and you are more rational in this post. I’d like to share bit more with you. You seems more like those buy and hold or short and hold than those traders. Remember, buy and hold does not work so as short and hold does not work if one tries to hold the position long enough, such as say 5 or 10 years. You need to know when to hold and when to fold.


As traders, we can’t be off market by more than 10%. It is suicide if any trade off more than that amount especially when we talking about futures. If we had entered short early, we could be wiped out. FA is only a guidance of possible direction. Exact entry has nothing to do with the fundamental. We certainly aware all these problems before market topped out.

I’ll tell you here, if you looking for 2 years ahead, you are probably looking for suicide either at current market level. Market has the moment of inertia. When the fundamental shows sign of change, market may not yet (already way) be off high or low.

good luck.