设万维读者为首页 广告服务 技术服务 联系我们 关于万维
简体 繁体 手机版
分类广告
版主:红树林
万维读者网 > 五 味 斋 > 帖子
全球6500万将死于冠状病毒美去年末模拟
送交者: Pascal 2020年01月24日17:28:31 于 [五 味 斋] 发送悄悄话

1.

image.png

Eric Toner, a scientist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, wasn't shocked when news of a mysterious coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China, surfaced in early January.

Less than three months earlier, Toner had staged a simulation of a global pandemic involving a coronavirus.

Coronaviruses typically affect the respiratory tract and can lead to illnesses like pneumonia or the common cold. A coronavirus was also responsible for the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in China, which affected about 8,000 people and killed 774 in the early 2000s.

"I have thought for a long time that the most likely virus that might cause a new pandemic would be a coronavirus," Toner said.

The outbreak in Wuhan isn't considered a pandemic, but the virus has been reported in Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia. The US reported its first case on Tuesday: a man in his 30s living in Washington's Snohomish County, north of Seattle, who recently visited China.

So far, the virus has killed 18 people and infected more than 630.

"We don't yet know how contagious it is. We know that it is being spread person to person, but we don't know to what extent," Toner said. "An initial first impression is that this is significantly milder than SARS. So that's reassuring. On the other hand, it may be more transmissible than SARS, at least in the community setting."

Toner's simulation of a hypothetical deadly coronavirus pandemic suggested that after six months, nearly every country in the world would have cases of the virus. Within 18 months, 65 million people could die.

A viral pandemic could kill 65 million people

Toner's simulation imagined a fictional virus called CAPS. The analysis, part of a collaboration with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, looked at what would happen if a pandemic originated in Brazil's pig farms. (The Wuhan virus originated in a seafood market that sold live animals.)

The virus in Toner's simulation would be resistant to any modern vaccine. It would be deadlier than SARS, but about as easy to catch as the flu.

image.png

https://www.businessinsider.com/scientist-simulated-coronavirus-pandemic-deaths-2020-1

2.

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

3.

image.png

image.png

image.png

image.png

image.png

https://twitter.com/MgOqkzLBRPLCHyN/status/1220542361912008704

image.png

image.png

image.png

image.png

Image


Image


4.


image.png

image.png

image.png

image.png

https://twitter.com/zhanyoutongmeng/status/1220766525742669824

image.png


5.


Image

image.png

image.png

image.png

Image

Image


Image

Image

image.png


image.png

image.png


image.png

image.png

6.

image.png


image.png


7.


Image


8.


image.png

Image


Image


9.


image.png

image.png

image.png

image.png

image.png


image.png

image.png

image.png

image.png

https://twitter.com/RFA_Chinese/status/1220734107698614272


  已感染九万多人次:

image.png

   image.png

image.png

image.png

image.png

image.png

image.png

image.png

image.png

Image

image.png

https://twitter.com/RFA_Chinese/status/1220734107698614272


0%(0)
0%(0)
标 题 (必选项):
内 容 (选填项):
实用资讯
北美最全的折扣机票网站
贝佳药业美国专利【骨精华】消关节痛、骨刺、五十肩【心血通】改善心绞痛

一周点击热帖 更多>>
一周回复热帖
历史上的今天:回复热帖
2019: 石油,煤,各种矿,都是老天爷按照人的
2019: 发现一个超长单词
2018: 穿普税改才施行半月,已经捷报频传,大
2018: 删了
2017: 我们不再沉默:经历百万妇女大游行后的
2017: 奥巴马是名副其实的卖国贼,参见链接。
2016: 小思:彭丽媛保留了出道前的真诚
2016: [转帖]边境杀手:黑社会以和为贵
2015: 最可笑的谎言,就是孙中山统一了中国
2015: 结束了帝制是好是坏尼堪们冷暖自知,乱党