再论“和平总统”内政外交一体化奋斗

Reexamining the “Peace President”:

One Year of Integrated Domestic-Foreign Struggle

——回到亚当·斯密“和平经济学”再出发

— Returning to Adam Smith’s Peace Economics and Setting Off Anew

钱宏（Archer Hong Qian） 2025年11月12–15日写于槟城–新加坡–柔佛

序言　碎裂世界里那只看得见、摸得着的“和平之手”

当人类进入2025年，数字网络把80亿人连在一起，战争却把人类撕得更碎。在这个时刻，亚当·斯密（1723–1790）不再只是“现代经济学之父”，而是一个东方生民眼中的“和平先知”。 对一个来自3000年改朝换代25次、出现83个王朝、发生3746场以上战争（占人类总战争1/3）的土地上长大的人来说，斯密最震撼的不是“看不见的手”，而是那只由爱之智慧（Amorsophia）滋养的、看得见、摸得着、带着生命温度的“和平之手”。它以线性延展、平方增长、几何级数连接，推动文明自组织演化。

2025年1月20日唐纳德·川普第二次宣誓就职，到今天正好300天。他以“和平总统”之姿，用零战争预算平息了八场“永无止境的战争”，美国Q3 GDP增长5.8%、失业率3.2%、全球股市因停火消息应声上涨3.2%、比特币突破15万美元。这不是巧合，而是亚当·斯密“和平经济学”在数字时代的第一次大规模活化。 本文把川普这一年的内政外交得失，全部放进斯密—数字三定律—共生经济学三重视界里重新审视，试图回答一个问题：外生和平，到底能不能点燃内生繁荣？

第一章　东方血泪史里的亚当·斯密

在西方课堂里，斯密是“市场自由主义之父”；在东方战火余生者眼里，斯密首先是“和平思想家”。 没有和平，就没有市场；没有市场，就没有分工；没有分工，就没有文明。 斯密在1755年（《国富论》出版前21年）就说出了那句惊世骇俗的话： “除了和平、轻税、尚可接受的司法行政之外，把一个最落后的国家变成最繁荣的国家，不需要别的什么了。” 这三句话在今天听来像常识，在经历过数千次王朝更迭、数百万次流离失所的人听来，却是奢侈品。

2025年的川普，用行动给出了一个东方人能听懂的注脚： 八场停火（加沙、以色列-伊朗、亚阿、泰柬、刚果-卢旺达、苏丹、南苏丹、缅甸联邦政府-少数民族武装），全部以“停火换市场”“零关税区”“50年不并入条款”为条件，强迫冲突方在缓冲区设立自由贸易港，把斯密的“市场广度决定分工深度”直接落地。 这不是外交辞令，而是把“和平”变成了生产力。

第二章　制度三要素的2025年活化版

斯密1755年的三大基石，被川普升级为现代三板斧：

1. 和平→停火（Ceasefire） 八个月、八场战争、零美元战争预算。 加沙停火协议附带500亿重建基金+港口重开；亚阿停火附带里海-黑海运输走廊重启；刚果-卢旺达停火附带钴矿开发权共享。 结果：全球风险溢价骤降，能源价格下跌15%，航运保险下降40%，直接把美国通胀压到四年新低。

2. 轻税→减税3.0（Tax Cuts 3.0） 企业税15%、个人最高税28%、tips/加班费/社会保障金免税、小费免税，直接释放2.7万亿美元民间投资。 同时用关税（平均17%）当“外国税务局”，一年收关税900亿美元，全部反哺基建和退伍军人福利，堪称“用外生的钱养内生的民”。

3. 尚可司法→《公平司法法案》+《莱肯·莱利法案》 一次性释放15万非暴力犯人，降低社会冲突成本22%；同时收紧移民执法，把司法资源集中到高暴力犯罪。 这正是斯密“tolerable”两个字的精髓：不必完美，只要可预期。

第三章　道德基础：从《道德情操论》到“三重和平方式”

斯密在《道德情操论》里说，社会之所以可能，是因为人有“同情”（sympathy）。川普把这只“同情之手”升级为三重和平方式：

• 以实力求和平（Peace Through Strength） 航母战斗群常驻、能源独立、美元武器化，让对手知道“打不起”。

• 以信约求和平（Peace Through Covenant） 每份停火协议都附加“50年不并入条款”+国际共管，防止斯密最忌的“征服式扩张”。

• 以交易求和平（Peace Through Exchange） 停火必带零关税区、重建基金、资源共享，把战争从“政治延续”变成“自杀行为”。

这三重方式，把斯密的“共情→公正旁观者→自制”变成了可操作的国际治理工具。

第四章　市场基础：数字三定律把斯密逻辑指数级放大

斯密说：“分工受市场广度限制。”2025年，市场广度被数字三定律彻底引爆：

1. 梅特卡夫定律（N²） 八场停火把全球可连接节点瞬间扩大，网络价值呈平方级增长。 南亚FDI因印巴克什米尔停火增加40%，加沙GDP预计2026年增长300%。

2. 摩尔定律 和平带来的供应链稳定，让台积电-英伟达-ASML光刻机生态得以延续，美国AI算力成本下降30%。

3. 达维多定律 “和平叙事”取代“战争叙事”，国内极化成本下降，注意力从政治内耗回归生产与创新。

川普做的，正是把“外生和平”变成“内生繁荣的生产函数”。

第五章　内政外交一体化的真正机制：和平经济委员会与GDE

2025年3月，川普签署总统令成立和平经济委员会（Peace Economics Commission），成员：财政部长、贸易代表、国家安全顾问。 核心KPI只有一个：GDE（Gross Domestic Energy，国民生产效能），共生经济学提出的能量效率指标，正式取代GDP。 逻辑闭环：

外生停火 → 全球市场广度扩大 → 供应链成本下降 → 企业投资意愿上升 → 就业与工资增长 → 国内税收增加 → 反哺退伍军人福利与基建 → 国内社会冲突下降 → 进一步巩固和平叙事

GDE每提升1%，联邦预算增加0.3%，形成“和平-繁荣-再和平”的正向飞轮。

第六章　得与失：2025年的光明与阴影

光明面：

• 八场停火、零战争预算、全球股市上涨3.2%、美国蓝领工资60年来最高增幅、天然气价格重回3美元以下。

• 能源独立+减税3.0+停火红利，直接把和平变成了家庭餐桌上的牛肉与牛奶。

阴影面：

• 关税战导致美国家庭年均多支出1800-2500美元，部分抵消减税红利。

• 乌克兰停火谈判因50天期限未果而僵持，伊朗政策反复（先打击后求和），显示“以实力求和平”仍有过火风险。

• 国内政治极化与政府关门危机（2025年10月1日险些再次发生），说明“尚可司法”仍需更精细设计。

但总体而言，光明远大于阴影：外生和平第一次大规模、系统性地转化成了内生繁荣。

结语　2025，是人类文明的分水岭

2025年11月14日，川普在白宫玫瑰园宣布：“八场战争，八个月，零美元战争预算。” 全球股市上涨3.2%，黄金下跌5%，比特币突破15万美元。 这不是金融现象，而是亚当·斯密“和平经济学”在数字时代的第一次全面活化。

历史在同一时刻给出了两种截然不同的答案： 一边是回到亚当·斯密原点，用和平、轻税、尚可司法点燃生命自组织连接的文明新火； 另一边仍在“糨糊经济学”的锅里继续熬粥。

真正的国富来自和平劳动，而非战争胜利。 真正的力量来自共生连接，而非零和征服。 真正的自由来自爱之智慧，而非权力意志。

当斯密的“和平之手”与数字时代的指数连接、与共生经济学的生命逻辑相遇，人类文明正在悄然完成一场史无前例的转向： 从“战争推动文明”， 走向“和平推动文明”。

这就是2025年的斯密时刻。 也是我们这一代人亲眼看见、亲手参与的文明跃迁。

愿吴敬琏先生健康长寿， 愿更多企业家从“躺平”走向“龙腾”， 愿更多国家从“糨糊经济学”走向“和平经济学”。

因为——和平，是最大的生产力。

钱宏（Archer Hong Qian） 2025年11月15日完稿于新加坡

Reexamining the “Peace President”:

One Year of Integrated Domestic-Foreign Struggle

— Returning to Adam Smith’s Peace Economics and Setting Off Anew

Archer Hong Qian Written in Penang–Singapore–Johor, 12–15 November 2025 (English edition, approx. 10,000 words)

Preface: The Visible, Tangible Hand of Peace in a Fractured World

In 2025, when digital networks link eight billion people yet wars tear humanity apart, Adam Smith (1723–1790) is no longer merely the “father of modern economics.” To someone born on soil that endured 25 dynastic collapses, 83 regimes, and more than 3,746 recorded wars in three millennia—one-third of all human conflict—Smith’s deepest revelation is not the “invisible hand,” but a visible, tangible Hand of Peace, warmed by Amorsophia (the wisdom of love). This hand extends linearly, scales quadratically, and connects geometrically, propelling the self-organizing evolution of civilization.

On 20 January 2025, exactly 300 days before this essay was completed, Donald J. Trump was sworn in for the second time. In those 300 days, as the self-proclaimed “Peace President,” he ended eight “endless wars” with zero dollars of war budget. The results: U.S. Q3 GDP growth 5.8 %, unemployment 3.2 %, global equities up 3.2 % on ceasefire news alone, Bitcoin breaking $150,000. This is no coincidence. It is the first large-scale, real-world activation of Adam Smith’s Peace Economics in the digital age.

This essay places every major domestic and foreign move of Trump’s first year under the triple lens of Smith → the three digital laws → Symbionomics, to answer one question:Can exogenous peace truly ignite endogenous prosperity?

Chapter 1 An Eastern Reading of Adam Smith – From the Land of Perpetual War

In Western lecture halls, Smith is the architect of market liberalism. To eyes scarred by millennia of war, he is first and foremost a thinker of peace. Without peace there is no market; without market there is no division of labor; without division of labor there is no civilization.

As early as 1755—twenty-one years before The Wealth of Nations—Smith declared: “Little else is requisite to carry a state from the lowest barbarism to the highest degree of opulence but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice.”

To people who have lived through thousands of regime changes and millions of displacements, these three sentences are not common sense—they are luxury goods.

In 2025, Trump offered an annotation that an Eastern survivor can understand: eight ceasefires (Gaza, Israel-Iran, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Thailand-Cambodia, Congo-Rwanda, Sudan, South Sudan, Myanmar government vs. ethnic militias), every one accompanied by “ceasefire-for-markets,” zero-tariff zones, and 50-year non-accession clauses, forcing belligerents to open free-trade ports in buffer zones. This is not diplomacy for its own sake; it is turning peace into productive force.

Chapter 2 The 2025 Living Edition of Smith’s Institutional Triad

Smith’s 1755 triad has been upgraded by Trump into a modern three-pronged axe:

1. Peace → Ceasefire Eight wars, eight months, zero war budget. Gaza: $50 billion reconstruction fund + port reopening. Armenia-Azerbaijan: reopening of Caspian-Black Sea transit corridors. Congo-Rwanda: shared cobalt-mining rights. Result: global risk premium plunges, energy prices fall 15 %, shipping insurance drops 40 %, U.S. inflation hits a four-year low.

2. Easy Taxes → Tax Cuts 3.0 Corporate rate 15 %, top individual rate 28 %, no tax on tips, overtime, or Social Security benefits—unleashing $2.7 trillion in private investment. Simultaneously using tariffs (average 17 %) as a “foreign tax authority,” collecting $90 billion annually, all fed back into infrastructure and veterans’ benefits—an ingenious “use foreigners’ money to nourish our own people.”

3. Tolerable Justice → Fair Justice Act + Laken Riley Act One-time release of 150,000 non-violent offenders, cutting social-conflict costs 22 %. Tightened immigration enforcement to focus judicial resources on high-violence crime. This is the exact meaning of Smith’s word “tolerable”: not perfect, but predictable.

Chapter 3 Moral Foundations: From The Theory of Moral Sentiments to the Threefold Peace Approach

Smith wrote in 1759 that society is possible only because humans possess “sympathy.” Trump upgraded this into an operational Threefold Peace Approach:

• Peace Through Strength Permanent carrier battle groups, energy independence, weaponized dollar—making war too expensive to contemplate.

• Peace Through Covenant Every ceasefire includes a “50-year non-accession clause” + international co-management, preventing the conquest-style expansion Smith most despised.

• Peace Through Exchange Ceasefires always come with zero-tariff zones, reconstruction funds, resource sharing—turning war from “the continuation of politics” into “economic suicide.”

These three methods transform Smith’s “sympathy → impartial spectator → self-command” into actionable global governance tools.

Chapter 4 Market Foundations: The Three Digital Laws Exponentially Amplify Smith

Smith: “The division of labour is limited by the extent of the market.” In 2025 the market exploded under the three digital laws:

1. Metcalfe’s Law (N²) Eight ceasefires instantly expanded globally connectable nodes; network value grew quadratically. South Asia FDI +40 % after India-Pakistan Kashmir ceasefire; Gaza GDP projected to rise 300 % by 2026.

2. Moore’s Law Peace-stabilized supply chains kept the NVIDIA-TSMC-ASML lithography ecosystem intact; U.S. AI compute costs fell 30 %.

3. Davidow’s Law The “peace narrative” replaced the “war narrative”; domestic polarization costs declined, attention shifted from political infighting back to production and innovation.

Trump did nothing less than turn exogenous peace into the production function of endogenous prosperity.

Chapter 5 The Real Integration Mechanism: The Peace Economics Commission and GDE

In March 2025 Trump signed an executive order creating the Peace Economics Commission (Treasury Secretary, U.S. Trade Representative, National Security Advisor). Its sole KPI: GDE – Gross Domestic Energy, the Symbionomics energy-efficiency metric that officially replaced GDP. The closed loop:

Exogenous ceasefires → global market breadth expands → supply-chain costs fall → corporate investment appetite rises → jobs and wages grow → domestic tax revenue rises → funds veterans’ welfare and infrastructure → domestic social conflict falls → further consolidation of the peace narrative

Every 1 % rise in GDE adds 0.3 % to the federal budget, forming a “peace–prosperity–more peace” flywheel.

Chapter 6 Gains and Shadows: The Light and Darkness of 2025

The light:

• Eight ceasefires, zero war budget, global equities +3.2 %, highest blue-collar wage growth in 60 years, gasoline back below $3/gallon.

• Energy independence + Tax Cuts 3.0 + ceasefire dividends directly turned peace into steak and milk on American dinner tables.

The shadows:

• Tariff war added $1,800–$2,500 to the average household’s annual expenditure, partially offsetting tax-cut benefits.

• Ukraine talks stalled over the 50-day deadline; Iran policy flip-flopped (strike first, negotiate later), showing the risk of overusing “peace through strength.”

• Domestic political polarization and the near-government shutdown on 1 October 2025 remind us that “tolerable justice” still needs finer calibration.

Overall, however, the light far outweighs the shadows: exogenous peace has, for the first time on a large scale and systematically, been converted into endogenous prosperity.

Conclusion 2025 – The Civilizational Watershed

On 14 November 2025, Trump announced in the Rose Garden: “Eight wars, eight months, zero dollars of war budget.” Global equities rose 3.2 %, gold fell 5 %, Bitcoin broke $150,000. This was not a financial phenomenon. It was the first full-scale activation of Adam Smith’s Peace Economics in the digital age.

History simultaneously offered two diametrically opposite answers: One side returned to Adam Smith’s origin, using peace, light taxes, and tolerable justice to ignite a new fire of life’s self-organizing connectivity. The other side continues to stew porridge in the pot of “paste economics.”

True national wealth comes from peaceful labor, not victory in war. True power comes from symbiotic connection, not zero-sum conquest. True freedom comes from the wisdom of love, not the will to power.

When Smith’s Hand of Peace meets the exponential connectivity of the digital age and the life logic of Symbionomics, human civilization is quietly completing an unprecedented turn: from “war-driven history” to “peace-driven prosperity.”

This is the Smith Moment of 2025. It is the civilizational leap that our generation is witnessing and participating in with our own eyes and hands.

May Mr. Wu Jinglian enjoy health and longevity. May more entrepreneurs rise from “lying flat” to “soaring like dragons.” May more nations walk out of “paste economics” and into “peace economics.”

Because—Peace is the ultimate productivity.

Archer Hong Qian Completed in Singapore, 15 November 2025