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送交者: 王福贵 2020月01月24日20:31:10 于 [茗香茶语] 发送悄悄话
回  答: 我老人家要开始相信阴毛论了:那个病毒是我军漏出来的! pifu01 于 2020-01-24 19:08:11

Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and
epidemic predictions
Jonathan M. Read1

, Jessica R.E. Bridgen1

, Derek A.T. Cummings2

, Antonia Ho3
, Chris P.

Jewell1
Affiliations:
1. Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School,
Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom.
2. Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida,
Gainesville, United States of America.
3. Medical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow,
United Kingdom.
Correspondence: jonathan.read@lancaster.ac.uk
Key findings
● We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection (RR0) to be significantly
greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of
transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop
increasing.
● We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified,
indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the
difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen
has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for
rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.
● If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to
occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to
international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020),
our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250
thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We predict the cities with the
largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou,
Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or
special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel
are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
● Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be
effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in
travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on
4 February.
● There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the
assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These
should be considered when interpreting our findings.


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