XI. Understanding the White Working Class Vote in 2016
A post-election survey conducted by PRRI just days after the election found nearly two-thirds (64%) of white working-class voters reported supporting President Trump in the 2016 presidential election, while fewer than one-third (32%) said they cast a ballot for Hillary Clinton.19 A number of explanations were offered to help explain Trump’s rise and unlikely victory in 2016, with many of them focused particularly on his strong performance among white working-class voters.
“My dad specifically told me when he voted for Obama, the only reason he voted for Obama was because of his promise for change. This time he voted for Hillary and we’ve been fighting ever since. I said, ‘Where do you think you’re gonna get change with her? Just tell me one thing that you think she’s gonna change.’” —Man
Some of the most prominent factors identified by journalists and scholars include: lack of social mobility, economic distress, poor health outcomes, civic disengagement, racial resentment, anxiety about cultural change, anti-immigrant sentiment, and anxiety about shifting gender roles.
However, survey results demonstrate no evidence for several leading theories.
White working-class voters who experienced a loss of social and economic standing were not any more likely favor Trump than those whose status remained the same or improved.
White working-class voters who reported that someone in their household was dealing with a health issue—such as drug addiction, alcohol abuse, or depression—were actually less likely to express support for Trump’s candidacy.
There is no correlation between the level of civic engagement and preference for Trump among white working-class voters.
Still, many factors remain correlated with support for Trump’s candidacy among white working-class voters.
White working-class voters who said discrimination against whites is a serious problem were much more likely to favor Trump than those who did not (74% vs. 40%, respectively).
Similarly, white working-class voters who expressed anxieties about cultural change—a composite variable that combined a belief that the U.S. needs to be protected from foreign influence and feelings of being “a stranger in my own country”—expressed a much stronger preference for Trump than those who did not (79% vs. 43%, respectively).
White working-class voters who advocated deporting immigrants living in the country illegally overwhelmingly favored Trump, while those who favored alternative policies expressed far less support (87% vs. 49%, respectively).
Roughly three-quarters (74%) of white working-class voters who say society punishes men “just for acting like men” supported Trump, compared to 48% of those who reject this statement.
