It was a piece of cake for Russia to annex Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Crimea has never been truly integral to or governed by Ukraine. The majority of Crimean inhabitants speak Russian and live as Russians. Putin thus couldn't wait to answer Crimean Russians' call for secession from Ukraine which is a potential NATO member. Putin, like all Russian rulers before him, is obsessed with controlling peripheral territories for national security. Meanwhile, the West knew that, if it came to a plebiscite, Crimean Russians would loudly and clearly vote for Putin. As such, Putin didn't have to roll in tanks to persuade the West to mind its own business. Geopolitical reality worked for Putin then. Now it doesn't.
Minus Crimea, Ukraine is still a good-sized country. It will require no less than a multidivisional force to overrun Ukraine. Yet, since 1945, Moscow has never mounted a multidivisional offensive against any enemy real or imagined. One reason is the challenge of fuel supply. A U.S. armored division consumes at least 600,000 gallons of fuel per day. A Russian armored division won't take less. That means Putin has to secure multiple supply lines of great lengths to keep a stranglehold on Kyiv, the heart and soul of Ukraine. To secure his supply lines Putin needs a lot of air support, just to state the most obvious. Once the air force is involved, it won't be a pretty sight. It will be a full-scale war.
In his January 19th presser, President Biden had a slip of the tongue. He uttered something to the effect that America might put up with a "minor incursion" into Ukraine by Russia. Indeed, Putin can always engineer a minor incursion into Ukraine's eastern tip where ethnic Russians are his active supporters. What Putin hopes for is a quick, sharp, short victory of limited military value. That will be quite enough to discredit America and make Russia look more powerful than it actually is. In politics, perception is reality. Putin can't afford to look weak. That said, the last thing Putin needs is a European war he can't win.
By the way, why would Putin go to war with the West and let Xi Jinping stab him in the back?
Author: Lingyang Jiang
