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我学做 Day Trader 的经历和感受
送交者: Pascal 2016年11月05日18:16:37 于 [股市财经] 发送悄悄话

我学、做 Day Trader 的经历和感受


                            2009-03-17 14:18:35   作者: Jane820 (女)


最近因为华人圈里的投资理财专家T(唐炜臻)先生和Y先生的很多事导致Day Trader这个词一下成了最热门的词和话题,看了一些记者或专家写的文章后觉得有必要写篇文章告诉大家一些真实的情况,虽然不是很全面,但却是我的亲身经历和感受。为避免麻烦,我也向记者们学习,文中提到的有关学校和人都用字母。

    我去年5月去R学院学Day Trader的课程,Full Time学4周,2周理论课,2周模拟盘操作。我不知道我学的Day Trader在专家眼里是否算山寨,不管是否山寨,在这篇文章里权且称为Day Trader。我去学Day Trader课程有两个原因,一是我当时身体状况很不好,尿蛋白在不到半年的时间里快速增加,按这样的加速度可能很快就会转成肾炎,这样我需要付出很多体力的按摩师职业就得终止,很多朋友提醒我炒股也很紧张、累,压力很大,我说人总是要承受压力的,如果我的身体不能承受体力上的压力,我

就只能选择承受精神上的压力。第二个原因就是我们找投资理财专家理的财

很失败,我想与其让别人糟蹋自己辛苦挣来的钱还不如自己来糟踏,至少还

可以买到一些经验教训,而且别人再吹牛我也有一点识别能力。


    但天下没有免费的午餐,当我的股票知识等于零时没有人愿意与我谈股票,也许觉得是对牛弹琴吧。一个炒股6年多的朋友Z建议我去上课学习,他说不去上课在股市里交的学费更多,因为他没上课学习之前炒股很盲目,属于“野路子”,后来他到处去上课学习(那时的股票课程很少,基本上是俱乐部式的讲座),买卖股票就有了依据,经过不断地学习和摸索,他6年把本金翻了8倍。他向我推荐R学院的M老师,觉得他讲技术分析师讲得最好,我就是冲着M讲的技术分析去的。当时M开的是Day Trader课,我去听了公开课后就报名了。我学习的那一期已经是第9期,每月一期,算起来应该是2007年9月开始的第一期,当时还有W学院在开Day Trader课程,所以多伦多的Day Trader课程并不是现在才开始的,只是那时没有现在这么受人关注罢了。


    我学Day Trader课程希望学到两个方面的知识:技术分析和怎么做Day Trader,M讲的就是这个,所以对我这个股票盲来说收获还是很大的。我不是喜欢看新闻、大量收集信息、研究基本面的人,我就想依据图、技术分析来买股票。事实上我看那些自称自己不是技术派的人,在做完基本面分析后具体买卖股票时还是离不开看图、做技术分析。混合型的人居多,纯粹的基本面分析和纯粹的技术分析及少。而我对Day Trader的理解实际上

影响了不少朋友,我觉得如果以炒股为生(实际上在多伦多有很多人就是

以炒股为生的,很多人真的是闷声坐家发财的),做波段不是每天都能赚到

钱,但做Day Trader就像一份工作一样,每天都能赚到钱,如果不贪赚点生活费对于专业的Day Trader来说不是很难的事。Day Trader还有一个好处就是没有隔夜风险,每天晚上可以安心睡觉,如果用margin还没有隔夜利息。在今天这样的股市环境里,我的这种观念被我先生和朋友用于炒股和炒外汇都减小了风险,也许该叫山寨版的山寨版吧。


    上M的课之前我和先生都看技术分析的书,也许是我们太笨吧,看半天也看不动,理解不了其中的精华,但M一讲我就清楚了。我的理解能力和表达能力都不差,回家和先生讲,他也学会了技术分析。后来我告诉一个朋友怎样看图和分析,她说她看很久的书都看不懂,我给她讲十分钟她就懂了,看来像我这样的笨人还不止我一个。我知道有不少不需上课学习、无师自通的炒股天才,可惜我不是。我觉得不够的是M只讲解了一些基本的技术指标,如果所有的技术指标都能做个简单介绍就更好,因为每个人都有自己习惯用的技术指标,学习、了解得越多在实际运用时选择就越多。


    半个月的理论课除了技术分析和怎样做Day Trader外还有一些个案分析、对冲、指数、基本Option等,半个月的模拟盘操作就是在Lever 2上进行Day Trader的实战演练,除了钱不是真的一切都跟真的一模一样。一般来说Day Trader有两种赚钱方式,一种是赚手续费,一种是赚差价。赚手续费的Day Trader整天就是不停地打单,打电游手脚快的年轻人比较适合,大多数的Day Trader是赚差价。第一天看1分钟K线图,头晕眼花、心跳加速,所以没有很好的心理素质做不了这个工作,3天后才习惯,现在看一般的线性图还觉得太慢。刚开始时,听M说用1分钟K线图做两根线就出来还觉得不可能,3分钟里要进去又要出来怎么来得及,结果后来我1根线里可以又进又出,3分钟还觉得很闲,可见Training的重要。用几分钟K线图来做取决于每个Day Trader自己的习惯和爱好,M建议最好用3分钟K线图,但R学院提供的交易平台没有3分钟K线图,只能选择1分钟或5分钟,1分钟的机会很多,但假信号也很多,5分钟的假信号少,但一天也许就1~2次机会,大量的时间就是在看盘、等待,所以那些频繁杀进杀出的Day Trader很累,也有不累的Day Trader,看各人的风格和水平。


    我觉得半个月的模拟盘实习对一个新手来说是远远不够的,还没有完全熟悉交易平台和股票的脾性,也没找到适合自己的方法就匆匆上阵做实盘,一般都会亏钱,我自己就是这样。我6月份学完后马上在R学院开户做实盘,交$2000美金押金,每个月的通道费$250,买卖股票手续费$0.7/100

股,每天可支配10万美金操作,每天下午4点收盘前必须无条件平仓。当时

我的Part Time工作只有星期五~星期日两天半,星期一~星期四我就可以在家做Day Trader。最让我感到不爽的是我们对交易平台不熟,M要我们问管理交易系统的Manager,而这位Manager根本不管,大概觉得应该是M上课时应该讲的,两个人互相推诿的结果就是我们在做实盘后吃了亏再回头来自学交易平台的有关细则。7月份我做了一个月就退出了,那个月通道费和手续费等加在一起亏了$900多,退出时费了一点小周折和时间。


    我选择退出有两个原因,一是觉得手续费太贵,二是觉得自己的心态不行。“炒股的智慧”那本书里说炒股最后炒的就是心态,炒股最忌讳的三种人性弱点:贪婪、恐惧和希望,我占了两种:恐惧和希望。我倒是不贪,但胆小怕输,刚学完时初生牛犊不怕虎,杀进杀出,结果赢少亏多,老亏就怕了,怀疑自己,等机会吧,机会真出现了还不敢进去。做错方向了斩仓不坚决,怀抱着希望,结果小亏变大亏。我认真看完“炒股的智慧”这本书后,觉得书中说的三种人性弱点在自己身上不强烈,完全可以克服,才决定去学。但在股市里人性的弱点暴露无遗,甚至成倍放大,这时才知道人要克服自身的弱点有多难、遵守纪律有多难。另外,看Lever 2对人的心理冲击非常大,特别是1分钟K线图,没有坚强的心脏还真难以承受那种冲击和压力。做Day Trader需要反应迅速,在几秒钟时间里就要做出判断和决定,所以我觉得做Day Trader需要良好的心态、心理素质和对股票的感觉,而我当时心态和感觉都不好。做了一个月后我觉得很累,我想也许自己不适合做比较紧张的Day Trader,相对比较平缓的波段或Option可能更适合我这种人。但这一个月几乎每天对着Lever 2,我还是有很大的收获,此后我看K线图、技术分析的水平大大提高。这一点还真不是

吹牛,我看图后做出的分析和判断通常很准,经过很多次验证后我相信这

是Lever 2帮我建立了一些对股票的感觉。


    所以我不太认同找理财专家理财就要想到亏、而不是想着赚的说法,因为我看到很多在专家们眼里只属业余水平的“炒股爱好者”在赚钱,专家们在亏钱的时候他们还是在赚钱。我知道有些专家能够、也在帮客户赚钱,但遗憾的是自己无缘结识或将钱转投其门下。一个以炒股为生十多年的朋友说:现在的世道都说是亏钱,但如果在这样的世道都不能赚钱我不能原谅自己。同样是以炒股为生,难道“玩”别人钱的专家应该比“玩”自己钱的业余差?专家比不过业余不感到汗颜吗?人非圣贤孰能无过,但既然选择了这个职业就得赚多亏少,不能亏多赚少,否则专家也和我一样的心理素质和水平,是不是应该知难而退改行呢?其实在我看来,不管是专家还是业余,赚钱才是硬道理,能比较稳定赚钱的就是专家。


    对R学院我不想做任何评价,但我知道的3个老师讲课都讲得不错,M讲股票的技术分析和Day Trader,他在中国时是机构操盘手,来加拿大后自己做了几年Day Trader,后来出来讲课,有人说他没有任何实际经验是不对的。我曾听班上的一个同学说麦老师炒股实盘做不赢学生(他自己从来不忌讳承认这一点),另一个同学说:好教练不一定是好球员。当朋友Z问我听M的课感觉怎样时,我告诉他这段对话,他说:我们要找的就是好教练而不是好球员。不管M的实盘水平怎样,他讲课讲得很好,我还为此特意打电话感谢朋友Z向我推荐了一个好老师使我节省了收集资料、到处去试听的时间。我先生在R学院听了Option的课,他觉得讲课的老师G讲得很好。朋友Z不知在哪里已经听过外汇课程,结果又在R学院交钱听外汇课,据他说讲外汇课的老师讲得很好,他反复听了3遍。他现在在做外汇的Day Trader(山寨版),每天赚点生活费没问题。这些仅仅只是我们的个人看法,每个人的感觉会不同,所以如果有人想学,可以根据自己的程度、爱好、想学什么内容来选择学校和老师,多试听几家再选择。


    在我看来Day Trader既不是赌博、洪水猛兽,也不是发家致富的捷径,它就是一种职业、一份工作,要做好这份工作需要良好的心理素质和一定的专业水平。我现在做Massage的技术、力量来自于多年的刻苦钻研和痛苦磨炼,做Day Trader也一样需要刻苦钻研和痛苦磨炼,不是每个人都有做Massage的天分、都能做好,同样也不是每个人都能做Day Trader,也许某天我还会再次研究、尝试Day Trader,但现在我还做不好。我知道的Day Trader既有赚钱的也有亏钱的,我觉得很正常,每个赚钱的都有其自己赚钱的“招”,每个不赚钱的也自有其不赚钱的道理。不管采用哪种形式、哪种金融产品操作,在股票市场能够赚钱的人都是花了无数心血、经历过无数痛苦才磨练出来的,他们把炒股当成职业、工作而不是赌博。正是因为觉得炒股不是赌博我才去学习的,因为我没有赌性。如果不做分析、没有依据就买卖股票是赌博,做了充分、客观的分析研究后,觉得赚钱的概率大于50%才买卖股票就不是赌博。有赌博心理的人如果炒股时还带着赌博心理,炒股肯定会亏,而且是大亏,就像Y先生那样。如果Y先生真的是媒体上说的那样炒股,那么他就犯了炒股的大忌,他就不是什么投资专家而是赌徒。股票市场的无穷魅力吸引了无数英雄好汉,也使无数英雄好汉折戟沉沙,但不管是成功还是失败,股友们在一起谈股论金时的快乐是其他任何话题都替代不了的。


2009年3月17日 22:14  nothing


做day trader,1000个里都难有1个成功的,就算开始有点盈利,

迟早还是要还回去的。还是趁早打消这念想吧


2009年3月18日 00:45  枫叶凡尘

哈哈,,我知道M是哪个老师,R是哪家学院!谢谢你的好文章!很真实!有切身感受啊!


2009年3月18日 12:50  bbbbbb

你很幸运,一个月后及时退出,再作下去,你的损失就不是900 学费1300了!


2009年3月18日 18:46  passby

博主,你好!你的文章很详实,我最近失业了,也在考虑用这个机会转行,我以前一直想学day trading 却没时间,现在想学却不知从哪儿开始。看你这篇文章挺实在,我也想去这个学校听课,如果你不介意的话,麻烦发送学校名称到我的邮箱xinfu_ca AT yahoo.com( please replace AT with @)


2009年3月19日 11:07  犇犇

我以前做Day Trader时的公司对应聘者要求很高,但六个月后留下来也只是1/20。后来自己开的Trading Firm对应聘者的门槛低了,毕业率就更低了。能否成功除了能力以外,经济实力与心态更重要。我的经验——平均6个月的培训期,6个月没有收入。如果妄想开始就能赚钱,结果一定是失望的。实际上成功的Trader花在培训期的时间一般很长,我最好的几个Trader当初花在培训上的时间就超过1年。


http://blog.51.ca/u-137674/2009/03/17/%E7%A7%BB%E6%B0%91%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%E4%B9%8B%E7%90%86%E8%B4%A2%E2%80%94%E6%88%91%E5%AD%A6%E3%80%81%E5%81%9Aday-trader%E7%9A%84%E7%BB%8F%E5%8E%86%E5%92%8C/



Inline image

Image result for one day in the life of a day trader

Image result for one day in the life of a day trader


作者:TemetNosce

链接:https://www.zhihu.com/question/24424887/answer/27771756
来源:知乎

我是做电子化交易的,2010年底入行,也算day trading吧。毕竟latency不是micro seconds量级的。

12年报税的时候我走进报税公司,在预约的accountant面前坐下。他问我是什么职业?我说我是quantitative analyst。他说我知道,你的title里写了。你具体是干什么的?我说我是trader,我trade stocks。


他微微叹了一口气说:“I was once a trader. 

I traded equities in India." 我惊讶地问你为什么

不继续做下去,在美国trade stocks? 他说 " You 

know, equity trading is a job for the young 

people." 



我觉得这是对trader这个职业最好的写照。

我们做电子交易的非常稳定,入行三年多,除去最开始完全不知道自己在干什么的几个月,亏损的天数用一只手都能数过来(除去服务器bug崩溃这种,那就没办法了)。每一天上万笔交易,几百只股票,就仿佛一个个战场让人肾上腺素飙升。做对还是做错,P&L不会说谎,一个人很难在短时间内看到自己决定的后果,day trading可以。不管你怎么粉饰自己,不管你的ego多么强,市场都会把你的错误血淋淋地呈现,不给你任何否认或狡辩的机会。所以在这三年多时间里,我每天都经历的无数个自省的过程,给我的感觉是,这三年比之前十年成长的都多。

这一行的竞争异常激烈,曾几何时,prop shops都喜欢招职业运动员。trading和比赛或者战场没有任何的区别:残酷。你必须go aggressive或者go home。即使是同一个公司的兄弟,当我们打开软件开启策略,竞争就开始了。你不能赚钱你就被淘汰,不管你多么有经验,入行多少年。

在我入行的2010年末,day trading和 HFT(高频交易)已经走过了最好的时光。这行最开始大约在两千年,交易所用分位制替代了分数制,业界大佬和刚接触电子交易的dealer们发现了交易机会。听我的前老板说,他们2004年左右写了个策略进行美加市场间套利,然后在两年后彻底不赚钱了。这或许是这行很好的写照:策略在短时间之内彻底过时。江湖传言,Citadel有一个运行十年并且还在赚钱的策略,这简直可以用传奇来形容。一般的策略也就2-3年。随着2007年的交易所改革,大量的floor trader开始了day trader生涯,监管的漏洞让大量的broker dealer如雨后春笋般兴

起,day trading和hft赢来了最好的时光。我听说08年的时候我们公司的

trader一天可以赚1万多美元,好的时候甚至能到4万多。但好景不常,

为大家的策略都差不多,为了更好地execution,这行演变成了拼速度和拼尔虞我诈能力的arm race,而那些付不起高昂线路费用的小trader被迅速淘汰,这就是我入行时候的光景。

这行非常的残酷,一个prop shop招100人进去,大概90个都在前6个月淘汰了。知乎上很多人在股票里亏了钱觉得无助,跑上来问怎么赚钱?事实是,没有答案,放弃吧,做点别的——是的,没有人可以帮你。也许你缺乏运气,就犹如高考失利,但没人会管你,你会被淘汰。剩下的10个能撑过2年的也就3-5个,但是2年后市场风格变了(策略有效期一般2-3年),

也不一定能撑过5年。一个人要指望这行做到老,几乎是完全不可能的

事情。业界大佬倒下的多了,我曾经实习的地方,一家100多个trader的

prop shop,也在去年轰然倒塌。

trader就如同士兵。每个人都向往冲锋陷阵,但你真的做好牺牲的准备了吗?没有任何演习,没有任何理论知识能保证你远离死亡,取得胜利。而且,有谁能当一辈子士兵呢?

Trading is a job for the young people.

另外,这行非常那啥,具体的
@杨博麟已经说了,是这样。尔虞我诈太正常,能找到信任的人合作非常难。这行没有任何操守可言,谁会在钱和美德之间选择美德?Seriously,你真的愿意放弃100万选择美德?我这几年

经历过的应该也是所有day trader经历过的,被忽悠被坑被骗被朋友出

卖,简直就是一部血泪史。好在收获也是很多的,也学会了很多战斗经

验。

回顾我入行这几年,真是机缘巧合。在市场上赚钱的方法千千万,但你必须有运气才能发现几个。幸运的是我发现了一两个,在不断改进下现在还在赚钱。监管的改变,漏洞的改变,分分钟就能让一个人从天堂到地狱,所以我时刻都有危机感,不会大手大脚花钱。不管赚再多都让我不会自我膨胀,不管赚再少也不会让我自怨自艾。每天经手那么多钱,反倒是觉得钱像数字了,就那么回事。也就是说,正确地认识自己,不对未来恐惧,谦卑地对待金钱,也许是我做这行最大的收获吧.


https://www.zhihu.com/question/24424887


拔萝卜 热爱动漫的交易员

8 人赞同

很刺激,P&L每天上上下下(其实习惯了),赚钱的感觉很爽一般不会觉得累,除了输钱的时候,所有的疲惫都会一下子涌出来。

这可能是全世界最爽和最不爽的工作。如果你足够牛,每天只用动动鼠标你就赚了别人一个月的钱,没有老板也没有客户,想去哪就去哪,只要有电脑和足够快的网络就可以赚钱。。。这些不是不可能,也不是我吹牛逼,但是据我所知只有很少很少的日内交易员可以。

同时要说,市场大多数的人是赔钱的。。。而且错误的操作会让你辛辛苦苦挣来的钱一下蒸发掉,因为这是一个和日常认知时常背离的游戏,反人性。不是聪明就能赚钱的,也不是你认识多少人别人教你就学的会。总之,是一种很特别品质的人。

同时特别刺激,在重大事件发生的时候,如果操作得当也许你会一小时赚一年的钱,相反也可能会亏很多。。。有时候就像一个疯狂的赌场。


da xu 赚了是命好,不亏是本事。哪里最低止那里…

1 人赞同

只能告诉你 这行做好了很赚钱 做不好 纯是浪费时间 精力


匿名用户

9 人赞同

以前在做,现在仍在做。

这行的来钱之快,是那些庸庸碌碌的打工仔无法想象的,我父母一开始更

是不相信我能赚这么多,以为我在搞违法的事情。他们是国有企业里老实巴

交的工人,辛苦几十年,年薪不过十多万,而我半年的收入就番他们好多

倍,牛逼的交易员年薪百万人民币很轻松。我们这群人,只有二十多岁的年

纪,拿着大公司高层老头子们一样的年薪。

的确很累,也很刺激,唯一的担心是,年纪大了以后,反应速度慢下来了,做什么行业还能这么快速的赚钱呢……


一个职业Day Trader的感受


看到有很多人在做daytrading或是short term trading, 所以觉得写写自己的策略,或许对大家有点用。我在福宝外汇工作了一年半,FxPro可以说是street上最大的daytrading公司了,其他公司和他比简直是太小了(我们公司是允许持有股票过夜的,大部分trader都有这个习惯,这也是我们和其他公司的不同)。几个月前,我离开了这个公司,离开时在公司的竞赛中排第二十。(是按照每股盈利来算)为什么要离开呢?


1)主营业务已经转向了,trading已经不再是主要的业务了,将来的上市也不会包括trading这个部门;


2)公司的运作变得十分保守,做得好的得不到应该的提升(是运作资金方面);
3)daytrading 在将来的日子中将不是很容易赚钱,个人觉得,交易的方式应该随着股市的变化而变化,而daytrading只是交易的一种方式,太局限,就会有害。(五月份面世了一个AMEX的derivative floor trader的职位,数学,反应都没有问题,最后的原因就是我有一年半的daytrading experience,真的是哭笑不得。)
福宝,公司给钱运作,自己不承担任何风险,这个真的是世界上最好的学习机会。尽管daytrading的time frame仅仅是一天,但是所有的策略都是适用于更长时段的投机。最最关键,我学会了控制风险,扩大收益这个理念。(人生不就是赌博吗?)
下面我就随便写写我的一些策略,已经公司中高手的策略。(公司在全盛时期,有20%的交易员赚超过百万一年,我旁边的两位赚了三千万。公司95%是犹太人,犹太人的确牛呀!)我就随便写写,大家就随便看看。

第一,相对强弱

我相信一句话:强者越强,弱者越弱!股票市场同样遵循这个道理。这个也是我一进公司后学到的第一课:相对强弱,买比市场强的股票,卖空比市场弱的股票,在大趋势涨的情况下,买入多于卖空,在大趋势跌的情况下,卖空多于买入。

其实我觉得这也就是professional和非professional之间的区别:非professional喜欢买跌得多的股票,越跌越买,professional正好相反。(当然,招无定式,我的trainer就是一个专买这种暴跌的股票的主,当然,我会把他的策略也写写。)

策略有了,怎么用呢?告诉大家一个最简单的办法,就是比较:怎么比,要做nasdaq多的话,就把你的股票和nas100指数比。先说daytrading 吧:我喜欢把index future的图放在股票图的上面,这样一比,你就可以看出来了。当index往下跌的时候,你的股票不怎么跌,当index breaks low的时候,你的股票却没有,这…就叫强势股。为什么?我怎么知道,但是肯定是有原因的,但是我们这些小喽喽就不知道了。(现在我有点知道了,今天一个 credit Suisse zurich的option trading desk叫我给他买几十万股某个股票,同时让我不要show hand,just get in slowly, 你说这种时候,外面的人知道什么呀!)大家要是还不明白,就去看看Jesse Livermore的那本书。
说到这里,我就随便举个例子吧!今天的市场很弱(8/12/04),但是qcom却很强,所以要是我赌市场涨,我就会买qcom, 因为这个就算我错了,他也不会跌很多。你们说semi跌得最多了,要不要买他们,我说这是找死,万一你判断错了,你就等着哭吧!
对于时间段长一点的炒家,也没什么问题,比较6个月的图,一看你就明白了谁强谁弱了。为什么?还是那句话,我也不知道。我相信市场,我相信市场的反应,所以我相信这个策略。

第二,大势和投机

说实话,在我做交易的时候,大势我关注的不是很多,尤其是对daytrading 或一些比较短线交易。在每段时间,大势都会有个趋势,是uptrend or downtrend,我只需要知道这个就行了。每天进公司,最怕最怕就是已经感觉到市场会怎么走了。为什么呢?因为在这个时候,我就已经有了presumption,因此,我在交易的时候,判断就不会客观了。(有一个HH)曾经说过一句非常好的话,就是“我只相信事实”。对,判断是判断,事实就是事实。很多时候,事实是不同于判断的,这个时候,我们就要学会接受事实,而不是死要面子不愿认错。XX上有几位就是这样的主,我就不提是谁了,希望他们也不要看到。很多人这段时间觉得老X经常变化自己的观点,我觉得这样是对的,没有人是永远对的,只要发现错了,就要改。

第三,集中注意力

这个不是要大家像小学时候听老师讲课集中注意力。我是要让大家去了解自己要做的股票。刚进公司的时候,喜欢做有消息和新闻的股票,因为他们动的比较快,不过到后来发现做了一段时间并没有真正的收获。为什么?我把相同的策略套用道不同的股票上,虽然都是有好消息的股票,虽然他们的pattern很相似,但是行动却是大相径庭,为什么?

原因太多了,对于短线交易,股票背后的market market or specialist的性格都会对股票的行为有影响。
到后来,我主要开始做sector trading,我比较喜欢做semi, oildrillers, gold sectors, 因为他们动的快,动的一致,所以好研究,有做头.这里我又要提到Jesse Livermore了,我记得他就说过要对自己做的股票了解的透透的,最好就想了解自己的女朋友一样去了解他,从外到内,再从内到外!

怎么了解呢?我觉得对基本面的了解就免了,除非你想抱着股票到头发白。很多时候,你想去了解基本面,但是你很难了解得清楚,要是一知半解,还不如不要了解,要是真得要破产,我觉得在很早之前就会有预兆,你老人家就跟着跑得了。要是真的碰到倒霉的情况,那就只能烧香拜佛了。我记得,在去年的某一个星期一,DNA有了一个非常好的消息,但是在上星期五的时候被大家狠狠的smash了,所以,很多trader都卖空了这个股票。星期一早上,Bank of America先downgrade这支股票,然后,DNA出来宣布我们怎样怎样了,股票瞬间从35蹦到了将近50,可想而知大家有多惨,有一哥们卖空了5万股,一天将近亏了一百万.你说有什么办法,只能自认倒霉了.这些都是题外话了.怎么了解呢?我觉得关键还是经验,在做的过程中去了解.很多细小的环节都要记住.就说semi 吧,经常会在某个情况下翻转,这个你就要记住,oil driller经常会在某个时候高开低走,这个时候,你老人家就尽情的卖空吧.等到你积累到了一定程度了,你就会非常有数他们的习惯了.可惜的是,并没有很多人做到这一点,我也做得非常得不好,

第四,Long oversold, short overbot stocks

这个是我们的trainer教给我们的.Trainer是个非常好的犹太人,在全盛时期也赚了很多.他的策略其实与我的一开始的理念是有差别的,所以,我刚听的时候非常的排斥.其实这样非常不好,这是题外话了,其实做大事的人,要学会接受不同的意见,要有包容性.

他是我们trader中的例外,他可以持有股票一个礼拜都没有任何问题,看来牛b人就是由特权呀。他的观念就是一只股票在有坏消息的时候,都会有一种惯性,正是因为这种惯性,导致股票有了坏消息会产生oversold的情况.这个时候,你就可以在最快的时间中赚到最多的钱.最经典的战役就是2003年七月和八月的时候,health care sector被totally smashed,股票如AET, UNH, WLP, CVH, ATH, 等等,全部被hair cut了将近20%甚至更多.以这位为首的,毅然挺身而进,大赚了一票.大家要是注意到的话,就会知道情况怎样了.

那什么时候才算是oversold 呢?一般来说,我希望股票越惨越好,最好是惨不忍睹,那就行了.什么叫惨不忍睹,就是这是股票,大跌三天,每天都是大跌,而且,三天能跌掉20%,要使更多的话,那就更好了.这个时候,也就是第四天,开盘的时候非常重要.第一种情况,要使这支股票gap down cedil; 我的上帝,这就是一个杰作,我会奋不顾身的跳进去,因为这个时候的risk/reward是最佳比例,我就算亏,我也不会是大亏,除非是bill gates 那他所有的钱来砸,一般来说,这个时候就卖得人就基本上差不多了.但是记住,这是抢反弹,所以,抢了就要跑,最多放上一天,就足够了.别指望着他能弹过高,不然就有JesseLivermore这样的人来宰你.第二种情况,就是高开,然后最后一群seller进入,但是这个时候,你可以感觉到这时的 seller 就是强弩之末了.这个strategy, 我掌握得不好,每次还是要跟着trainer做才行,大家好好琢磨琢磨,据说这个情况比第一个更好赚钱.
Overbot的股票也是一样的道理.现在关键是大势.不要和大势对着干.大势上,找oversold的股票,大势下,找overbot的股票.这样,你就可以顺水推舟,将风险将为最小.
其实这里的诀窍很多,我也很难一一讲清,希望大家自己多悟.这个策略还是非常牛的。

第五,Pivot Point交易策略

对于大部分floor trader和短线交易员来说,Pivot Point枢轴点)这个是非常重要的指标。他通过公式,代入昨日intra-day high, intra-day low, and closing price, 来得到这个c,然后通过这个点来衍生出上面三层resistance lever,以及下面三层support level。我相信这里人应该知道这个概念,所以我就不具体解释了。

这个策略对于短线交易非常有效,但是他也有它的局限性。最关键就是股票的交易量,交易量越大,这个策略越有效。所以,对做s&p future, 或做semi sector的同志们,这个就是你们每天心中要默记的数字,或者应该说是level。有了这些level,你就可以安排你的策略:假如你觉得市场会有一个反弹,你就可以在将近这些support level的位置上开始买入,因为在这个时候,你的风险和收益的比例是最佳的。在股市中,没有什么是100%肯定的,所以,控制好风险就是一切,对于我来说,假如潜在收益/潜在风险超过3,我就会杀入。其实这个还是很简单的。

第六,风险和收益

我曾经推荐过Tony Oz’s “the stock trader”,不知道大家还记不记得。他实地记录了他的20天的交易情况,基本上都是day trading,但是我觉得他的理念适用于任何投机者。(我发现我们中国的同志们老是喜欢在名头上分来分去,什么投资者,投机者,什么day trader, swing trader,其实要学会包容,互通,因为投机的理念都是一致的,那就是控制风险,扩大收益。)
我最喜欢他的一个原因就是他的理念最精髓,他的策略最简单。他的理念就是他进入一只股票的前提就是他的潜在收益要大于他的潜在风险,量化后,他就将比例列为3:1,他的具体策略就是,在一只股票接近主要support level的位置上long, 他的stop loss会在这个support level的下方一点,这个就是他的潜在风险,假如股票上方resistance level与这个入点差距是潜在风险的三倍或是更大的话,他就会进入。非常简单,对不对,但是能够discipline地坚持做到的很少。为什么?很多时候,在做决定的时候,感情代替了理智。因为自己觉得这支股票有100%的可能在下一时刻要涨,然后就忘记风险和收益的毅然决然的杀了进去。其实这个股票的风险和收益比例在当时不是很favorite。

第七, 一剑封喉

Trading就是一个越简单越好和讲究timing的职业,或者说有点像杀手剑客的感觉:西门吹雪一剑封喉,多一剑就是失误。所以这些基本上就是我用的。

http://www.numgame.com/c_day_trader.html

http://www.ttfanwen.com/info_28/fw_4170002.html


                当日证券交易成功率?


What’s the Day Trading Success Rate? 

The Thorough Answer


Posted on June 16, 2016  by  Cory Mitchell, CMT


文章作者 Cory Mitchell, 2005至2010年在美国一家当日证券

交易公司工作亲身见证,外加2005至2015年期间与多家交易公

司主管、经理交谈,涉及范围约2,000名交易者,皆指向作者统

计出来 —— 证券当日交易中持续稳定盈利者占比 3.5 - 4.5%。


Considering day trading, and wondering what the day trading success rate is? Here’s the thorough answer. Not general or contrived statistics, but rather the success (and failure) rates I witnessed while working at a day trading firm from 2005 to 2010*. I’ve also conversed with several other trading firm owners/managers on their success rates between 2005 and 2015 (about 2000 traders total). Numbers varied slightly, but were in line with the day trading success rates I discuss below.

While the article focuses on day trading, because I have the most data on it, I assume the same stats (approximately) hold true for swing traders or any short-term speculative trading endeavor.

Below I discuss:

  • Of all the traders who passed the interview process for the firm and started training/trading, how many became profitable.

  • Of those that become profitable, how many are consistently profitable (enough to make an income).

  • Problems with my numbers, factors we need to consider and some revisions which may be more accurate.

  • How a mentor may increase (or not increase) the odds of success.

  • Is there a difference in the success rate of men and woman (OH YES!).

  • Is time a factor? Of those who were unprofitable in their first full year, how many of those who kept at it (practicing for more than a year) ultimately became successful.

  • Why I think these numbers are applicable to anyone who wants to start trading at home, with a mentor, or for a firm.

This is a long article, but I suggest reading it all. The actual failure/success rate isn’t really what matters. What you need to know is how to be part of the successful traders, and avoid being in the unsuccessful category. How to do this is intertwined throughout the article.

Analyzing the Day Trading Success Rate: The Day Trading Revolving Door

While anyone can be successful, most people who enter the trading world don’t have the discipline and patience to practice a strategy (or set of strategies) until those strategies produce a consistent profit. While people are told they won’t be successful overnight, most new traders don’t actually believe that. They have an idea in their head that they’re smarter, have it worked out, and will be able to make money quite quickly. Nope. You may make the “standard” 10% per year or so…but it’s pretty tough to make a living on a $30,000 account making 10% a year. We expect more (see How Much a Day Trader Can Make…but read it later).

You may have heard 90% or 95% of trades lose money (see Why trader Lose and Why the Market Requires It), or some other seemingly high statistic. From what I’ve personally seen this is accurate. While I traded for a day trading firm, about 10 people came in ever couple months for trader training, or about 60 per year. For a five year period that means about 300 people came to the trading firm and took (or at least started) the training program. Some traders I talked with think the actual number is higher; that is was closer to 400 people.

Only 14 (women and men, including myself) moved on to become regular traders, producing consistent profits for at least several years. That’s about a 3.5% to 4.5% success rate. Approximately another 10 made money, but not enough to keep them trading. If success is defined as just being negligibly profitable (for at least a couple months) the success rate is about 6% to 8%. But who wants to trade to just break even?

Also consider that (stock market) day trading firms in Canada don’t necessarily require a deposit from traders. None of these traders put up their own money to trade. They were able to trade firm capital; more firm capital would be allocated to each trader based on performance. This is a much more favorable model than what most day traders have at home, trading their own money, which usually ranges from $2000 to $30,000 (although if trading futures or forex, $10,000 can produce a good monthly income…but you will need more to day trade stocks). In other words, conditions were very favorable–oh, and because we had more capital, we traded bigger positions, providing for greatly reduced commissions compared to what a normal stock day trader would face.

Favorable indeed, and yet only 3.5% to 4.5% were successful.

Women, this stat doesn’t really apply to you since most of these day traders were male and this stat applies to ALL people who came trade. The day trading success rate for women specifically is discussed in a bit.

Day Trading Success Rate…only 4.5%? Things to Consider

We need to consider some things when looking at a 3.5% to 4.5% success rate though. Day trading wasn’t something the firm wanted you to do part time, so you had to show up and trade during market hours. Many day traders who only wanted to trade part time may have taken the training then left (these contribute to the large 95.5% failure rate)–some may have gone on to be successful. Even one trader that left and went on to become successful at day trading would increase the success percentage. It’s likely some of those that came to the firm and left did go on to become successful day traders, so we need to assume that the actual success rate is slightly higher.

Also, I live in a city with lots of high paying (oil-related) jobs, so trading for no pay until profitable likely didn’t sit well with some people. Some people lured away by other jobs could have been successful had they stayed. Therefore, we have some blind spots in my statistic. For those willing to give it a valiant effort though, we can estimate the chance of success (consistent profitability) is between about 4% and 5%.

The firm didn’t provide a lot of strategy guidance. They left it up to the trader to decide how they would trade. Training was mostly order types, market basics and software related. Therefore the training would be similar to what most people would get from a high level introduction to the stock/forex market course. Therefore, I believe the 4% to 5% day trading success rate is representative of all traders who attempt trading without a mentor (discussed next).

Regardless of the reason, very few people who wanted to trade actually become successful. Whether they took other jobs, didn’t feel they got adequate training, or just didn’t make enough money isn’t really the point. They came to trade, but ultimately left with nothing in their pockets while people sitting next to them continued to make money. To me that is the real statistic. Whether you’re lured away, your spouse convinces you not to do it, success doesn’t happen as quickly as you want it, you hit a string of bad luck…the excuse doesn’t matter; the cold hard number is that only about 4.5% (the half way point of 4% and 5% concluded above) of traders who start day trading will end up being able to make something of it.

If you put in little time, practice or capital into your trading, your success rate is close to 0%. The 4.5% stat is for people who give it a valiant effort, put in time and practice, and start with a reasonable amount of capital–all which the firm required/gave.

Day Trading Success Rate with a Mentor

With a mentor, the success rate will increase, but it still ultimately dependents on the individual’s drive to become successful and to put in the work required. With a good mentor (here’s who I recommend), I estimate the successful rate maycreep up to 8% to 10%…but I don’t actually have enough data to say definitively. 8% to 10% may seem low for having someone mentor you, but think of it this way: that mentor has doubled, your chances of success over going at it alone. Be careful how statistics are used. Someone trying to solicit you could say “We can increase your chance of success by 167%!” Sounds impressive, but you originally had a 4% chance at success, you now you have about a 10.68% chance. This latter statement gives you much more information than the sales pitch statement.

I am still leery about the (up to) 10% success rate with a mentor though. While potential day traders didn’t get a lot of strategy guidance at the firm, the new traders did have full access to sit and trade beside successful traders. Traders at the firm would help out new traders (mentoring them), but you can tell someone what to do, but you can’t force them to do it. Then again, being a good mentor is more than just being a successful trader. Some of my greatest trading lessons have come from non-traders; they were just good teachers, and understood what I needed.

Arguably, you don’t need strategy guidance either. I have developed my own strategies, and often input from others has actually hindered that objective personal strategy development. A bit of guidance is fine, but since you must ultimately trade on your own anyway (someone else can’t trade for you), starting off with a do-it-yourself-trading-approach isn’t a bad thing.

That said, with a good mentor, the day trading success rate creeps up to a likely 9% (half way between the 8% and 10% discussed above). Now some mentors are better than others. Some may offer absolutely no benefit, and you have the same 4.5% chance at success as everyone else. Other mentors may be very good, pushing your possible success rate up 25%.

But not everyone can land a great mentor, so the average success rate (with a mentor) is still about 9% for those that give it some effort. The mentor can’t help you though if you don’t help yourself.

Day Trading Success Rate: Men Vs. Women

If there is one thing I can definitively say, it is that women make much better traders than men. The women who traded at the firm didn’t make as much as the top male traders, but overall the women were consistent and had a staggering 40% success rate.

Only 10 women came to trade (smaller sample size) while I was at the firm. Four were able to make a living off the markets. The high success rate of women actually drove up the overall success rate discussed above. If we just look at males, the successful rate drops to 3.4% . So we have a 3.4% success rate for males (10 out of 290…because 290 of the 300 total traders were males), and a 40% success rate for women (4 out of 10). So the overall success rate is still useful to men (still in the 4.5% range), but not as useful for a woman…since a woman’s success rate is likely to be higher than the overall day trading success rate indicates.

I verified these stats with multiple current or former trading firm managers; their stats were very close to those mentioned above, creating a larger and viable woman-trader sample size.

That said, since the sample size is still smaller–subject to greater variation–I will keep the 40% statistic, and say that with a solid mentor it’s quite likely about 4 out of 10 women who want to day trade, and give it a good shot, could be successful at it. In a male-dominate industry, the women who came to trade typically really wanted to do it, and were serious about it. Many of the men who try day trading are doing so with a “I will give it a shot…” attitude. Not a good start. Be serious and commit to the process–just as if you were starting a brick-and-mortar business–if you want to have good odds of day trading success.

Women simply don’t seem to have the mental blocks and ego barriers that males have (some do). They are more readily able to learn from their mistakes. A man will repeat the same mistake over and over again, unable to admit to himself he is wrong because of his ego. Women also listen to those they consider experts; men usually consider themselves experts at everything already, so while they may listen to what a real expert says, they typically don’t do what is taught (most, not all men).

Trading firms and brokers would be well advised to more actively recruit women traders. They’re pretty, smell nicer, and for some strange reason male performance (and behavior) tends to improve when there are some ladies on the trading floor.

Day Trading Success Rate: Is Time a Factor?

Very few people who were unprofitable for even several months continued to trade. For most of those that became successful, about 6 months of approximate full-time hours (about 800 hours) seemed to be the magic number where they flipped the switch and began making money. If a trader continued to put in a lot of hours beyond 6 months, but was still unsuccessful, how did they ultimately fair?

Only 7 traders who were unsuccessful within the first year, continued to trade beyond the 12 month mark. 1 of those 7 ultimately became consistently profitable. Determination does improve odds, in this case up to about 14% (discussions with other firm managers reveals stats between 10% and 20%–sample sizes are small because very few people put in the hours required for more than a year).

Unfortunately, time put in isn’t the same as practice. Most of these traders simply continued to make the same mistakes over and over again, failing to learn from their mistakes. Following that model, they could have traded for 10 years and things wouldn’t improve. Some people do learn from their mistakes, it just may take them a year or more to figure it out.

If you don’t see initial success, keep at it for more than a year, and your success rate is equal to what you would expect working with a mentor. I should note, the one successful trader out of this seven, traded unsuccessfully for slightly more than 2 years before becoming consistently (and sizably) profitable.

The Odds of Day Trading Success: What it Takes

Want be in the 4.5% of the day trading success stories? Here’s a taste of what it takes.

All these people who failed, and who were successful, were putting in 6 to 7 hours a day of practice and learning. So you will definitely need to put in time and practice if you want to become successful. As we will learn later though, it is up to you to practice the right way (you can tell someone what to do, as the firm did, but unless they are willing to do it, no amount of practice will improve their skill). I constantly see this on the golf course. Guys have played for thirty years–lots of practice on the course and on the range–yet are no better than the day they started (and they bitch about it). Practice doesn’t make perfect. Instead, perfect practice only leads to improvement. These guys aren’t putting in the right type of practice, and most want-to-be-day-traders aren’t either.

It is only later on–often a year or more–when trading becomes a truly part time gig. You may only trade for 1 to 3 hours a day if day trading (because those are the best day trading hours), or 20 minutes if swing trading (since you can leave once your orders are set), but when you start out there is so much to learn and practice that putting in another couple hours of going over trades and refining methods is required. Or, if only putting 1 to 3 hours a day during the week, then you will probably need to put in some hours on the weekend as well. That’s what this new day trader did for several months, and is showing promise after several weeks of live trading. You need to put in the work if you expect it to payoff.

As discussed above, many people (men) come to trading with a “I will give it a shot…” attitude. This will very likely lead you to lose whatever capital you have deposited in your brokerage account. The odds of day trading success are heavily against you. The lure of making money each day in only a couple hours gets people’s minds spinning with possibilities. They imagine stopping everything and just trading on a beach somewhere. Well, sand, water, sun glare and laptops don’t mix. Trading is a job. The difference is that you don’t get a paycheck unless you’re absolutely on the top of your game. Day trading is often boring, which surprises many people. Without the required stimulus from the market, they create their own, making trades which are outside of what was practiced. Other days, an hour or two of trading can leave you mentally, and physically, exhausted. There is so much information to process in such a short amount of time…and you need to stay totally focused in such conditions as a mistake could cost you dearly.

Day trading isn’t a walk in the park fairy tale. It’s serious business, and the people who do it for a living don’t f*ck around. Day trading is a negative sum game (zero sum if you don’t factor commissions…but commissions and costs exists, making it a negative sum game). If you trade, your profits have to come from someone else losing or giving up a profit. Successful traders have been doing this a long time, and have wiped out many small and new traders. Practiced at taking money, the pro is coming after your orders if he/she thinks he came make a profit of it. Be prepared. Know how you will handle every single situation which may arise, and have a plan for it. Without this sort of preparation, you are a sitting duck, and will join the approximately 96%+ of unsuccessful men, and about 60% of unsuccessful women day traders.

The type of planning required for day trading is what I call “trading beyond the hard right edge.” This concept is outlined in this article: How to Day Trade the Forex Market In Hours or Less a Day. While it uses examples from the forex market, the concepts apply to day trading stocks or futures as well.

Strategies are important to, but so is learning how and when to implement them. For more on strategies and interpreting changing market conditions, see my Forex Strategies Guide for Day and Swing Traders eBook.

Day Trading Success Rate: Final Word

The overall figures indicate that if you are male, you have about a 3.5% chance of success, and with a solid mentor or putting in at least 1 year of (nearly) full-time effort that average could push up to 10%. As discussed though most men come in with the wrong attitude…they are gambling with their time and money, not really committing to the process and hoping they will hit it big quickly (not likely). If you are serious about trading, and commit six months to a year of really self-evaluating your performance and practicing, I believe your odds of success are high. The day trading success rate is low because most people simple don’t give themselves enough time to learn, or they just keep repeating the same mistakes (often in slightly different ways) forever and never improve.

In my experience, and opinion, women have a much higher chance of becoming successful traders than men. Based on personal experience and discussions with other trading firm managers, 40% of women can likely become successful traders if they are serious, determined and wiling to put in the time and practice.

Are these stats perfect, absolutely not. They are averages and cannot be used to ascertain whether a particular individual will be a successful trader. In talking with other successful traders, most of them thought my numbers were high…because they know how hard it is to find consistency, and keep it. Yet there are successful traders who obviously have overcome the odds. Stay disciplined, focused, and have patience on your journey and your chance of success is much higher…just like in any field. That said, not everyone who practices really hard at basketball gets to play in the NBA. The nice thing about trading is that you decide how much you are comfortable with making. While there are guys making millions a year, if you can make a comfortable living, doing what you love, that is what matters.

Best wishes on your journey.

By Cory Mitchell, CMT  Follow me on Twitter @corymitc and check out our Facebook page.

Check out the Forex Strategies Guide for Day and Swing Traders eBook. 

Over 300 pages of Forex basics and 20+ Forex strategies for profiting in the 24-hours-a-day Forex market. This isn’t just an eBook, it’s a course to build your trading skill step by step.

*The firm I worked for has been bought/sold and switched names a few times. All firms from which these stats were derived will remain anonymous.

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7 thoughts on “What’s the Day Trading Success Rate? The Thorough Answer”

  1. Great read, I hope to learn a lot from reading the links you posted along the article. 30% is impressive, and a great figure to remember. Thank you.

    Kind regards,
    Luke

    Reply

  2. Really? I have a 250% return day trading on a 2 year old account which most of those trades took place in the last 4 months after I gave up on virtue or understanding.

    Thats $45k net off your $30k supply for a few months of trading part time.

    If I tried to be a lackey for these fat cats, I certainly would not accept any training since that would not result in future success for me. They want to think they understand when such a thing is a waste of time.

    I added $80k to that account yesterday. The account was $150k at its lowest which started at $250k when I was trying to do it like the “pros.” After giving up on all that, this account is now $1.45m

    Reply

    • Yes, but “most people” are idiots as well. I have a JD and an MBA in finance, and I don’t trade because I feel ill-equipped to do so (in no small part from having read so many articles like this one). Then, not that long ago, I was on an investing sub-Reddit and was shocked at how many of the people there who claimed to be active traders knew virtually nothing about trading. I made a few posts and was welcomed like some sort of omniscient demi-god, and I don’t know very much about trading at all. In a similar fashion, I previously read horrible online reviews about a popular options training video course, but when I read the reviews closer, it was evident that many if not most of the disgruntle purchasers who had posted were people who had no business attending an options seminar (where they purchased the video series) in the first place. This anecdotal evidence caused me to conclude that many people who fail at trading probably shouldn’t be trading in the first place due to a lack of knowledge or understanding, and in my option, those people shouldn’t be counted in the stats because that’s like counting people who jumped from airplanes without parachutes as “failed parachutists” when in fact they were just idiots, not parachutists.

      So I decided to get to the bottom of things and dabble a bit myself just in search of the truth. Using simple MA, MACD, Bollinger band, RSI, and Stochastic indicators I have for the most part consistently been able to determine market direction (with some anomalous exceptions). However, because I have read so many “hellfire and brimstone” articles like this one, I am still apprehensive about serious trading despite feeling pretty confident that I could succeed at it. Any advice, insights, or suggestions would be appreciated. Thanks.

      Reply

    • I agree with most of what you say. WHile I write these “brimstone” articles, I am first to admit that I love trading and have no desire to do anything else.
      To be fair though, I didn’t really know anything when I started. Sure, I had a lot of ideas and things that worked in theory, but when I actually started trading I was given a real reality check. So pretty much everyone is an idiot when they start out…just like when someone starts out in any field. You simply can’t know what you don’t know, and you only get better through practice. So I definitely think that any self-regulating and self-evaluating person (that seems to be somewhat of a rarity?) can be a successful trader….as long as they test out their strategies first in a demo account and then with very small positions in the real market. Increase position size only with profitable consistency. Without these steps, most want-to-be-traders will be out of capital before they even really learn anything. Most people when they start trading find out that trading is mostly psychological. Great strategies are everywhere. What people struggle with is following them. When real money is on the line, and the price is darting all over the place, people start to make mistakes. That is why practice is required.
      So it takes time and self-evaluation, but lots of people are successful at it.

      Reply

    • Great returns are available, no question about that. That’s why I have done this for 12 years. But it is not typical. The numbers don’t lie; most people who try, fail. Everyone trades differently.
      I expect to make about 30%+ per month day trading…that is also discussed extensively on the site. It is important to show what is possible (so thanks for your comments) but it also important to show the risk.

      Reply

  3. Hi Cory,

    Excellent article. As always, i learn a lot from reading you and i have been trading stocks for close to 3 years and thought i knew a lot……now i know i have been making lots of mistakes and not taking the time to learn.

    Again thanks!  Henry

  4. https://vantagepointtrading.com/archives/13922


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