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澳洲智庫: 中國軍力將更強,不會被川普刺激
送交者: 一劍破天 2017年01月24日19:53:47 於 [軍事天地] 發送悄悄話

CHINA will not be intimidated by Donald Trump as its ambitions to become a stronger military power look set to grow even further this year.

This is just one of the predictions forecast by academics and experts from the University of Sydney who spell out what issues the Asian powerhouse is likely to face in 2017.

From military disputes to economic issues, Beijing faces a number of challenges over the coming months.

China’s relationship with the Philippines will be tested as will its relationship with its northeast Asian neighbours, according to experts.

Ashley Townshend, an expert in US-China relations, predicted ongoing developments in the South China Sea will be a bone of contention between the US and China in the coming months.

But he warned Beijing would not be intimidated by the new Trump administration which had developed a more hawkish approach compared to Barack Obama’s team.

Mr Townshend, a research fellow in the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre, said this hard line approach risked making a Beijing a “more truculent” partner for the US.

President Donald Trump and his team are taking a tougher approach with China than Barack Obama did. Picture: Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP

President Donald Trump and his team are taking a tougher approach with China than Barack Obama did. Picture: Pablo Martinez Monsivais/APSource:AP

He acknowledged it wasn’t necessarily a bad thing if Mr Trump stood up to China regarding certain issues, particularly in regards to the South China Sea.

But Mr Townshend said blocking Chinese ships from accessing disputed reefs would be highly destabilising and counter-productive to Washington’s long-term aims to defend freedom of navigation in the strategic waterway.

His comments come as the White House warned the United States would defend “international interests” in the South China Sea.

Mr Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, last week hinted Washington should prevent China from building islands in disputed waters.

Mr Tillerson called China’s building of bases on the disputed islands illegal, raising the prospect of a confrontation between the world’s two greatest powers.

“We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that, first the island building stops, and second, your access to those islands is also not going to be allowed,” he said.

Mr Townshend said there would certainly be a lot more friction in the Chinese-US relationship as the Trump administration takes a more confrontational approach with Beijing.

“Trump is adopting a more hawkish stance on every important aspect of the bilateral relationship including trade, North Korea, the South China Sea and Taiwan,” he said.

“The fact that Trump is getting tough on all these issues at once isn’t likely to entice Beijing to compromise. Major power relations require some give and take, but it’s shaping up to be all take under Trump’s Asia team.

“This will be the most assertive US-China policy in living memory.”

A soldier stands guard in front of a huge portrait of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Picture: Greg Baker/AFP

A soldier stands guard in front of a huge portrait of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Picture: Greg Baker/AFPSource:AFP

Mr Townshend added: “While it does not want a military confrontation, Beijing will press ahead with its strategic encroachment into the South China Sea throughout 2017.

“Its artificial islands will be further advanced in preparation for future military deployments.

“As China’s military modernisation continues at a rapid pace, it will become increasingly common to see Chinese naval flotillas or air force squadrons practising military drills in international waters and skies throughout the Western Pacific.

But China’s military ambitions aren’t the only issue it faces this year, other issues China is predicted to face in 2017 include:

An aerial photo taken in January this year shows a Chinese navy formation, including the aircraft carrier Liaoning (centre), during military drills in the South China Sea. Picture: AFP

An aerial photo taken in January this year shows a Chinese navy formation, including the aircraft carrier Liaoning (centre), during military drills in the South China Sea. Picture: AFPSource:AFP

CURRENCY WOES NEED SOLVING

Associate Professor Salvatore Babones, an expert in China’s economy, said the Yuan had undergone some serious fluctuations in recent months.

He said the end of 2016 saw its biggest annual loss of the Yuan since 1994, while earlier this month it surged by a record high against the US dollar.

But Prof Babones predicts Mr Trump could actually be the one who helps China solve its currency woes.

Prof Babones said China was trying to prop up the value of the Yuan in its efforts to prevent money leaving the country. Mr Trump claims that the Yuan is too low, giving China an unfair advantage against American manufacturers.

“The obvious solution? An agreement for the US to buy Yuan,” he said.

“Trump loves to surprise, and he loves a deal. A currency accord with China may be his biggest yet.”

HEATH FEARS GROW

Professor Mu Li, an expert on public health in China from the School of Public Health, Sydney Medical School, said China’s population face some big health concerns this year.

Air pollution and an ageing population are among the biggest issues set to test the government’s Healthy China 2030 plan.

Air pollution remains a major concern for Chinese health authorities in 2017. Picture: Andy Wong/AP

Air pollution remains a major concern for Chinese health authorities in 2017. Picture: Andy Wong/APSource:AP

Prof Li said 2017 has already seen record high smog levels with as many as 32 cities under red alert, despite a high-profile campaign to curb the problem.

Just last month, Beijing announced it plans to spend $2.7 billion to fight air pollution in the capital in 2017, the Associated Press reported, citing state media.

Prof Li also predicted an ageing population would also test Beijing’s limits as rapid social structure shifts and population ageing place huge pressures on the limited government services.

DUTERTE’S POWER WILL RISE

Southeast Asia expert Jonathan Bogais said China faced interesting times ahead in its relationship with the Philippines over the South China Sea crisis.

He said Philippines’ President Rodrigo Duterte might be in a better position to deal with both China and the US over the Philippines’ reefs appropriated by China, than his predecessors.

“By rejecting international pressure to enforce the 2016 Hague ruling, Duterte has so far been able to diffuse a tense situation while allowing all sides to save face by maintaining status quo, albeit unintentionally, though a process of ambiguous asymmetric counterbalancing,” Associate Professor Bogais said.

“This may suggest that alternative, less confrontational strategies are possible to address this crisis.”

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, left, shakes hands with Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte during a meeting in Manila this month. Picture: Bullit Marquez/AP

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, left, shakes hands with Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte during a meeting in Manila this month. Picture: Bullit Marquez/APSource:AP

NORTHEAST ASIA WILL BE A CHINA PROBLEM

According to Associate Professor Justin Hastings China will face a challenging relationship with Northeast Asia in coming months.

Prof Hastings, a lecturer in International Relations and Comparative Politics in the Department of Government and International Relations, said this was the region where China should have its greatest influence but also presented Beijing with its biggest challenges.

Prof Hastings predicted “China’s relationship with Japan will remain fraught with tension” over territorial disputes in the East China Sea and this dispute had the potential to spark an “accidental crisis”.

Just two weeks ago, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited the Philippines, which didn’t sit so well with China.

Beijing remained concerned that Mr Abe may be trying to pull the rug under Beijing’s efforts to pacify its neighbours in and around the South China Sea, according to AP.

Prof Hasting also predicted China will attempt to isolate and punish Taiwan for electing pro-sovereignty President Tsai Ing-wen.

North Korea will remain China’s problem child, he predicts, with Beijing remaining unhappy with Pyongyang over its nuclear weapons program. But China will continue to trade enough with Pyongyang which will allow it to survive.

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