今天各個論壇上都在轉類似《美國國防部建議台攻擊三峽大壩》的文章，說是美國防部報告建議台灣為嚇阻大陸武力犯台，可攻擊三峽大壩。還借用美國《國防新聞》周刊的嘴巴說這是美國美國國防部出的主意，是“挑釁”、和“不負責任”。引來憤青們的一陣陣的噴糞：

心平如水 ：朝????美國佬，盡出餿主意，中國13億人不死光光，他在解放戰爭、朝鮮戰爭和越南戰爭的顏面永遠找不回來了！！！

UA850 ：呵呵，造謠啊！！民主，人道的美國從不會亂殺人的，美國怎麼會說這種話？！

－－－－－只要有點頭腦，並能思考一下的人都會知道，作為一個大國的國防部即使心裡有這樣的想法或有這樣的作戰計劃，也不會公開表達的並向外國“政府”建議的。那麼這種自虐的報道是怎麼出籠的呢？這在咱反美憤青的嘴巴里，只要糯動一下就可以了：將台灣“可能考慮”改為“可”，並將“評估”改為“建議”，就大功告成了。事實上，台灣軍方將領六月八日表示，過去軍方內部確實有過類似研究計劃，不過國軍缺乏中程導彈，加上戰機作戰半徑有限，正規軍事上，目前要執行這類反制計劃能力有限。 這說明美國的評估是得當的。

從現有報道來看，所有的有關“台灣”-“三峽”的這類信息都來源於美國的>(Defense News),那麼就來看看美國的國防新聞周刊是怎麼說的：

Taiwan might consider deterring mainland China from flexing its military muscle by targeting urban populations or high-value infrastructure such as the Three Gorges Dam, a new Pentagon report says.

The self-governing island, regarded by Beijing as a maverick state to be brought under control, might also attack China’s computer networks, crippling airports, communications nodes and command-and-control centers, the report says.

-------被愛國憤青所批判的所有的信息全部出自以上兩句話，懂英文的憤青看看，何處有“建議”兩字？這裡兩次出現“mighy",這是口氣最強的可能之意(不可確定性最高)，第一個"mighit"後面還跟了個”consider",也就是可能考慮，這怎麼能讓憤青(包括憤青記者)借讀出美國建議台灣攻擊三峽來的？

要說最先提出可以攻擊民用設施--三峽大霸的，要屬於中國人民解放軍空軍的兩個大校軍官了，他們於1999年寫出了>一書，受到廣大的愛國憤青的好評，按照憤青們的邏輯，本-拉登炸樓也就是我軍大校軍官建議和策劃的了。怎麼一聽說台灣可能會考慮借鑑一下超限戰了，憤青們就狂犬起來了？己所不欲，勿施與人也。

六月七日出版的美國「國防周刊」報導，五角大廈在上月二十八日送交國會的五十四頁「中國軍事評估」年度報告中指出，台灣為了嚇阻中國侵犯，可能考慮瞄準中國高人口密度城市，或高價值基礎建設，例如三峽水壩。國防周刊引述五角大廈的報告說，台灣也可能癱瘓中國的電腦網路、機場、交通樞紐及指揮管制中心。

對於五角大廈評估台灣可能攻擊三峽水壩，國防周刊訪問了美國傳統基金會兩岸問題專家譚慎格。譚慎格表示，五角大廈能夠公開討論台灣在受到中國進犯之後如何進行反制報復，是非常重要的事，而攻擊三峽水壩「絕對是一個好主意」。譚慎格警告，如果台灣沒有一個可信的反制能力，到頭來美國還是得下場跟中國一戰。

不過美國國防大學中國軍事問題專家柯爾認為，攻擊三峽的策略收效有限。柯爾說，中國那麼大，目標那麼多，他不相信一旦戰爭爆發，中國會因為一兩個目標被炸毀而縮手。

－－－－憤青們看清楚了，那個譚慎格才是該被批的對象，因為他說攻擊三峽水壩「絕對是一個好主意」，只不過他是個學者，批判價值不大。那些還在強辯美國的確建議攻擊三峽的左派們，請去看看英文的報告，看不懂可以藉助金山詞霸嘛。

－－－－如果，中國國防部的評估報告說拉登下一次的襲擊可能考類炸美國的核電廠，那麼是否就是《中國建議拉登炸美國核電廠》？美國國務院評估報告說基地組織可能會襲擊美國AMTRACK，那就是《美國建議基地組織襲擊美國火車運輸系統》？這不是笑話嗎？

中國的愛國憤青都喜歡模擬自己被強 奸，更喜歡到處張揚，太有趣的現象。我懷疑他們是患了被迫害妄想症，他們這些左派和憤青們呢，在正常狀態下，已經不能勃起了，需要通過變態的自虐才能挺一會兒，可悲啊，這樣下去，早晚得廢了。

美國新聞周刊的全文附後。

外交部：美心懷叵測要台攻三峽 我意志不可撼動 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------http://www.sina.com.cn 2004年06月11日10:34 新華網 　　台軍想炸三峽觸犯反人類罪 必遭毀滅性打擊　　美軍圍着台海搞演習 圖謀進駐台灣軍事基地　　新華網北京6月10日電(記者黃富慧 榮燕) 外交部發言人劉建超10日在答記者問時說，美國國防部近日公布的2004年度《中國軍事力量年度報告》充滿冷戰思維，心懷叵測。

　　在外交部例行記者會上有記者問：美國國防部5月底公布的2004年度《中國軍事力量年度報告》中建議台灣將三峽大壩作為軍事目標，中方對此有何評論？劉建超說，如果你剛才提及的內容屬實，那就清楚地表明這個報告充滿冷戰思維，心懷叵測。劉建超說，中國政府在台灣問題上的政策是堅定不移的，我們將以最大的誠意、盡最大的努力爭取祖國和平統一的前景，決不容忍“台獨”、決不容忍任何人以任何方式把台灣從中國分割出去。任何事情都撼動不了中國人民實現祖國統一的堅定意志和決心。

　　劉建超說，我們敦促美方以實際行動履行布什總統多次重申的“堅持一個中國政策、遵守中美三個聯合公報、反對‘台獨’”的承諾，不向“台獨”勢力發出錯誤信號，以免損害台海和平穩定和美國自身的利益。(完)

Posted 07 June, 2004 12:00 EST Print-friendly version --------------------------------------------------------------------------------Pentagon Outlines Ways Taiwan Can Deter China By JASON SHERMANTaiwan might consider deterring mainland China from flexing its military muscle by targeting urban populations or high-value infrastructure such as the Three Gorges Dam, a new Pentagon report says.

Released May 28, the 54-page look at China’s military strategy and modernization contains a review of Taiwanese offensive options in the face of Beijing’s much larger armed forces — a first for the Pentagon’s annual report to Congress.

The self-governing island, regarded by Beijing as a maverick state to be brought under control, might also attack China’s computer networks, crippling airports, communications nodes and command-and-control centers, the report says.

Beijing’s military modernization, meanwhile, is steadily “eroding the spatial, temporal and distance challenges that have historically inhibited using force against Taiwan,” the report says. “The cross-Strait balance of power is steadily shifting in China’s favor.”

It hazards no guess as to when China’s military will surpass Taiwan’s in technological sophistication, but Taiwan’s deputy defense minister has said he believes the advantage will shift by 2012.

Each summer, the Pentagon is required to report on China’s current and future military strategy. Congress passed the law requiring the report in 1999, when China was perceived by many in Washington to be the most immediate military threat.

“I think this report tells us that China is continuing a slow, steady modernization of its military force,” said Bernard Cole, an expert on China’s military at the National Defense University.

The report outlines trends in each of the services that make up the People’s Liberation Army, as China’s military is called, as well as the Pentagon’s take on China’s strategy.

Beijing’s conventional modernization efforts focus on a potential war with Taiwan, and take into account possible U.S. military intervention.

The United States switched its diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979. Over the next two decades, it helped arm Taiwan to deter military aggression from mainland China, but maintained limited contact. In the late 1990s, the Pentagon stepped up military cooperation with Taiwan.

Washington is encouraging Taipei to pursue a number of defense reforms, including weaving Taiwan’s militaries into a computer-networked force, increasing jointness across its services, and acquiring defenses against Chinese missiles.

Defense analysts who study the security situation across the Taiwan Strait believe that Beijing is planning a scenario where its air, sea and missile systems quickly decapitate Taiwan’s leadership and then deter U.S. military intervention.

John Tkacik Jr., a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a Washington-based think tank, said it is important that the Pentagon now openly discusses Taiwan’s options for deterring China by developing the means to retaliate with attacks on cities or critical infrastructure like the Three Gorges Dam.

“I think it’s a perfectly good idea,” Tkacik said. “If Taiwan does not have a credible stand-off strike capability, in any kind of battle situation it will be the U.S. [military] that will have to take the battle to China. I think that makes any kind of a conflict much more manageable if those strikes are from Taiwan and not from the U.S.”

Cole questioned the effectiveness of such a strategy.

“China is so big and there are so many targets that I don’t see a target set that would convince Beijing to lay off if some sort of conflict broke out,” said Cole.

Peng Yuan, an expert in Sino-U.S. relations and visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution, said the focus on military modernization outside the context of China’s broader economic, industrial and cultural modernization gives a distorted view of an aggressive improvement program.

“The report is imbalanced,” said Peng, who is also deputy director and associate professor of the American Studies Center at Hubei University in Wuhan, China.

The report said the Chinese military took note of the 21-day U.S.-led operation in Iraq that toppled Saddam Hussein.

“The speed of coalition ground force advances and the role of special force in [Operation Iraqi Freedom] have caused PLA theorists to rethink their assumptions about the value of long-range precision strikes, independent of ground forces in any Taiwan conflict scenario,” it says.

Watching Iraq

The Pentagon also believes the swift operation in Iraq has reinforced China’s decision to accelerate acquisition of improved information technology and improvements to its weapons mobility, firepower and precision weapons capabilities.”

China’s military budget is far greater than the $25 billion announced by Beijing in March. The Pentagon put the figure between $50 billion and $70 billion, right behind the United States in military spending, and ahead of Japan.

In the last year, China has increased the number of short-range ballistic missiles deployed in the region across from Taiwan from 450 to 500. China is developing medium-range ballistic missiles that will be deployed “in the near future.”

Its military modernization continues to be closely tied to purchases from Russia, which climbed 7 percent in the last year. These deals include a $1 billion deal for 24 Su-30 fighter aircraft and $500 million for SA-20 surface-to-air missile systems.

China’s long-term defense industrial goal of domestically producing weapons on par with those of the industrialized world within the next decade will be met with uneven success “at best,” the report notes.

“With few exceptions, such as ballistic missile research, development and production, most of China’s domestic defense industries are inefficient and remain vulnerable to dependencies on foreign suppliers of technology,” the report says.

One recent success, however, is China’s space enterprise. In 2003, Beijing launched and recovered its first manned space mission. This civilian effort, the Pentagon argues, is part of a larger drive to advance military space capabilities including reconnaissance, navigation and communications. E-mail: jsherman@defensenews.com.