美國：中國在太空競賽中進步神速，應於關注。

BY MICHAEL GREEN

在2月20日，美國將慶祝JOHN GLENN駕駛的“友誼7”號飛船歷史性的飛行40周年。這是與蘇聯太空競賽的一個重要的里程碑。競賽是由俄國發射SPNTNIK號開始的，由美國人到達月球表面行走而結束。從1972年以後就再也沒有人進行過低地球軌道飛行。儘管這麼多年來太空競賽表面上看上去是停滯了，但會不會一輪新的向月球，甚至火星的競賽已經迫近了呢？也是確實是這樣的。

當美國的載人航天項目還呆在軌道上時，一個新的航天巨人正在從陰影中浮現出來。中華人民共和國很有可能將成為第三個成功的把人送到地球軌道上的國家。中國的太空計劃以前一直遮蔽在神秘的面紗中，現在已經作好準備要向前邁出巨大的一步。

儘管對人身和政治自由的限制還在，中國已經在經濟和技術領域進步了。多年裡成千上萬的中國人在美國的大學裡尋求技術上的教育和培訓。這些學到的技能將會被帶回中國，把這個國家從一個農業國變為一個現代化的，技術進步的社會。

在1992年，經過了多年不成功的嘗試之後，中國宣布在世紀之交發展載人航天項目的計劃。在九十年代中期，中國的航天專家訪問了俄羅斯，並且從俄羅斯航天項目中採購了許多設備，其中包括發動機，生命保障系統和太空服等。中國並沒有拷貝俄羅斯的系統，而是徹底改進和修繕了這些系統而使它們能夠滿足中國人自己精密的設備要求。

在1999年11月，神舟1號由新改進型的長征火箭發射成功。無人駕駛飛船在地球軌道上飛了14圈後成功的在蒙古着陸。神舟號看上去很像俄羅斯的SOYNZ號，但是更大，性能更好。十分謹慎的中國人在他們第一次任務成功14個月之後又進行了實驗，這次上面帶了一隻狗和一隻猴子。這次神舟號進行了很多複雜的演練來變換它的軌道和高度——這些都是靠近和對接功能的最重要的步驟。神舟號的下一次發射日期還沒有透露，但許多分析人士認為可能是下幾個星期，如果發展一切順利，載人飛行計劃將在2002年底完成。

中國甚至宣布計劃向月球發射探測器，並準備完成他們的下一個十年內宇航員登月的計劃，
中國雄心勃勃，他們好象正在積攢巨大的科技發展勢頭和爭取公眾對他們航天計劃的支持。中國成為空間大國只能夠進一步使本來已經複雜的地理政治格局更加複雜。隨着美國退出反導條約，中國新的對太空的探索應當引起我們的注意。

我們準備好進行新的太空競賽了嗎？在過去的20年裡，NASA取得了許多重大的成就。航天飛機依然是航空航天發展取得的巨大成就。今天，在經過了許多年的議會財政爭執和計劃重組後，國際太空站終於在建設中了，太空站上的工作由3名宇航員長年進行。

不幸的是，美國的太空計劃被美國政治上的暖昧拖入泥潭。令人吃驚的是，我們在民用航天上的花消小於聯邦年度財政預算的百分之一。而同時，中國卻從他們的太空探索努力中看到了巨大的利益，（既有有形的，又有無形的）。還有什麼能比控制太空而更能顯示他們“超級大國地位”的提升呢？

設想一下大概10年以後，一個中國太空人走過去移走NEIL ARMSTRONG立在月球表面上的美國國旗或帶回地球那些APOLLO MOONWALKERS留在月球上實驗用品，我們該怎樣反映呢？更重要的是這個我們國家今天應該對這個新的潛在的競爭對手怎樣反映呢。

很多在政府裡面和不在政府裡面的專家都對中國太空的活動不屑一顧，甚至有些還歡迎鼓勵新的中國的太空活動。但是，正如我們去年9月份所目睹的，情報部門的專家在他們的預測和分析上會犯大錯誤，甚至有時是致命的錯誤。如果我們今天不及時行動，進行管理上的改革和投入更多的資金去重新振興國家的空間計劃的話，我們將有使美國太空領域的壟斷遭受巨大損失的風險。

低估這個新的競爭者可能在短期來講能帶來政治上的便利。但是從長期遠景來看卻是愚蠢的甚至是危險的。我們難道必須再從痛苦中去學到這點嗎？

摘抄於英文網站，原文如下：

On Feb. 20, America will celebrate the 40th anniversary of John Glenn's historic flight of Friendship 7. This was an important milestone in the space race with the Soviet Union. The race began with the Russian launch of Sputnik and ended when Americans walked on the surface of the moon. No human has traveled beyond low-Earth orbit since 1972. Despite years of perceived stagnation in space, could a new race back to the moon, or even to Mars, be on the horizon? Perhaps so.

While the United States' human space program has remained in orbit, a new space power is emerging from the shadows. The People's Republic of China will likely soon become the third country to successfully launch a human into orbit. China's space program, covered in a veil of secrecy in the past, is now poised to take a giant step forward.

Despite restrictions on personal and political freedoms, China has moved forward economically and technologically. For many years now, tens of thousands of Chinese nationals have attended U.S. colleges and universities seeking technical education and training. These skills are going back to China and turning the agrarian country into a modern, technically evolving society.

In 1992, after years of false starts, China announced plans to develop a human space program by the turn of the century. In the mid-1990s, Chinese space experts visited Russia and purchased several items from the Russian space program, including engines, life-support systems and spacesuits. China didn't copy the Russian systems; they radically improved and modified them to meet their own carefully thought-out needs.

Dramatically, in November 1999, Shenzhou 1 (Divine Vessel) lifted off atop a newly modified Long March rocket. The unmanned spacecraft made 14 orbits and a successful landing in Mongolia. The Shenzhou craft appears similar to a Russian Soyuz, but is larger and much more capable. The ever-cautious Chinese followed their initial success with another mission 14 months later, with a crew of a monkey and a dog. This time the Shenzhou craft carried out complex maneuvers to change its orbit and altitude--both critical steps toward rendezvous and docking capabilities. The date of the next Shenzhou flight is not known, but many analysts believe it may occur in the coming weeks. If all goes well, a human piloted mission could occur before the end of 2002.

China has even announced plans to send probes to the moon, and has put forth the goal of landing their astronauts--called Taikonauts--on the moon within the next 10 years. While extremely ambitious, the Chinese appear to be building great technical momentum and public support for their space program. Becoming a world power in space can only complicate an already complex geopolitical situation. With the United States withdrawing from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, a new Chinese foray into space should be observed with concern.

Are we prepared for a new space race? During the last 20 years, NASA has accomplished several major successes. The space shuttle remains a monumental achievement in aerospace development. Today, after years of congressional budget battles and redesigns, the International Space Station is under construction and occupied year-round by three astronauts.

Unfortunately, the U.S. space program is also mired in political ambivalence. Amazingly, we spend less than 1 percent of the federal budget annually for the civilian space program. Meanwhile, the Chinese are seeing great benefits--both tangible and intangible--from their space exploration efforts. What better way to demonstrate to the world its ascension to ''superpower status'' than by mastering space?

Just imagine in 10 or so years a Chinese Taikonaut walking over and dislodging the American flag placed on the lunar surface by Neil Armstrong or bringing back to Earth experiments left behind by Apollo moonwalkers. How would we react? More important, how should this nation react today to this new potential competitor?

Many experts, inside and outside the government, dismiss or even embrace the new Chinese activism in space. However, as we witnessed last September, intelligence experts can be strikingly wrong in their predictions and analysis--sometimes with deadly consequences. Failure to act today, to revitalize this nation's space program with management reforms and new spending, risks a significant loss of U.S. hegemony in space. Underestimating this new competitor might be politically convenient in the short term, but foolhardy and even dangerous in the long term. Must we learn ''the hard way'' again?