中国悄悄把美国原油进口从关税名单上除去 |
送交者: Altright 2018年08月10日09:36:23 于 [五 味 斋] 发送悄悄话 |
August 10, 2018
China yields to US oil market power
If the U.S. is about to engage in a trade war with China, the Middle Kingdom has just signaled that it wants a limited war by exempting a major (and growing) U.S. export to China: crude oil. The Wall Street Journal reported:
The reason is quite simple: China desperately needs to import oil, and the U.S. is the fastest growing source of crude oil exports on world markets, including China.
That means that China can't shun U.S. oil, even if it wants to strike back at the U.S. in order to maintain the structure of trade regulation and tariffs that enables it to run gigantic trade surpluses with the U.S. Moreover, the new sanctions on Iran mean that China won't be able to replace U.S. crude with Iranian-sourced oil. President Trump, in other words, has accurately read the underlying power dynamics of the U.S.-China trade relationship and understands China's vulnerabilities.
Oil (and soybeans and other big U.S. commodity exports) is traded on global markets, which means that a Chinese tariff on U.S. commodities doesn't destroy the market; it merely shifts supply or demand to other countries:
The same is true for soybeans. If China buys Brazilian soybeans instead of U.S. exports, the markets that Brazil formerly exported to will have to switch to U.S. suppliers. Instead of the predictions of disaster for U.S. farmers, the market price for soybeans in China is now rising, as Reuters notes:
Gee, do you think it's possible that President Trump knows more about negotiating than the nervous Nellies who scream about trade wars damaging America?
If the U.S. is about to engage in a trade war with China, the Middle Kingdom has just signaled that it wants a limited war by exempting a major (and growing) U.S. export to China: crude oil. The Wall Street Journal reported:
The reason is quite simple: China desperately needs to import oil, and the U.S. is the fastest growing source of crude oil exports on world markets, including
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