Whither AI?

Part 3. AI and Profitability

https://www.facebook.com/andrew.colesville

https://x.com/mwsansculotte

References:

Part 2. AI, the Class Struggle and Human Intelligence (HI)

https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTI4NDI4

For Part 1, See: https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTI2MTU5

In Part 2, it was mentioned that capitals in the "AI industry"  could not attain profits as much as the non-AI industry could, because the labor inputs immersed in the AI data centers such as the GPU's, electricity, cooling liquids such water, constructions, compute machinery were mostly dead and accounted for and dead labor did not produce surplus value hence profit for capitals. Only rather limited and gradually diminishing living labor involving staff members for training of AI, data-collection and maintenance contributed to the generation of rather small and negligible AI-profit for capitals.

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GenAI (Generative AI) is a new content creation method following Professional-Generated Content (PGC) and User-Generated Content (UGC). It leverages technological advantages in creativity, expression, iteration, dissemination, and personalization to create new forms of digital content generation and interaction. With technological advancements, AI writing, AI music composition, AI video generation, AI speech synthesis, and the recently popular AI drawing have all generated considerable buzz in the creative field. Simply inputting a few keywords can generate a painting in seconds.(Source: google.com)

Stanford AI Club: Jason Wei on 3 Key Ideas in AI in 2025

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6Doq2fz81U

Stanford AI Club Oct 18, 2025

This talk was recorded as part of the Stanford AI Club's Speaker Series. 

Jason Wei is a prominent AI researcher currently working at Meta Superintelligence labs. Before Meta, Jason helped co-create the o1 model and Deep Research product at OpenAI. He also was one of the inventors of Chain of Thought reasoning and documented important research on emergent phenomena at Google Brain.

My comment:

Jason Wei's Stanford speech told us that

Intelligence is becoming a commodity and two of the three core ideas of AI are first, the cost of computation and knowledge is approaching zero and second, rapid takeoff of AI is unlikely to be achieved.

According to MIT's July 2025 research report:

"Despite $30–40 billion in enterprise investment into GenAI (AI Generated Content (Generative AI)), this report uncovers a surprising result in that 95% of organizations are getting zero return. The outcomes are so starkly divided across both buyers (enterprises, mid-market, SMBs) and builders (startups, vendors, consultancies) that we call it the GenAI Divide. Just 5% of integrated AI pilots are extracting millions in value, while the vast majority remain stuck with no measurable P&L impact. 

"This divide does not seem to be driven by model quality or regulation, but seems to be determined by approach.

"Tools like ChatGPT and Copilot are widely adopted. Over 80 percent of organizations have explored or piloted them, and nearly 40 percent report deployment. But these tools primarily enhance individual productivity, not P&L performance. Meanwhile, enterprise-grade systems, custom or vendor-sold, are being quietly rejected. Sixty percent of

organizations evaluated such tools, but only 20 percent reached pilot stage and just 5 percent reached production. Most fail due to brittle workflows, lack of contextual learning, and misalignment with day-to-day operations." [

https://mlq.ai/media/quarterly_decks/v0.1_State_of_AI_in_Business_2025_Report.pdf ]

My comment:

The report did not present a comparison in manpower utilization between the 5 percent reaching production and the 95% that failed. It is highly possible that the one which used the most manpower would be the most successful in profitability as only living labor could produce surplus value or profit to be extracted by capital. 

AI has the advantage of streamlining the extraction of workers' surplus value by means of increased productivity. The other side of the coin is that the more productive their labors become, the more will be unemployed, causing less surplus value hence profit. Hence AI capitalism has fallen into a self-inflicted irreconcilable contradiction and therefore will be doomed to failure all by itself. 

According to "Secret Plans Reveal Amazon Plot to Replace 600,000 Workers With Robot Army" By Frank Landymore

https://futurism.com/category/artificial-intelligence Published Oct 23, 2025 2:10 PM EDT

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 In the talk of Interesting Times with Ross Douthat, the outline was as follows:

Is the A.I. revolution keeping the entire economy afloat? This week on “Interesting Times,” Ross talks with Jason Furman, an economist from the Harvard Kennedy School and a contributing writer for NYT Opinion, about how investors, policymakers and consumers should think about the boom — and potential bust — of the fastest growing segment of the American economy and look to past bubbles for answers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KoJH9cGtv1s 

In the late 1990s, investors poured their money into internet-based companies. Telecom firms built out infrastructure — tens of millions of miles of fiber-optic cables — to support the anticipated boom.

It was a bubble. The profits never materialized, so investors sold off their shares and the companies collapsed. The Nasdaq lost more than three-fourths of its value, and it took 15 years to recover.

This time, the companies involved are much bigger. Yet unlike their dot-com forerunners, they’re actually earning some money. Just not as much — for now — as investors hope.(NYTimes, 10/27/2025)

Eric Lee for The New York Times

Nvidia Is Now Worth $5 Trillion as It Consolidates Power in A.I. Boom

The A.I. chip maker, which has become a linchpin in the Trump administration’s trade negotiations in Asia, is the first publicly traded company to top $5 trillion in market value.

My overall comment:

AI has arrived at a across road - its well-hyped efforts have shown its catastrophic illness that condemned them to years of penury because its LLM-generated hallucinations cannot be eliminated by compute alone. AI's survival depends solely on  human's widespread and indispensable involvements. Its dangerous products of falsehood and fabrication have to be safely eliminated by human before any meaningful applicability can be realized . This necessarily applies to all AI applications, including both capitalist and non-capitalist ones. The former possibly will take advantage of much lower labor-cost in the third world than in US to hire workers overseas to do the job in order to save CAPEX, and then workers in those AI-centered countries will have to suffer serious unemployment dilemma.

Just as Joseph Schumpeter claimed in the 1920's, capital will have to produce destruction before achieving anything, AI will become a typical example of capitalist "creative destruction," from which a human intelligence(HI) will replace it.

On the other hand, it is gratifying that Elon Musk Takes On Wikipedia With AI-Generated ‘Grokipedia’—What To Know

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeSjqnn0im0&list=RDNSGeSjqnn0im0&start_radio=1 

Forbes Breaking News Oct 28, 2025

Elon Musk on Monday night unveiled “Grokipedia,” an online encyclopedia built entirely using AI-generated articles designed to take on Wikipedia, which Musk and his allies have claimed is biased and “woke.”

This is what I claimed that AI should rightly be - Smart Encyclopedia Based On Machine Evolution (S.E.B.O.M.E.)

For Smart Encyclopedia Based On Machine Evolution (S.E.B.O.M.E.), See https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTExNjgz

and

https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTEyMDM0

https://www.facebook.com/andrew.colesville

https://x.com/mwsansculotte

[Mark Wain 11/01/2025]

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漢語譯文

人工智能往何處去？

第三部分：人工智能與盈利能力

https://www.facebook.com/andrew.colesville

https://x.com/mwsansculotte

參考文獻：

第二部分：人工智能、階級鬥爭與人類智能 (HI)

https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTI4NDI4

第一部分請見：https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTI2MTU5

第二部分提到，“人工智能產業”的資本無法像非人工智能產業那樣獲得豐厚的利潤，因為人工智能數據中心投入的大量勞動力，例如GPU、電力、冷卻液（如水）、建築和計算設備等，大多處於閒置狀態，無法創造剩餘價值，因此資本無法從中獲利。只有數量有限且逐漸減少的、涉及人工智能訓練、數據收集和維護等工作的員工勞動，才能為資本創造微乎其微的人工智能利潤。

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生成式人工智能（GenAI）是繼專業生成內容（PGC）和用戶生成內容（UGC）之後的一種新型內容創作方法。它利用技術在創意、表達、迭代、傳播和個性化方面的優勢，創造出全新的數字內容生成和互動形式。隨着技術的進步，人工智能寫作、人工智能作曲、人工智能視頻生成、人工智能語音合成以及近期流行的人工智能繪畫等，都在創意領域引起了廣泛關注。只需輸入幾個關鍵詞，即可在幾秒鐘內生成一幅畫作。（來源：google.com）

斯坦福人工智能俱樂部：Jason Wei 談 2025 年人工智能的三大關鍵理念

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6Doq2fz81U

斯坦福人工智能俱樂部 2025 年 10 月 18 日

本次演講是斯坦福人工智能俱樂部系列講座的一部分。

Jason Wei 是一位傑出的人工智能研究員，目前就職於 Meta Superintelligence 實驗室。加入 Meta 之前，Jason 曾參與 OpenAI 的 o1 模型和 Deep Research 產品的聯合開發。他也是“思維鏈”推理的發明者之一，並在 Google Brain 記錄了關於湧現現象的重要研究。

我的評論：

Jason Wei 在斯坦福的演講告訴我們：

智能正在成為一種商品，人工智能的三大核心理念中的兩個是：第一，計算和知識的成本正在接近於零；第二，人工智能不太可能實現快速發展。

根據麻省理工學院2025年7月的研究報告：

“儘管企業在生成式人工智能（GenAI）領域投入了300億至400億美元，但這份報告揭示了一個令人驚訝的結果：95%的組織機構的回報為零。無論是買家（企業、中型企業、中小企業）還是開發者（初創公司、供應商、諮詢公司），其收益都存在着巨大的鴻溝，我們稱之為‘生成式人工智能鴻溝’。只有5%的集成人工智能試點項目能夠創造數百萬美元的價值，而絕大多數項目仍然停滯不前，無法對損益表產生任何可衡量的影響。

“這種鴻溝似乎並非由模型質量或監管造成，而是由方法決定。

“ChatGPT 和 Copilot 等工具已被廣泛採用。超過 80% 的組織已經探索或試用過這些工具，近 40% 的組織表示已部署。但這些工具主要提升的是個人生產力，而非損益表現。與此同時，企業級系統，無論是定製的還是供應商提供的，都正被悄然拒絕。60% 的組織評估過此類工具，但只有 20% 進入了試點階段，僅有 5% 進入了生產階段。大多數失敗的原因在於工作流程脆弱、缺乏情境學習以及與日常運營不匹配。” [https://mlq.ai/media/quarterly_decks/v0.1_State_of_AI_in_Business_2025_Report.pdf]

我的評論：

該報告沒有對進入生產階段的 5% 和失敗的 95% 的人力利用率進行比較。很可能，人力利用率最高的系統在盈利能力方面也最成功，因為只有活的勞動力才能創造可供資本提取的剩餘價值或利潤。

人工智能的優勢在於，它可以通過提高生產力來簡化工人剩餘價值的榨取過程。但另一方面，勞動生產率越高，失業人數就越多，剩餘價值和利潤也就越少。因此，人工智能資本主義陷入了自我造成的不可調和的矛盾之中，註定會走向失敗。

摘自弗蘭克·蘭迪莫爾 (Frank Landymore) 的文章《秘密計劃揭露亞馬遜用機器人大軍取代 60 萬工人的陰謀》

https://futurism.com/category/artificial-intelligence 發布於 2025 年 10 月 23 日下午 2:10（美國東部時間）

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在羅斯·杜特 (Ross Douthat) 主持的《有趣的時代》節目中，討論的要點如下：

人工智能革命是否支撐着整個經濟？本周的“有趣時代”節目中，羅斯與哈佛肯尼迪學院的經濟學家、紐約時報評論版撰稿人傑森·弗曼探討了投資者、政策制定者和消費者應該如何看待這波經濟繁榮及其潛在的衝擊。——美國經濟增長最快的領域之一，並從過去的泡沫中尋找答案。

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KoJH9cGtv1s

上世紀90年代末，投資者將大量資金投入互聯網公司。電信公司鋪設了數千萬英里的光纖電纜等基礎設施，以支持預期的繁榮。

這是一個泡沫。利潤從未實現，投資者紛紛拋售股票，公司也隨之倒閉。納斯達克指數市值縮水超過四分之三，花了15年才恢復過來。

這一次，涉事公司的規模要大得多。然而，與它們的互聯網先驅不同，它們現在確實在盈利。只是——就目前而言——盈利還不如投資者預期的那麼多。（《紐約時報》，2025年10月27日）

埃里克·李，《紐約時報》

英偉達市值現已達5萬億美元，鞏固了其在人工智能領域的統治地位。轟動一時！

這家人工智能芯片製造商已成為特朗普政府在亞洲貿易談判中的關鍵人物，也是首家市值突破5萬億美元的上市公司。

我的總體評論：

人工智能已經走到了一個十字路口——它被大肆宣傳的努力已經暴露出其災難性的缺陷，註定使其陷入多年的困境，因為其由大預言模型（LLM）產生的幻覺無法僅靠計算消除。人工智能的生存完全依賴於人類廣泛且不可或缺的參與。在實現任何有意義的應用之前，必須由人類安全地消除其產生的虛假和捏造的危險產物。這一必要性適用於所有人工智能應用，包括資本主義和非資本主義應用。前者可能會利用第三世界遠低於美國的勞動力成本，雇用海外工人來完成工作以節省資本支出，而這些以人工智能為中心的國家的工人將面臨嚴重的失業困境。

正如約瑟夫·熊彼特在 20 世紀 20 年代所宣稱的那樣，資本在取得任何成就之前都必須先造成破壞，人工智能將成為資本主義“創造性破壞”的典型例子，而人類智能(HI)將取代它。

另一方面，令人欣慰的是，埃隆·馬斯克推出了人工智能生成的“Grokipedia”，挑戰維基百科——你需要了解什麼

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeSjqnn0im0&list=RDNSGeSjqnn0im0&start_radio=1

福布斯突發新聞 2025年10月28日

周一晚間，埃隆·馬斯克發布了“Grokipedia”，這是一個完全由人工智能生成文章的在線百科全書，旨在挑戰維基百科。馬斯克及其盟友聲稱維基百科存在偏見且“覺醒”。

這就是我所設想的人工智能應有的樣子——基於機器進化的智能百科全書（S.E.B.O.M.E. 或 Smart Encyclopedia Based On Machine Evolution，即賽博梅）。

關於基於機器進化的智能百科全書（S.E.B.O.M.E.），請訪問：https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTExNjgz

以及

https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTEyMDM0

https://www.facebook.com/andrew.colesville

https://x.com/mwsansculotte

Reply from Chat.DeepSeek.com about S.E.B.O.M.E. (bilingual 雙語）與深度求索對話）關於 S.E.B.O.M.E. （賽博梅）的回覆

For Smart Encyclopedia Based On Machine Evolution (S.E.B.O.M.E.), See https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTExNjgz

https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTEyMDM0

https://www.facebook.com/andrew.colesville

https://x.com/mwsansculotte

【Mark Wain 2025年十一月一日】