Lights, Cameras, Little Action at Talks
U.S. Theatrical Maneuvering Mostly Fails to Budge Chinese

By Ariana Eunjung Cha
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, December 16, 2006; Page D01

BEIJING, Dec. 15 -- The Chinese might have been forgiven for thinking they were watching an American movie.

No trope of stagecraft went unexplored this week as the United States jockeyed for advantage in a high-level economic dialogue with China. There was a good-cop, bad-cop routine: Susan C. Schwab, the U.S. trade representative, accused China of "backsliding" on re????s, while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke spoke in a patient, scholarly voice about how much it would benefit China to accede to U.S. currency demands.

Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. led the U.S. delegation.
Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. led the U.S. delegation. (By Guang Niu -- Getty Images)
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There was bullying, with several reminders from the Americans that the United States is China's No. 1 export customer -- the implication being that the wide-open U.S. market could slam shut if the Chinese aren't careful.

There was coaxing, with the Americans telling the Chinese they could improve their image as good economic citizens if they would adopt the U.S. program.

It was hard to tell what the Chinese thought about the show.

They set the stage with flair, rolling out red carpets and luscious Chinese delicacies in the ornate Great Hall of the People. But much of the action transpired behind closed doors, with journalists left to glean bits of in????ation from after-the-fact briefings.

In public, the Chinese were impassive and tough, reminding the visiting Americans of their country's problems and of the need for social stability as China undergoes profound economic trans????ation. "Some American people are not only having limited knowledge of the reality of this country" but also "even harbor some misunderstandings," Vice Premier Wu Yi declared, not once, but twice -- in her opening and closing remarks.

In the end, the Chinese didn't give much ground. As the first Strategic Economic Dialogue spearheaded by Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. wound up Friday, the two sides announced several small-scale, mostly symbolic agreements.

What they did not announce was a breakthrough on the most contentious economic issue between the countries: the value of China's currency in relation to the dollar.

While most countries allow market forces to determine the exchange rate for their currency, China's central bank fixes its value within a narrow band. It has moved a few percentage points in the past year, but many Western economists complain that the yuan is still priced too low, with estimates ranging from 15 to 40 percent. The effect, they contend, is to make Chinese goods unfairly cheap on overseas markets, driving an export boom in China, while making Western-made goods extraordinarily expensive on the Chinese mainland.

On the currency issue, Paulson's counterpart, Finance Minister Jin Renqing, offered only a vague commitment to pursue "exchange-rate regime re????." The incoming U.S. Congress is expected to take a tough stand in 2007 after an election in which many of the winning Democrats ran on skepticism about free trade.

One of Paulson's goals in launching a dialogue with the Chinese was to move beyond the ????ality of state meetings with their characteristic tone: two countries talking past one another. In that respect, the meeting was a success. U.S. officials described blunt, tense exchanges on some issues, such as Chinese complaints about American restrictions on the export of high technology and U.S. concern that China's oil deals in Africa are bolstering repressive governments.

"When we disagree, we do so with mutual respect and an eye towards finding agreement where possible, and it was in that spirit in which we conducted our meetings," Paulson said.

The two sides announced modest agreements Friday that had, in some cases, been in the works for weeks or months. For example, two U.S. securities exchanges, the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq Stock Market, will be allowed to open more elaborate offices in China, furthering their hope of capturing the business of the giant Chinese companies that are starting to sell shares to the public. In the past year, most of that business has gone to Hong Kong and London.

U.S. and Chinese leaders also announced working groups on service-sector development; improving health care, energy and the environment; and easing investments and promoting transparency. Those groups will present their findings at the next strategic dialogue, in Washington in May.

The countries also agreed on terms to expand financing for companies that want to export U.S. goods to China, a measure that had been in the works for about a year but had stalled.

James H. Lambright, chairman of the Export-Import Bank of the United States, said that as the strategic economic dialogue approached, it became clear to everyone how important it would be over time to increase U.S. exports.

Exports have been a surprising source of strength for the U.S. economy this year. The Chinese have long vowed to expand their consumer economy so ordinary people could afford goods from home and abroad.

"We now have a better understanding of how our interests intersect," Lambright said.

中美對話成果有限 美參院要員不耐煩
(博訊2006年12月16日)
中美對話第二日美國參院要員寫信施壓鮑爾森

綜合消息：中美首次美中戰略經濟對話15日閉幕，但中美分歧仍然存在。美國國會兩位重量級的議員當天致函鮑爾森，敦促美國加大對中國的壓力，敦促中國政府提高人民幣的幣值。中美雙方一致認為增加人民幣匯率彈性對於緩解兩國貿易失衡問題至關重要，但並沒有宣布任何可以加速以上進程的具體措施，也沒有提出具體時間表。分析稱，兩國在貿易上相互依存的格局已經形成，只能求同存異，通過對話逐步減少貿易摩擦。 (博訊 boxun.com)

　　美國之音報道，美國財政部長鮑爾森率領陣容強大的代表團在北京與中國進行了首次戰略經濟對話，爭取解決中美貿易中存在的一系列問題。經過兩天會談後，雙方在原則上同意解決美中貿易不平衡的問題，並就在促進貿易、開放市場、保護環境等領域加強合作達成共識，但在人民幣匯率、市場准入以及保護知識產權等關健問題上的分歧依然存在。

美國國會議員等不起了

　　雖然中美兩國在對話中達成部分共識，但有美國國會要員對此並不滿意。即將就任參議院銀行委員會主席的民主黨參議員多德和即將卸下這個職務的共和黨參議員謝爾比在致鮑爾森的信中，對等待中國在遙遠的將來讓人民幣匯率浮動的想法表示不耐煩。他們說：“我們不能繼續在等待這個長期目標的同時忍受微不足道的短期行動的後果。”

　　兩位參議員說，專家估計人民幣被低估了15%到40%，使中國製造的產品在美國的消費市場上過於便宜，導致美國的工作機會流失。

中美對話側重點不同

　　觀察人士指出，中美雙方之間的問題仍然存在，主要是因為在這次會談中的側重點明顯不同。美國認為，單純務虛是不夠的，中國必須採取具體措施解決兩國貿易不平衡不斷擴大的問題，僅僅舉行談判已經不足以平息美國國內對美中貿易現狀的強烈不滿。中國則認為，這次中美戰略對話的主題是中國的發展道路和中國的經濟發展戰略，而不是解決中美貿易的具體問題。

　　中美分歧從中國國務院副總理吳儀的講話中即可品味出來。吳儀在兩天會談結束後與鮑爾森共同會見記者時表示，此次對話非常成功，雙方的討論“坦率而富有成果”。但對於引起爭議的人民幣匯率問題，吳儀並沒有發表評論。她說，雙方的分歧仍然存在是可以理解的，因為中國與美國的實際情況完全不一樣。

　　北京大學經濟學院教授商德文說，美國方面不滿意這次會談的結果，這在意料之中。他說：“美國來之前就向國會提交了一個報告，說中國的市場是扭曲的，市場經濟不完善。他提出這個調子，壓力是挺大的。但是，也不能單看美國一個方面，也要看中國，中國也要考慮自身的利益。美國不滿意，也只能求同存異，以後再慢慢地談吧。”

兩國貿易相互依存

　　在北京的分析人士普遍認為，美中首次經濟戰略對話只能就減輕貿易摩擦確立一個架構，期待這次會談產生具體結果是不現實的。北京大學經濟學院的商德文教授說，中美兩國在貿易上是相互依存的關係，彼此間的矛盾只能通過協商來解決。

　　商德文說：“假使中美貿易切斷的話，對美國多數人也沒有什麼好處，因為在美國市場上，輕工業品、生活用品是中國產品占的比重很大。現在已經是互相依賴，誰也離不開誰。所以，有些問題只能磋商，不能說：‘我制裁你。’這樣是不太友好的。”

中國將加大匯率彈性

　　鮑爾森說，中國保證實行更靈活的人民幣匯率，但沒有確定時間表。鮑爾森表示，雙方達成的共識將使今後的對話更富有成果，這次會談只是美中兩國長期貿易戰略對話的開始。

　　鮑爾森說：“我們將各自針對全球貿易不平衡的問題採取措施，美國方面主要是通過增加國內儲蓄，中國方面則是通過增加國內消費和施行更靈活的人民幣匯率，而且兩國都要繼續開放投資市場。”

　　中國代表團團長、副總理吳儀說，兩天的會談非常有益和具有建設性。她表示，美國和中國之間存在很多分歧是可以理解的，關健在於如何對待這些分歧。

商務部斥美國報告不客觀

　　美國貿易代表辦公室於12月11日發布了關於中國履行WTO承諾情況的報告。中國商務部新聞發言人15日召開例行新聞發布會表示，美國報告的許多指責不客觀、不全面，與實際情況不符。中國對此表示遺憾，並敦促美國以客觀、實事求是的態度看待和處理雙邊經貿關係中的問題。

　　商務部發言人表示，該報告總體上對中國加入世貿組織五年來為全面履行WTO承諾所做出的努力和取得的成績給予了肯定，中國對此表示讚賞。同時中國也注意到，美國在知識產權、產業政策、服務貿易等領域對中國履行承諾的情況給予了批評。中國認為，美國的許多指責不客觀、不全面，與實際情況不符。

　　發言人稱，作為世界上兩個貿易大國，中美兩國之間存在一些各自關注的問題在所難免。中國願本着合作精神，通過對話增進理解，與美國妥善處理有關問題。商務部披露的最新數據顯示，今年1至11月，中美貿易額達2387億美元，同比增長24.6%。其中，中國自美進口539億美元，同比增長 23%。

慢升符合中國需要

　　中美戰略經濟對話15日結束，人民幣對美元匯率中間價14日、15日接連創出歷史新高，15日達到7.8185：1。中國人民銀行貨幣政策委員會委員、經濟學家樊綱表示：“中國當前的外匯政策是適當的，符合中國經濟平穩持續增長的需要。人民幣小步升值，不僅防止中國經濟出現大的波動，而且也有利於打擊投機資金。”

　　其實，在“小慢步”趨勢下，人民幣累計升值已達到“可觀幅度”。如果以兌換1美元計算，從2006年1月初人民幣匯率為8.0702元/美元起，如今人民幣升值價差達到0.2517元。

　　對於中國巨額外匯儲備和高順差的問題，樊綱表示，單靠人民幣升值並不能緩解這兩個問題，這也不應成為當前呼籲人民幣升值的理由。“中國外部經濟平衡關係的調整，是一個非常複雜的問題。我們應該動態、全面地去從各個方面進行經濟結構的調整，實現相對平衡。而國際市場，只過多地考慮他們自己的利益。”

附：中美經濟對話成果一覽

　　中國承諾會加大匯率的彈性

　　美國支持中國加入泛美開發銀行

　　雙方同意在中國設立紐約證券交易所和納斯達克代表處

　　明年重啟雙邊航空服務談判

　　中國將加入“未來發電計劃”政府指導委員會

　　利用現有機制，增加有效且可持續性的能源利用、促進個人旅遊和商務活動、發展援助和多邊開發銀行貸款等方面的雙邊合作

　　就發展高效和創造性的服務業和改善醫療的途徑進行討論

　　啟動雙邊投資對話

　　在有效保護知識產權、加強法治和消除貿易與投資壁壘的基礎上，建立開放、競爭性市場