Xi Jinping was taking his victory laps as Chinese president for life when he was out and about maskless recently. Masked Chinese people had yet to publicly ask him to step down back then. Seemingly basking in glory with and among world leaders though, Xi knew that he was still playing a second fiddle to US president Biden. 

The Biden-Xi meeting, which took place in Bali on November 14, was lengthy enough to signify its seriousness and importance. Seriously and importantly, the geopolitical realities were and still are working against Xi. Rhetorics aside, Xi didn't bring home any concession from Biden. But Biden somehow had affirmed the prospect of a visit to China by Anthony Blinken, his Secretary of State, regarding the Taiwan question. Clearly, the US is taking on the Taiwan question more forthrightly.

Did I mention geopolitical realities? Russia has messed itself up really badly in the ongoing Ukraine war, thanks largely to the US weaponry supplied to Kyiv. Xi has a weakened Putin by his side now, who is more a burden than an asset. Worse still, China remains hooked up on the American market, which is virtually a kind of economic dependence on Uncle Sam. As a matter of fact, China is heavily reliant on exports of cheap consumer goods as much as imports of food and energy. Imagine what will happen if all the choke points on China's sea routes are blocked by the US Navy. This is exactly Xi's Achilles heel.

As for the US, the Ukraine war shows Americans that no GI Joe is needed to put Russia in a quagmire. Xi is also quite aware of that.

Author: Lingyang Jiang