美国：中国在太空竞赛中进步神速，应于关注。

BY MICHAEL GREEN

在2月20日，美国将庆祝JOHN GLENN驾驶的“友谊7”号飞船历史性的飞行40周年。这是与苏联太空竞赛的一个重要的里程碑。竞赛是由俄国发射SPNTNIK号开始的，由美国人到达月球表面行走而结束。从1972年以后就再也没有人进行过低地球轨道飞行。尽管这么多年来太空竞赛表面上看上去是停滞了，但会不会一轮新的向月球，甚至火星的竞赛已经迫近了呢？也是确实是这样的。

当美国的载人航天项目还呆在轨道上时，一个新的航天巨人正在从阴影中浮现出来。中华人民共和国很有可能将成为第三个成功的把人送到地球轨道上的国家。中国的太空计划以前一直遮蔽在神秘的面纱中，现在已经作好准备要向前迈出巨大的一步。

尽管对人身和政治自由的限制还在，中国已经在经济和技术领域进步了。多年里成千上万的中国人在美国的大学里寻求技术上的教育和培训。这些学到的技能将会被带回中国，把这个国家从一个农业国变为一个现代化的，技术进步的社会。

在1992年，经过了多年不成功的尝试之后，中国宣布在世纪之交发展载人航天项目的计划。在九十年代中期，中国的航天专家访问了俄罗斯，并且从俄罗斯航天项目中采购了许多设备，其中包括发动机，生命保障系统和太空服等。中国并没有拷贝俄罗斯的系统，而是彻底改进和修缮了这些系统而使它们能够满足中国人自己精密的设备要求。

在1999年11月，神舟1号由新改进型的长征火箭发射成功。无人驾驶飞船在地球轨道上飞了14圈后成功的在蒙古着陆。神舟号看上去很像俄罗斯的SOYNZ号，但是更大，性能更好。十分谨慎的中国人在他们第一次任务成功14个月之后又进行了实验，这次上面带了一只狗和一只猴子。这次神舟号进行了很多复杂的演练来变换它的轨道和高度——这些都是靠近和对接功能的最重要的步骤。神舟号的下一次发射日期还没有透露，但许多分析人士认为可能是下几个星期，如果发展一切顺利，载人飞行计划将在2002年底完成。

中国甚至宣布计划向月球发射探测器，并准备完成他们的下一个十年内宇航员登月的计划，
中国雄心勃勃，他们好象正在积攒巨大的科技发展势头和争取公众对他们航天计划的支持。中国成为空间大国只能够进一步使本来已经复杂的地理政治格局更加复杂。随着美国退出反导条约，中国新的对太空的探索应当引起我们的注意。

我们准备好进行新的太空竞赛了吗？在过去的20年里，NASA取得了许多重大的成就。航天飞机依然是航空航天发展取得的巨大成就。今天，在经过了许多年的议会财政争执和计划重组后，国际太空站终于在建设中了，太空站上的工作由3名宇航员长年进行。

不幸的是，美国的太空计划被美国政治上的暖昧拖入泥潭。令人吃惊的是，我们在民用航天上的花消小于联邦年度财政预算的百分之一。而同时，中国却从他们的太空探索努力中看到了巨大的利益，（既有有形的，又有无形的）。还有什么能比控制太空而更能显示他们“超级大国地位”的提升呢？

设想一下大概10年以后，一个中国太空人走过去移走NEIL ARMSTRONG立在月球表面上的美国国旗或带回地球那些APOLLO MOONWALKERS留在月球上实验用品，我们该怎样反映呢？更重要的是这个我们国家今天应该对这个新的潜在的竞争对手怎样反映呢。

很多在政府里面和不在政府里面的专家都对中国太空的活动不屑一顾，甚至有些还欢迎鼓励新的中国的太空活动。但是，正如我们去年9月份所目睹的，情报部门的专家在他们的预测和分析上会犯大错误，甚至有时是致命的错误。如果我们今天不及时行动，进行管理上的改革和投入更多的资金去重新振兴国家的空间计划的话，我们将有使美国太空领域的垄断遭受巨大损失的风险。

低估这个新的竞争者可能在短期来讲能带来政治上的便利。但是从长期远景来看却是愚蠢的甚至是危险的。我们难道必须再从痛苦中去学到这点吗？

摘抄于英文网站，原文如下：

On Feb. 20, America will celebrate the 40th anniversary of John Glenn's historic flight of Friendship 7. This was an important milestone in the space race with the Soviet Union. The race began with the Russian launch of Sputnik and ended when Americans walked on the surface of the moon. No human has traveled beyond low-Earth orbit since 1972. Despite years of perceived stagnation in space, could a new race back to the moon, or even to Mars, be on the horizon? Perhaps so.

While the United States' human space program has remained in orbit, a new space power is emerging from the shadows. The People's Republic of China will likely soon become the third country to successfully launch a human into orbit. China's space program, covered in a veil of secrecy in the past, is now poised to take a giant step forward.

Despite restrictions on personal and political freedoms, China has moved forward economically and technologically. For many years now, tens of thousands of Chinese nationals have attended U.S. colleges and universities seeking technical education and training. These skills are going back to China and turning the agrarian country into a modern, technically evolving society.

In 1992, after years of false starts, China announced plans to develop a human space program by the turn of the century. In the mid-1990s, Chinese space experts visited Russia and purchased several items from the Russian space program, including engines, life-support systems and spacesuits. China didn't copy the Russian systems; they radically improved and modified them to meet their own carefully thought-out needs.

Dramatically, in November 1999, Shenzhou 1 (Divine Vessel) lifted off atop a newly modified Long March rocket. The unmanned spacecraft made 14 orbits and a successful landing in Mongolia. The Shenzhou craft appears similar to a Russian Soyuz, but is larger and much more capable. The ever-cautious Chinese followed their initial success with another mission 14 months later, with a crew of a monkey and a dog. This time the Shenzhou craft carried out complex maneuvers to change its orbit and altitude--both critical steps toward rendezvous and docking capabilities. The date of the next Shenzhou flight is not known, but many analysts believe it may occur in the coming weeks. If all goes well, a human piloted mission could occur before the end of 2002.

China has even announced plans to send probes to the moon, and has put forth the goal of landing their astronauts--called Taikonauts--on the moon within the next 10 years. While extremely ambitious, the Chinese appear to be building great technical momentum and public support for their space program. Becoming a world power in space can only complicate an already complex geopolitical situation. With the United States withdrawing from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, a new Chinese foray into space should be observed with concern.

Are we prepared for a new space race? During the last 20 years, NASA has accomplished several major successes. The space shuttle remains a monumental achievement in aerospace development. Today, after years of congressional budget battles and redesigns, the International Space Station is under construction and occupied year-round by three astronauts.

Unfortunately, the U.S. space program is also mired in political ambivalence. Amazingly, we spend less than 1 percent of the federal budget annually for the civilian space program. Meanwhile, the Chinese are seeing great benefits--both tangible and intangible--from their space exploration efforts. What better way to demonstrate to the world its ascension to ''superpower status'' than by mastering space?

Just imagine in 10 or so years a Chinese Taikonaut walking over and dislodging the American flag placed on the lunar surface by Neil Armstrong or bringing back to Earth experiments left behind by Apollo moonwalkers. How would we react? More important, how should this nation react today to this new potential competitor?

Many experts, inside and outside the government, dismiss or even embrace the new Chinese activism in space. However, as we witnessed last September, intelligence experts can be strikingly wrong in their predictions and analysis--sometimes with deadly consequences. Failure to act today, to revitalize this nation's space program with management reforms and new spending, risks a significant loss of U.S. hegemony in space. Underestimating this new competitor might be politically convenient in the short term, but foolhardy and even dangerous in the long term. Must we learn ''the hard way'' again?