of no small significance in that regard is the fact that high-rate claims remain completely without substantiation of any sort. In all the exhaustive research and reading that went into the preparation of this monograph, not so much as a single shred of verifiable data was ever unearthed that would even remotely suggest Vietnam veterans were killing themselves in greater numbers than our enemy could.

Absent evidence to the contrary, it is impossible to conclude other than that the popularly reported rates of suicide among Vietnam veterans form an urban myth of colossal dimensions. And yet underlying question remains unanswered for us: just how many Vietnam veterans have committed suicide since coming home?

For the sake of argument, presume that one third of all Vietnam veterans are now deceased (a number far above the actual total). If 1,000,000 Vietnam veterans were now dead from all causes, then the AMA/CDC 1.23% overall rate suggests that only 12,300 of those deaths would be the result of suicide.

One VA study indicates that as of 1983 there were fewer than 9,000 Vietnam veteran suicides, and that "...no more than 20,000 Vietnam veterans died from suicide from discharge through 1993" (emphasis added). It goes on to say that even if all Vietnam veteran reported accidental death (only 5% of all veteran deaths, including single-driver car accidents) were presumed to be suicide and included in the suicide total, that total could not exceed 24,000 through the year 1993. 1

Based on the 1997 Australian mortality study and our own VA's 1996 mortality statistics, the actual total mortality of Vietnam veterans (including KIA) as of January 1996 appears to lay in a range of from 208,010 to 363,100. Net of KIA, the range is 150,010 to 305,100. When we apply the overall average suicide rate of 1.23% predicted by the CDC/AMA studies to those totals, we see the following predicted suicide totals for the period ending January 1, 1995:

Total predicted suicides based on US VA data - 1.23% of 305,100, or 3,752 

Total predicted suicides based on the Australian data - 1.23% of 150,010, or 1,845

Given what verifiable data is now available, it would seem reasonable to estimate that as of 1996, a total of somewhere between 2,000 and 20,000 Vietnam veterans had taken their own lives and that the most probable total is less than 4,000, but in any case does not exceed 1.23% of all Vietnam veteran deaths.

结论

作者认为，接受神话费率是放弃智力和常识。

这方面的意义不小，是因为高比率的要求完全没有任何证据。在编写本专着的所有详尽的研究和阅读中，并没有发现一个单一的可验证数据碎片，甚至远远表明越南老兵自杀的数量远远超过我们的敌人。

如果没有相反的证据，那就不可能得出这样的结论：越南退伍军人中流行的自杀率形成了庞大的城市神话。然而，根本的问题仍然没有得到解答：有多少越南老兵回家后自杀了？

为了争辩，假设所有越战老兵中有三分之一已经死亡（远远高于实际总数）。如果1,000,000越南退伍军人现在死于各种原因，那么AMA / CDC的总体比率为1.23％，表明这些死亡人数中只有12,300人是自杀的结果。

一项弗吉尼亚州的研究表明，截至1983年，越南老兵自杀的人数不到9000人，“......不超过20000名越南老兵死于自1993年以来的自杀”（强调增加）。接着说，即使所有越南老兵报告意外死亡（包括单车司机在内的所有老兵死亡人数中只有5％）被认定为自杀，并且被列入自杀总数，那么即使所有越南老兵报告意外死亡总数不超过2.4万1。1993年

根据1997年澳大利亚死亡率研究和我们自己的弗吉尼亚州1996年死亡率统计数据，截至1996年1月，越南退伍军人（包括起亚）的实际总死亡率似乎在208,010至363,100之间。起亚网，范围是150,010至305,100。当我们将CDC / AMA研究预测的总体平均自杀率1.23％应用于这些总数时，我们看到截至1995年1月1日的期间的以下预测自杀总数：

根据美国弗吉尼亚州的数据预测的自杀总数 - 305,100或3.752的1.23％

根据澳大利亚数据预测的自杀总数 - 150,010或1.455的1.23％

鉴于现在有什么可以证实的数据，估计到1996年为止，总共有2000至20000名越南老兵自杀了，而最可能的总数还不到4000人，似乎是合理的，但无论如何越南老兵死亡人数不得超过1.23％。

http://www.ndqsa.com/suicide.html

文章伊始，作者引述马克·吐温名言：

The principal difference between a cat and a lie is that a cat has only nine lives. 

                    ————  Mark Twain

猫和谎言的主要区别在于，猫，仅仅只有九条命。 —— 马克·吐温