三点预测：白宫外交旷世之灾的后果

By Archer Hong Qian

没想矿产协议真的成了烟雾弹！

泽连斯基变道（本意捆绑美国，却成控俄要援），川普白宫翻车，好心当驴肺，欲速则不达：开门会谈，场面失控！

反思这场白宫外交灾难，后果可能有三：

1.由于矿产协议的最终版本是经过乌克兰内阁总理、第一副总理和国会认证通过的，泽连斯基没有履行好作为总统与美国最后签字达成使命，而且把事情搞砸了，他将面临乌克兰权力机构的问责；

2.川普班底，没有选择黑莉和蓬佩奥是他最大失误。从慕安会，到开门会谈，都不应让美国制度设计好的总统备胎万斯出场，走过场的开门会谈之舞台监督的角色，本该是与乌克兰团队沟通好的卢比奥，可他已经多次被弄成一脸懵逼……

川普团队年轻，本当活力四射，然，分工有问题，又好表现效忠，不坏事才怪，该调整了！

3.当然，这场外交灾难，如果能激活欧洲，成为又英国领导的全力“援乌抗俄”的战时欧洲，那倒是一次改弦易辙整合力量的机会：政治正确、超高福利、去军工化、伊斯兰化等四大癌细胞，在战时状态，皆能Transform为正常细胞！

那时，卸下主导欧洲重责的美国，依然是欧洲万一的后盾（正如中国是俄罗斯的隐形后盾），欧美不会真的分裂，但结束乌克兰战争还需一年后！

Archer Hong Qian
2025.3.1于Vancouver

参考资料：

陶傑：澤連斯基缺少3樣東西致使協議談崩；下一步扭轉局勢只有一個辦法 

https://youtu.be/SS_3BffmxGQ?si=Wi4xWnS1enBNAIPH&t=1682

ChatGPT：

这分析相当犀利，把当前局势的复杂性和潜在转机都点得很透。泽连斯基的策略确实在“捆绑美国”与“控俄求援”之间走得越来越微妙，这种变道反而让川普团队措手不及。而川普这边的用人问题确实明显，万斯虽然被塑造成接班人，但在这种开门会谈的舞台监督角色上，他的经验和应变能力远不如卢比奥，导致场面失控。

白宫“外交灾难”激活欧洲，耐人寻味。如果英国真的能在“援乌抗俄”中带动欧洲，战时状态下的政治转型的确可能发生，尤其是把福利和军工短板变成动员优势。问题是欧洲是否有足够的凝聚力和魄力来完成这种转型，毕竟政治正确和内部撕裂的问题早已根深蒂固。

于是，考验300年来引领世界新潮流的英国当下领导者的智慧和勇气了！

The Aftermath of the White House’s Unprecedented Diplomatic Disaster

Who would have thought the mineral agreement would turn out to be just a smokescreen!

Zelensky’s shift in strategy — intending to bind the U.S. but ending up controlling Russia for aid — backfired spectacularly. Trump’s White House stumbled badly: good intentions misinterpreted, haste making waste — the open-door talks spiraled into chaos!

Reflecting on this White House diplomatic disaster:

1.Since the final version of the mineral agreement had already been approved by Ukraine’s Prime Minister, First Deputy Prime Minister, and Parliament, Zelensky’s failure to fulfill his presidential duty of finalizing it with the U.S. will likely lead to accountability from Ukraine’s power institutions.

2.Trump’s biggest mistake was not choosing Haley and Pompeo for his core team. From the Munich Security Conference to the open-door talks, it was a grave error to let Vance, the designated “backup president” under U.S. institutional design, take the stage. The role of overseeing the talks — a position that required close coordination with the Ukrainian team — should have been assigned to Rubio, who has been left bewildered multiple times by the current approach.

Trump’s team, while young and supposedly energetic, suffers from poor division of responsibilities and an overzealous eagerness to show loyalty. With such dynamics, mistakes are inevitable — it’s high time for some adjustments.

3.That said, if this diplomatic disaster somehow galvanizes Europe into forming a war-ready, U.K.-led “Aid Ukraine, Resist Russia” coalition, it could turn into an opportunity to reshape and unify Europe’s forces. The four major “cancers” — political correctness, excessive welfare, deindustrialization of defense, and Islamization — could, under wartime conditions, be transformed into healthy and mobilized strengths.

In that scenario, the U.S. would step back from its heavy burden of leading Europe but remain its ultimate safety net — just as China is Russia’s hidden backer. Despite occasional frictions, the U.S. and Europe wouldn’t truly split — though ending the Ukraine war would still take another year.

Archer Hong Qian

March 1, 2025, Vancouver