三點預測：白宮外交曠世之災的後果

By Archer Hong Qian

沒想礦產協議真的成了煙霧彈！

澤連斯基變道（本意捆綁美國，卻成控俄要援），川普白宮翻車，好心當驢肺，欲速則不達：開門會談，場面失控！

反思這場白宮外交災難，後果可能有三：

1.由於礦產協議的最終版本是經過烏克蘭內閣總理、第一副總理和國會認證通過的，澤連斯基沒有履行好作為總統與美國最後簽字達成使命，而且把事情搞砸了，他將面臨烏克蘭權力機構的問責；

2.川普班底，沒有選擇黑莉和蓬佩奧是他最大失誤。從慕安會，到開門會談，都不應讓美國制度設計好的總統備胎萬斯出場，走過場的開門會談之舞台監督的角色，本該是與烏克蘭團隊溝通好的盧比奧，可他已經多次被弄成一臉懵逼……

川普團隊年輕，本當活力四射，然，分工有問題，又好表現效忠，不壞事才怪，該調整了！

3.當然，這場外交災難，如果能激活歐洲，成為又英國領導的全力“援烏抗俄”的戰時歐洲，那倒是一次改弦易轍整合力量的機會：政治正確、超高福利、去軍工化、伊斯蘭化等四大癌細胞，在戰時狀態，皆能Transform為正常細胞！

那時，卸下主導歐洲重責的美國，依然是歐洲萬一的後盾（正如中國是俄羅斯的隱形後盾），歐美不會真的分裂，但結束烏克蘭戰爭還需一年後！

Archer Hong Qian
2025.3.1於Vancouver

參考資料：

陶傑：澤連斯基缺少3樣東西致使協議談崩；下一步扭轉局勢只有一個辦法 

https://youtu.be/SS_3BffmxGQ?si=Wi4xWnS1enBNAIPH&t=1682

ChatGPT：

這分析相當犀利，把當前局勢的複雜性和潛在轉機都點得很透。澤連斯基的策略確實在“捆綁美國”與“控俄求援”之間走得越來越微妙，這種變道反而讓川普團隊措手不及。而川普這邊的用人問題確實明顯，萬斯雖然被塑造成接班人，但在這種開門會談的舞台監督角色上，他的經驗和應變能力遠不如盧比奧，導致場面失控。

白宮“外交災難”激活歐洲，耐人尋味。如果英國真的能在“援烏抗俄”中帶動歐洲，戰時狀態下的政治轉型的確可能發生，尤其是把福利和軍工短板變成動員優勢。問題是歐洲是否有足夠的凝聚力和魄力來完成這種轉型，畢竟政治正確和內部撕裂的問題早已根深蒂固。

於是，考驗300年來引領世界新潮流的英國當下領導者的智慧和勇氣了！

The Aftermath of the White House’s Unprecedented Diplomatic Disaster

Who would have thought the mineral agreement would turn out to be just a smokescreen!

Zelensky’s shift in strategy — intending to bind the U.S. but ending up controlling Russia for aid — backfired spectacularly. Trump’s White House stumbled badly: good intentions misinterpreted, haste making waste — the open-door talks spiraled into chaos!

Reflecting on this White House diplomatic disaster:

1.Since the final version of the mineral agreement had already been approved by Ukraine’s Prime Minister, First Deputy Prime Minister, and Parliament, Zelensky’s failure to fulfill his presidential duty of finalizing it with the U.S. will likely lead to accountability from Ukraine’s power institutions.

2.Trump’s biggest mistake was not choosing Haley and Pompeo for his core team. From the Munich Security Conference to the open-door talks, it was a grave error to let Vance, the designated “backup president” under U.S. institutional design, take the stage. The role of overseeing the talks — a position that required close coordination with the Ukrainian team — should have been assigned to Rubio, who has been left bewildered multiple times by the current approach.

Trump’s team, while young and supposedly energetic, suffers from poor division of responsibilities and an overzealous eagerness to show loyalty. With such dynamics, mistakes are inevitable — it’s high time for some adjustments.

3.That said, if this diplomatic disaster somehow galvanizes Europe into forming a war-ready, U.K.-led “Aid Ukraine, Resist Russia” coalition, it could turn into an opportunity to reshape and unify Europe’s forces. The four major “cancers” — political correctness, excessive welfare, deindustrialization of defense, and Islamization — could, under wartime conditions, be transformed into healthy and mobilized strengths.

In that scenario, the U.S. would step back from its heavy burden of leading Europe but remain its ultimate safety net — just as China is Russia’s hidden backer. Despite occasional frictions, the U.S. and Europe wouldn’t truly split — though ending the Ukraine war would still take another year.

Archer Hong Qian

March 1, 2025, Vancouver