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中国武力收回台湾是中国人的灾难
送交者: williaml 2007年11月17日21:46:51 于 [军事天地] 发送悄悄话

As a Chinese, I support Taiwan united with China. However, a simple loss-gain analysis would easily prove that using force to take over Taiwan is a stupid approach:

Loss of using force to take over Taiwan:
(1) Destroy Chinese economy: China's economy largely depends on the export to US and Europe. A stupid war against Taiwan would easily destroy the Chinese economy.
(2) Destroy Chinese millitary power: Chinese millitary power is rising steadily largely thanks to China's economy. However, its power is far weaker than US and Russia. Without a war in another 20 years, Chinese millitary power has a good chance to catch up with US and Russia. However, with a war with Taiwan, Chinese millitary power at best will stall for another 20 years, and could be totally destroyed if US gets too much involved.
(3) Destroy Chinese reputation: Taiwan is different than Tibet. Tibet under Chinese rule is more like US and Canada under European rule. However, Taiwan is more like East/West Germany and North/South Korea. Who in the world should support a war of South/North Korea against North/South Korea?
(4) Making Chinese lives back to the one before 1990s: with the economy in a bad shape, can Chinese have a good life?
(5) Killing Chinese lives in both mainland and Taiwan: the Civil war of 1940s was stupid and killed millions of Chinese lives, this new civil war is stupid too and will kill a lot of Chinese lives.
(6) Risking a large scale war with US: if US goes into a large scale war with China, then China will end up like Soviet Union: China will be divided into 8 or 10 countries.

Gain of the war with Taiwan:
(1) Most likely a small probability of taking Taiwan back to China: this may happen if US is not involved at all, but US will be involved almost for sure as so many interest groups in US would benefit the support for Taiwan during a war.
(2) Releasing anger like Sadam Husein of Iraq did: unfortunately Sadam Husein ended up dead.
(3) Showing off Chinese pride: Sadam Husein showed off his pride when he took over Kuwuit.

The conclusion: 卧薪尝胆

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