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CCP Virus Numbers Lie
送交者: 江灵飏 2020年03月30日07:50:11 于 [天下论坛] 发送悄悄话

A math model does not work until and unless it is soundly based on reality. China’s CCP virus numbers are reality-challenged. Here is why.


The CCP Syndrome 

The reigning CCP has been warned of a non-flu virus that behaves like a flu. Now, with the window of early intervention closed, it is too late to make up for the lost time. 


The first patient from Wuhan was identified on November 15, 2019. The R0 (Reproduction number—an infection reproduces itself when spreading around) was estimated at 3.15 for Wuhan. This translated into at least a 30% daily growth rate, according to Dr. Britta Jewell, a British epidemiologist who closely monitored the Wuhan situation. 


Two months lapsed before the CCP’s hammer came down hard on the invisible enemy of its own making. But the infectious anvil laughs at many broken hammers, to paraphrase American poet Carl Sandburg's line.


The SEIR & SEIRS Models

Using the SEIR (Susceptible - Exposed - Infectious - Recovered) model, a joint study by Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and Peking University Health Science Center recently put the number of asymptomatic carriers coming to the United States from Wuhan directly at 9,484 as of March 1, 2020, in the absence of truly successful prevention measures. (Note: A carrier could be of any nationality.)


Were it up to me, I would, for comparison, also use the SEIRS (Susceptible - Exposed - Infectious - Recovered - Susceptible) model that applies to diseases such as rotovirus and malaria, which come with long incubation durations and temporary immunity where “recovery” takes place.


The Reliability Issue 

Combing the official statistics from the CCP regime, I couldn’t help but stare at the gap through which people fell as unreported, untested, unrealized and unrecognized cases. 


Practically ignoring the protocols for medical research, the CCP’s miraculous numbers hide the limitations of the studies concerned. For example, the CCP must know that their test kits are generally defective, as Europeans have found out lately. 


So, it will not be a pretty sight if the number of the unreported and turned-away cases rivals that of the confirmed cases, while the second wave is on the horizon. The CCP has blood on its hands over the virus. Not that it is a surprise, though.


World Health Organization 

Oh, did I mention that the WHO carries water for the CCP? The WHO caves in to the CCP. The CCP caves in to the Tacitus Trap.


*This is a personal posting under my pseudonym, not in my professional capacity.


#You are most welcome to google our research team’s report titled “Transmissibility of the initial cluster of COVID-19 patients in Wuhan, China”; for PDF go to the website of National Collaborating Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCCID); for data analysis: http://github.com/affans/2019-ncov.



——Lingyang Jiang


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