今天各个论坛上都在转类似《美国国防部建议台攻击三峡大坝》的文章，说是美国防部报告建议台湾为吓阻大陆武力犯台，可攻击三峡大坝。还借用美国《国防新闻》周刊的嘴巴说这是美国美国国防部出的主意，是“挑衅”、和“不负责任”。引来愤青们的一阵阵的喷粪：

心平如水 ：朝????美国佬，尽出馊主意，中国13亿人不死光光，他在解放战争、朝鲜战争和越南战争的颜面永远找不回来了！！！

UA850 ：呵呵，造谣啊！！民主，人道的美国从不会乱杀人的，美国怎么会说这种话？！

－－－－－只要有点头脑，并能思考一下的人都会知道，作为一个大国的国防部即使心里有这样的想法或有这样的作战计划，也不会公开表达的并向外国“政府”建议的。那么这种自虐的报道是怎么出笼的呢？这在咱反美愤青的嘴巴里，只要糯动一下就可以了：将台湾“可能考虑”改为“可”，并将“评估”改为“建议”，就大功告成了。事实上，台湾军方将领六月八日表示，过去军方内部确实有过类似研究计划，不过国军缺乏中程导弹，加上战机作战半径有限，正规军事上，目前要执行这类反制计划能力有限。 这说明美国的评估是得当的。

从现有报道来看，所有的有关“台湾”-“三峡”的这类信息都来源于美国的>(Defense News),那么就来看看美国的国防新闻周刊是怎么说的：

Taiwan might consider deterring mainland China from flexing its military muscle by targeting urban populations or high-value infrastructure such as the Three Gorges Dam, a new Pentagon report says.

The self-governing island, regarded by Beijing as a maverick state to be brought under control, might also attack China’s computer networks, crippling airports, communications nodes and command-and-control centers, the report says.

-------被爱国愤青所批判的所有的信息全部出自以上两句话，懂英文的愤青看看，何处有“建议”两字？这里两次出现“mighy",这是口气最强的可能之意(不可确定性最高)，第一个"mighit"后面还跟了个”consider",也就是可能考虑，这怎么能让愤青(包括愤青记者)借读出美国建议台湾攻击三峡来的？

要说最先提出可以攻击民用设施--三峡大霸的，要属于中国人民解放军空军的两个大校军官了，他们于1999年写出了>一书，受到广大的爱国愤青的好评，按照愤青们的逻辑，本-拉登炸楼也就是我军大校军官建议和策划的了。怎么一听说台湾可能会考虑借鉴一下超限战了，愤青们就狂犬起来了？己所不欲，勿施与人也。

六月七日出版的美国「国防周刊」报导，五角大厦在上月二十八日送交国会的五十四页「中国军事评估」年度报告中指出，台湾为了吓阻中国侵犯，可能考虑瞄准中国高人口密度城市，或高价值基础建设，例如三峡水坝。国防周刊引述五角大厦的报告说，台湾也可能瘫痪中国的电脑网路、机场、交通枢纽及指挥管制中心。

对于五角大厦评估台湾可能攻击三峡水坝，国防周刊访问了美国传统基金会两岸问题专家谭慎格。谭慎格表示，五角大厦能够公开讨论台湾在受到中国进犯之后如何进行反制报复，是非常重要的事，而攻击三峡水坝「绝对是一个好主意」。谭慎格警告，如果台湾没有一个可信的反制能力，到头来美国还是得下场跟中国一战。

不过美国国防大学中国军事问题专家柯尔认为，攻击三峡的策略收效有限。柯尔说，中国那么大，目标那么多，他不相信一旦战争爆发，中国会因为一两个目标被炸毁而缩手。

－－－－愤青们看清楚了，那个谭慎格才是该被批的对象，因为他说攻击三峡水坝「绝对是一个好主意」，只不过他是个学者，批判价值不大。那些还在强辩美国的确建议攻击三峡的左派们，请去看看英文的报告，看不懂可以借助金山词霸嘛。

－－－－如果，中国国防部的评估报告说拉登下一次的袭击可能考类炸美国的核电厂，那么是否就是《中国建议拉登炸美国核电厂》？美国国务院评估报告说基地组织可能会袭击美国AMTRACK，那就是《美国建议基地组织袭击美国火车运输系统》？这不是笑话吗？

中国的爱国愤青都喜欢模拟自己被强 奸，更喜欢到处张扬，太有趣的现象。我怀疑他们是患了被迫害妄想症，他们这些左派和愤青们呢，在正常状态下，已经不能勃起了，需要通过变态的自虐才能挺一会儿，可悲啊，这样下去，早晚得废了。

美国新闻周刊的全文附后。

外交部：美心怀叵测要台攻三峡 我意志不可撼动 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------http://www.sina.com.cn 2004年06月11日10:34 新华网 　　台军想炸三峡触犯反人类罪 必遭毁灭性打击　　美军围着台海搞演习 图谋进驻台湾军事基地　　新华网北京6月10日电(记者黄富慧 荣燕) 外交部发言人刘建超10日在答记者问时说，美国国防部近日公布的2004年度《中国军事力量年度报告》充满冷战思维，心怀叵测。

　　在外交部例行记者会上有记者问：美国国防部5月底公布的2004年度《中国军事力量年度报告》中建议台湾将三峡大坝作为军事目标，中方对此有何评论？刘建超说，如果你刚才提及的内容属实，那就清楚地表明这个报告充满冷战思维，心怀叵测。刘建超说，中国政府在台湾问题上的政策是坚定不移的，我们将以最大的诚意、尽最大的努力争取祖国和平统一的前景，决不容忍“台独”、决不容忍任何人以任何方式把台湾从中国分割出去。任何事情都撼动不了中国人民实现祖国统一的坚定意志和决心。

　　刘建超说，我们敦促美方以实际行动履行布什总统多次重申的“坚持一个中国政策、遵守中美三个联合公报、反对‘台独’”的承诺，不向“台独”势力发出错误信号，以免损害台海和平稳定和美国自身的利益。(完)

Posted 07 June, 2004 12:00 EST Print-friendly version --------------------------------------------------------------------------------Pentagon Outlines Ways Taiwan Can Deter China By JASON SHERMANTaiwan might consider deterring mainland China from flexing its military muscle by targeting urban populations or high-value infrastructure such as the Three Gorges Dam, a new Pentagon report says.

Released May 28, the 54-page look at China’s military strategy and modernization contains a review of Taiwanese offensive options in the face of Beijing’s much larger armed forces — a first for the Pentagon’s annual report to Congress.

The self-governing island, regarded by Beijing as a maverick state to be brought under control, might also attack China’s computer networks, crippling airports, communications nodes and command-and-control centers, the report says.

Beijing’s military modernization, meanwhile, is steadily “eroding the spatial, temporal and distance challenges that have historically inhibited using force against Taiwan,” the report says. “The cross-Strait balance of power is steadily shifting in China’s favor.”

It hazards no guess as to when China’s military will surpass Taiwan’s in technological sophistication, but Taiwan’s deputy defense minister has said he believes the advantage will shift by 2012.

Each summer, the Pentagon is required to report on China’s current and future military strategy. Congress passed the law requiring the report in 1999, when China was perceived by many in Washington to be the most immediate military threat.

“I think this report tells us that China is continuing a slow, steady modernization of its military force,” said Bernard Cole, an expert on China’s military at the National Defense University.

The report outlines trends in each of the services that make up the People’s Liberation Army, as China’s military is called, as well as the Pentagon’s take on China’s strategy.

Beijing’s conventional modernization efforts focus on a potential war with Taiwan, and take into account possible U.S. military intervention.

The United States switched its diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979. Over the next two decades, it helped arm Taiwan to deter military aggression from mainland China, but maintained limited contact. In the late 1990s, the Pentagon stepped up military cooperation with Taiwan.

Washington is encouraging Taipei to pursue a number of defense reforms, including weaving Taiwan’s militaries into a computer-networked force, increasing jointness across its services, and acquiring defenses against Chinese missiles.

Defense analysts who study the security situation across the Taiwan Strait believe that Beijing is planning a scenario where its air, sea and missile systems quickly decapitate Taiwan’s leadership and then deter U.S. military intervention.

John Tkacik Jr., a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a Washington-based think tank, said it is important that the Pentagon now openly discusses Taiwan’s options for deterring China by developing the means to retaliate with attacks on cities or critical infrastructure like the Three Gorges Dam.

“I think it’s a perfectly good idea,” Tkacik said. “If Taiwan does not have a credible stand-off strike capability, in any kind of battle situation it will be the U.S. [military] that will have to take the battle to China. I think that makes any kind of a conflict much more manageable if those strikes are from Taiwan and not from the U.S.”

Cole questioned the effectiveness of such a strategy.

“China is so big and there are so many targets that I don’t see a target set that would convince Beijing to lay off if some sort of conflict broke out,” said Cole.

Peng Yuan, an expert in Sino-U.S. relations and visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution, said the focus on military modernization outside the context of China’s broader economic, industrial and cultural modernization gives a distorted view of an aggressive improvement program.

“The report is imbalanced,” said Peng, who is also deputy director and associate professor of the American Studies Center at Hubei University in Wuhan, China.

The report said the Chinese military took note of the 21-day U.S.-led operation in Iraq that toppled Saddam Hussein.

“The speed of coalition ground force advances and the role of special force in [Operation Iraqi Freedom] have caused PLA theorists to rethink their assumptions about the value of long-range precision strikes, independent of ground forces in any Taiwan conflict scenario,” it says.

Watching Iraq

The Pentagon also believes the swift operation in Iraq has reinforced China’s decision to accelerate acquisition of improved information technology and improvements to its weapons mobility, firepower and precision weapons capabilities.”

China’s military budget is far greater than the $25 billion announced by Beijing in March. The Pentagon put the figure between $50 billion and $70 billion, right behind the United States in military spending, and ahead of Japan.

In the last year, China has increased the number of short-range ballistic missiles deployed in the region across from Taiwan from 450 to 500. China is developing medium-range ballistic missiles that will be deployed “in the near future.”

Its military modernization continues to be closely tied to purchases from Russia, which climbed 7 percent in the last year. These deals include a $1 billion deal for 24 Su-30 fighter aircraft and $500 million for SA-20 surface-to-air missile systems.

China’s long-term defense industrial goal of domestically producing weapons on par with those of the industrialized world within the next decade will be met with uneven success “at best,” the report notes.

“With few exceptions, such as ballistic missile research, development and production, most of China’s domestic defense industries are inefficient and remain vulnerable to dependencies on foreign suppliers of technology,” the report says.

One recent success, however, is China’s space enterprise. In 2003, Beijing launched and recovered its first manned space mission. This civilian effort, the Pentagon argues, is part of a larger drive to advance military space capabilities including reconnaissance, navigation and communications. E-mail: jsherman@defensenews.com.