朱成虎關於核武器的狂言 我認識朱成虎 他談話絕對不是失言
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2005-07-24 07:44:35 點擊:3007

Zhu Chenghu's blunder on nuclear bombs

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● By Charles F. Hawkins

霍金斯

As rational humans we generally like to think that everyone can get along in a peaceful way while seeking better lives for our children and ourselves.

But once in a while an event or utterance by a national official brings us back to reality - the world is not inherently a peaceful place.

Such was the case this past Thursday when Major General Zhu Chenghu, a dean at the prestigious National Defence University in Beijing, coolly stated that China would have to resort to the use of nuclear weapons in a war with the United States over Taiwan.

So much for the “peaceful rise of China.”

Although an official spokesman for Beijing repeatedly emphasised that Zhu's comments were his “personal opinion,” there is ample reason to believe that Zhu is not the only senior officer in China who holds this viewpoint.

I know Zhu Chenghu. We had dinner together two years ago with another PLA general. He's a soft-spoken, logical man, and has an excellent command of English, one of the reasons he supervises instruction at NDU for English-speaking foreign military students.

His words about using nuclear weapons against the US in a war over Taiwan were not a mistake.

Since before March 2004, when Taiwan held national elections what were highly contested on several points—Chen Shui-bian won by a narrow margin and his constitutional re???? initiative failed to receive enough votes to count - I have detected among Chinese defence analysts and military elites a growing concern over war with the United States over Taiwan.

That concern has been expressed to me in two ways: one, China will go to war against Taiwan if it declares independence; and two, if the United States intervenes, China has the capability to win, regardless of US capabilities.

But win by using what? Nuclear weapons?

Such an idea, if enacted, is sure to backfire and wreak devastation on China. US planners in Pacific Command in Hawaii take such wartime considerations seriously, and make war plans accordingly.

First use of nuclear weapons by China in a war with the United States would be met with overwhelming response.

I shudder to think of the consequences. Shanghai, a city I have come to love and appreciate, would be wiped from the coast of the sea. Beijing, a world-class city that will host the 2008 Olympics, would cease to exist.

More importantly, I would lose many friends - people in China whom I care about deeply.

What must Zhu Chenghu have been thinking?

For one thing he was thinking about the many wargames that Chinese defence analysts and PLA planners have conducted to study consequences of a nuclear war with the United States.

These wargames, conducted in secret and unpublicised to the Chinese public, explore different “what if” scenarios. What these wargames don't explore is the attitude of the American people if they are attacked, especially by nuclear weapons.

Nothing would keep Americans from seeking a full measure of retribution.

One is left to ponder why Zhu Chenghu would make such a pronouncement in the first place. Clearly he understands the American psyche and knows enough about military affairs to realise that PACOM has the ability to dominate China in either a conventional war or a nuclear one.

It can only be that the general was speaking on behalf of other factions in Beijing, factions that want to send a message to the United States over their deep-seated desire to gain control over Taiwan.

I'm sorry that the man I enjoyed dinner with feels this way, or, if he does not, that he was ordered to make such an outrageous statement in the first place.

The policy of Washington on the matter of China-Taiwan is very simple and direct: If China attacks Taiwan, the United States will help defend it. This includes a nuclear war, if it comes to that.

And I hope for all our sakes that it does't.

The writer is a senior defence analyst in Washington, D.C.and a frequent visitor to Asia. He contributes this article to Lianhe Zaobao.

朱成虎關於核武器的狂言

　　一般有理性的人都希望人們能夠和平共處，並為自己和下一代謀求更美好的生活。然而，一些事件或者一些官員的講話，有時候會讓我們回到現實——世界和平不是理所當然的事。

　　著名的中國國防大學防務學院院長朱成虎少將上星期四泰然表示，一旦因為台灣問題同美國發生戰爭，中國將使用核武器對付美國。

　　看來我們就別再談什麼中國的“和平崛起”了。

　　中國外交部發言人一再表示朱成虎的談話純屬“個人意見”。但是我們有足夠的理由相信朱成虎並不是唯一持有這種看法的中國高級官員。

　　我認識朱成虎，我們曾經在兩年前同另一名解放軍將官一起吃晚餐。他是一個聲音柔和、思路清晰的人。另外，他的英文能力也很強，所以他的工作是負責監督學院裡說英語的外籍學生的課程。他說中國會用核武器對付美國的談話絕對不是失言。

　　自從台灣去年3月備受爭議的總統選舉後——憲法改革計劃並 沒有獲得足夠支持的陳水扁以微差獲勝——我就察覺到中國國防 分析人員和解放軍高層越來越關注中國會因為台灣同美國開戰的問題。

　　他們向我表示，如果台灣宣布獨立，中國將會對台灣動武。如果美國出手干預，不論美國的軍事力量如何，中國也有能力取勝。

　　但是中國要靠什麼取勝呢？使用核武器嗎？

　　這樣的想法如果真的付諸行動，結果將會適得其反，使中國蒙受嚴重的破壞。

　　在夏威夷的美軍太平洋總部的軍事策劃人員，非常認真看待這類戰時必須考慮的因素，也會提出應變的作戰計劃。中國如果在同美國作戰時先行使用核武器，美國將會作出強有力的反擊。

　　我不敢想像後果將會如何。我喜歡和欣賞的上海將會從地面上消失，將於2008年主辦奧運會的世界級都市北京也將不復存在。更重要的是，我將失去一些我非常關心的中國朋友。

　　朱成虎的腦子裡到底在想些什麼呢？可以肯定的是，他在思考中國軍事分析人員和解放軍軍事策劃人員對於和美國發生核戰爭的紙上演習的結果。這些不為中國民眾所知的秘密演習，目的是探討可能出現的各種狀況。

　　不過，演習沒有考慮到的是美國人受到攻擊，特別是核武器攻擊時，會有什麼反應。我想沒有什麼可以阻止美國人採取嚴厲的報復行動。

　　朱成虎究竟為什麼要發表這樣的談話呢？他應該很清楚美國人的心態，也應該知道不論是常規戰爭或者核戰爭，美軍太平洋總部都有能力制服中國。

　　唯一的可能是朱成虎是在替北京的某些派系表態，這些人要向美國傳達他們要控制台灣的決心。

　　對於和我共進晚餐的朋友有這樣的看法，或者沒有這樣的看法卻被迫發表這樣的言論，我感到非常遺憾。

　　華盛頓對台海局勢的立場是非常簡單和直截了當的：如果中國攻擊台灣，美國將會幫助台灣自衛，這包括在必要的情況下進行核戰爭。

　　當然，為了大家好，我希望這樣的情況不會出現。

·作者Charles F. Hawkins是美國資深防務問題分析家。此文專供本報發表，葉琦保譯
編輯：龍芯