川普总统外交七板斧

随意生活

2020年1日13日

昨天，《Business Insider 》刊登署名文章，题为

“Trump's blundering attempts to strong arm Iran follow the same pattern as the China trade-war mess”，颇有意思。

文章描述川普处理外交事务（尤其是中国、伊朗事物）的模式（pattern ），有如下七个步骤，姑且称为“七板斧”。

第一板：发现问题

Step 1: There is a legitimate problem.

第二板：挑起争斗，企图解决问题

Step 2: Trump starts a fight to address the problem. In China's case, the trade war. In Iran's case, his "maximum pressure" campaign of economic sanctions.

第三板：好斗口水战升级

Step 3: As the fight goes on, Trump's language becomes increasingly bellicose, and so does his opponent's.

第四版：针锋相对，关系紧张化

Step 4: A tit-for-tat ratcheting-up of tensions ensues, with parties threatening or engaging in aggressive action.

第五板：威胁恐吓走极端，对手却相对冷静

Step 5: Trump makes threats or engages in extremely aggressive action, and his opponent seems to stand down from doing anything rash.

第六板：紧张局势缓解，但双边关系却恶化，相互间的善意与信任丧失殆尽

Step 6: Tensions cool, but the relationship between Trump and his opponent, and their constituents, sours. Any goodwill is gone. Trust dissipates.

第七板：前四板无效，返回第一板。

Step 7: Return to Step 1.

如此周而复始，恶性循环，问题不但没解决，由于关系恶化，显得更加棘手。

文章虽以美中贸易战与伊朗事务为例，川普总统这七板斧模式也适用于北韩问题。虽然川普时而要喝自己的核按钮大，时而与金小三把酒言欢，折腾了几年，北朝鲜的核问题却未得到一丝一毫的解决。