愚妹最近沒有跟農業，主要是中期方向不明確，短期波動有很難抓得住。不過噶特門這兩天開開始是看牛。
1/26
“Considering the grain markets, two things caught our
eye over the course of the past several days. Firstly,
we have noted that the soy meal futures have quietly
gone into “backwardation.” Secondly, we note that in
December, Hard red winter wheat futures traded on the
KC Board of Trade traced out a rare monthly reversal
to the upside. Both are strongly bullish signals; indeed
very so. Over the years we have refrained from turning
too bullish of soybeans until such time as “meal” goes
to backwardation, for we learned many, many years
ago having watched the great traders such as Gene
Cashman that “meal” is the dominant product in the
bean complex and that until such time as demand is
able to be substantive enough to push the market into
backwardation, one is paid to stand aside. However,
once backwardated, the odds favour those trading
bullishly, and especially those trading meal and beans
at the expense of “oil.” Meal is now backwardated, and
our attention is piqued.
Secondly, we have learned the very hardest way that
monthly reversals are worthy of note. They are rare,
and they are usually meaningful. The fact that the
market “reversed” in December, and the fact that
January has been an “inside month” is a powerful
technical signal that shall bring us from the sidelines to
the centre stage.”

He also recommended DBA and MON yesterday, again!

I think some of the bullish move in commodities (precious/base metals, oil, agri) lately are USD related. So the question comes back to the same: is this the begining of the $ devaluation? or is it another headfake?

Backwardation apreads play (buy jul, sell Aug or oct) on bean meal may be a safer way to start right now.

丁丁媽媽請原諒！ ：-）