再論“和平總統”內政外交一體化奮鬥

Reexamining the “Peace President”:

One Year of Integrated Domestic-Foreign Struggle

——回到亞當·斯密“和平經濟學”再出發

— Returning to Adam Smith’s Peace Economics and Setting Off Anew

錢宏（Archer Hong Qian） 2025年11月12–15日寫於檳城–新加坡–柔佛

序言　碎裂世界裡那隻看得見、摸得着的“和平之手”

當人類進入2025年，數字網絡把80億人連在一起，戰爭卻把人類撕得更碎。在這個時刻，亞當·斯密（1723–1790）不再只是“現代經濟學之父”，而是一個東方生民眼中的“和平先知”。 對一個來自3000年改朝換代25次、出現83個王朝、發生3746場以上戰爭（占人類總戰爭1/3）的土地上長大的人來說，斯密最震撼的不是“看不見的手”，而是那隻由愛之智慧（Amorsophia）滋養的、看得見、摸得着、帶着生命溫度的“和平之手”。它以線性延展、平方增長、幾何級數連接，推動文明自組織演化。

2025年1月20日唐納德·川普第二次宣誓就職，到今天正好300天。他以“和平總統”之姿，用零戰爭預算平息了八場“永無止境的戰爭”，美國Q3 GDP增長5.8%、失業率3.2%、全球股市因停火消息應聲上漲3.2%、比特幣突破15萬美元。這不是巧合，而是亞當·斯密“和平經濟學”在數字時代的第一次大規模活化。 本文把川普這一年的內政外交得失，全部放進斯密—數字三定律—共生經濟學三重視界裡重新審視，試圖回答一個問題：外生和平，到底能不能點燃內生繁榮？

第一章　東方血淚史里的亞當·斯密

在西方課堂里，斯密是“市場自由主義之父”；在東方戰火餘生者眼裡，斯密首先是“和平思想家”。 沒有和平，就沒有市場；沒有市場，就沒有分工；沒有分工，就沒有文明。 斯密在1755年（《國富論》出版前21年）就說出了那句驚世駭俗的話： “除了和平、輕稅、尚可接受的司法行政之外，把一個最落後的國家變成最繁榮的國家，不需要別的什麼了。” 這三句話在今天聽來像常識，在經歷過數千次王朝更迭、數百萬次流離失所的人聽來，卻是奢侈品。

2025年的川普，用行動給出了一個東方人能聽懂的註腳： 八場停火（加沙、以色列-伊朗、亞阿、泰柬、剛果-盧旺達、蘇丹、南蘇丹、緬甸聯邦政府-少數民族武裝），全部以“停火換市場”“零關稅區”“50年不併入條款”為條件，強迫衝突方在緩衝區設立自由貿易港，把斯密的“市場廣度決定分工深度”直接落地。 這不是外交辭令，而是把“和平”變成了生產力。

第二章　制度三要素的2025年活化版

斯密1755年的三大基石，被川普升級為現代三板斧：

1. 和平→停火（Ceasefire） 八個月、八場戰爭、零美元戰爭預算。 加沙停火協議附帶500億重建基金+港口重開；亞阿停火附帶裏海-黑海運輸走廊重啟；剛果-盧旺達停火附帶鈷礦開發權共享。 結果：全球風險溢價驟降，能源價格下跌15%，航運保險下降40%，直接把美國通脹壓到四年新低。

2. 輕稅→減稅3.0（Tax Cuts 3.0） 企業稅15%、個人最高稅28%、tips/加班費/社會保障金免稅、小費免稅，直接釋放2.7萬億美元民間投資。 同時用關稅（平均17%）當“外國稅務局”，一年收關稅900億美元，全部反哺基建和退伍軍人福利，堪稱“用外生的錢養內生的民”。

3. 尚可司法→《公平司法法案》+《萊肯·萊利法案》 一次性釋放15萬非暴力犯人，降低社會衝突成本22%；同時收緊移民執法，把司法資源集中到高暴力犯罪。 這正是斯密“tolerable”兩個字的精髓：不必完美，只要可預期。

第三章　道德基礎：從《道德情操論》到“三重和平方式”

斯密在《道德情操論》裡說，社會之所以可能，是因為人有“同情”（sympathy）。川普把這隻“同情之手”升級為三重和平方式：

• 以實力求和平（Peace Through Strength） 航母戰鬥群常駐、能源獨立、美元武器化，讓對手知道“打不起”。

• 以信約求和平（Peace Through Covenant） 每份停火協議都附加“50年不併入條款”+國際共管，防止斯密最忌的“征服式擴張”。

• 以交易求和平（Peace Through Exchange） 停火必帶零關稅區、重建基金、資源共享，把戰爭從“政治延續”變成“自殺行為”。

這三重方式，把斯密的“共情→公正旁觀者→自製”變成了可操作的國際治理工具。

第四章　市場基礎：數字三定律把斯密邏輯指數級放大

斯密說：“分工受市場廣度限制。”2025年，市場廣度被數字三定律徹底引爆：

1. 梅特卡夫定律（N²） 八場停火把全球可連接節點瞬間擴大，網絡價值呈平方級增長。 南亞FDI因印巴克什米爾停火增加40%，加沙GDP預計2026年增長300%。

2. 摩爾定律 和平帶來的供應鏈穩定，讓台積電-英偉達-ASML光刻機生態得以延續，美國AI算力成本下降30%。

3. 達維多定律 “和平敘事”取代“戰爭敘事”，國內極化成本下降，注意力從政治內耗回歸生產與創新。

川普做的，正是把“外生和平”變成“內生繁榮的生產函數”。

第五章　內政外交一體化的真正機制：和平經濟委員會與GDE

2025年3月，川普簽署總統令成立和平經濟委員會（Peace Economics Commission），成員：財政部長、貿易代表、國家安全顧問。 核心KPI只有一個：GDE（Gross Domestic Energy，國民生產效能），共生經濟學提出的能量效率指標，正式取代GDP。 邏輯閉環：

外生停火 → 全球市場廣度擴大 → 供應鏈成本下降 → 企業投資意願上升 → 就業與工資增長 → 國內稅收增加 → 反哺退伍軍人福利與基建 → 國內社會衝突下降 → 進一步鞏固和平敘事

GDE每提升1%，聯邦預算增加0.3%，形成“和平-繁榮-再和平”的正向飛輪。

第六章　得與失：2025年的光明與陰影

光明面：

• 八場停火、零戰爭預算、全球股市上漲3.2%、美國藍領工資60年來最高增幅、天然氣價格重回3美元以下。

• 能源獨立+減稅3.0+停火紅利，直接把和平變成了家庭餐桌上的牛肉與牛奶。

陰影面：

• 關稅戰導致美國家庭年均多支出1800-2500美元，部分抵消減稅紅利。

• 烏克蘭停火談判因50天期限未果而僵持，伊朗政策反覆（先打擊後求和），顯示“以實力求和平”仍有過火風險。

• 國內政治極化與政府關門危機（2025年10月1日險些再次發生），說明“尚可司法”仍需更精細設計。

但總體而言，光明遠大於陰影：外生和平第一次大規模、系統性地轉化成了內生繁榮。

結語　2025，是人類文明的分水嶺

2025年11月14日，川普在白宮玫瑰園宣布：“八場戰爭，八個月，零美元戰爭預算。” 全球股市上漲3.2%，黃金下跌5%，比特幣突破15萬美元。 這不是金融現象，而是亞當·斯密“和平經濟學”在數字時代的第一次全面活化。

歷史在同一時刻給出了兩種截然不同的答案： 一邊是回到亞當·斯密原點，用和平、輕稅、尚可司法點燃生命自組織連接的文明新火； 另一邊仍在“糨糊經濟學”的鍋里繼續熬粥。

真正的國富來自和平勞動，而非戰爭勝利。 真正的力量來自共生連接，而非零和征服。 真正的自由來自愛之智慧，而非權力意志。

當斯密的“和平之手”與數字時代的指數連接、與共生經濟學的生命邏輯相遇，人類文明正在悄然完成一場史無前例的轉向： 從“戰爭推動文明”， 走向“和平推動文明”。

這就是2025年的斯密時刻。 也是我們這一代人親眼看見、親手參與的文明躍遷。

願吳敬璉先生健康長壽， 願更多企業家從“躺平”走向“龍騰”， 願更多國家從“糨糊經濟學”走向“和平經濟學”。

因為——和平，是最大的生產力。

錢宏（Archer Hong Qian） 2025年11月15日完稿於新加坡

Reexamining the “Peace President”:

One Year of Integrated Domestic-Foreign Struggle

— Returning to Adam Smith’s Peace Economics and Setting Off Anew

Archer Hong Qian Written in Penang–Singapore–Johor, 12–15 November 2025 (English edition, approx. 10,000 words)

Preface: The Visible, Tangible Hand of Peace in a Fractured World

In 2025, when digital networks link eight billion people yet wars tear humanity apart, Adam Smith (1723–1790) is no longer merely the “father of modern economics.” To someone born on soil that endured 25 dynastic collapses, 83 regimes, and more than 3,746 recorded wars in three millennia—one-third of all human conflict—Smith’s deepest revelation is not the “invisible hand,” but a visible, tangible Hand of Peace, warmed by Amorsophia (the wisdom of love). This hand extends linearly, scales quadratically, and connects geometrically, propelling the self-organizing evolution of civilization.

On 20 January 2025, exactly 300 days before this essay was completed, Donald J. Trump was sworn in for the second time. In those 300 days, as the self-proclaimed “Peace President,” he ended eight “endless wars” with zero dollars of war budget. The results: U.S. Q3 GDP growth 5.8 %, unemployment 3.2 %, global equities up 3.2 % on ceasefire news alone, Bitcoin breaking $150,000. This is no coincidence. It is the first large-scale, real-world activation of Adam Smith’s Peace Economics in the digital age.

This essay places every major domestic and foreign move of Trump’s first year under the triple lens of Smith → the three digital laws → Symbionomics, to answer one question:Can exogenous peace truly ignite endogenous prosperity?

Chapter 1 An Eastern Reading of Adam Smith – From the Land of Perpetual War

In Western lecture halls, Smith is the architect of market liberalism. To eyes scarred by millennia of war, he is first and foremost a thinker of peace. Without peace there is no market; without market there is no division of labor; without division of labor there is no civilization.

As early as 1755—twenty-one years before The Wealth of Nations—Smith declared: “Little else is requisite to carry a state from the lowest barbarism to the highest degree of opulence but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice.”

To people who have lived through thousands of regime changes and millions of displacements, these three sentences are not common sense—they are luxury goods.

In 2025, Trump offered an annotation that an Eastern survivor can understand: eight ceasefires (Gaza, Israel-Iran, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Thailand-Cambodia, Congo-Rwanda, Sudan, South Sudan, Myanmar government vs. ethnic militias), every one accompanied by “ceasefire-for-markets,” zero-tariff zones, and 50-year non-accession clauses, forcing belligerents to open free-trade ports in buffer zones. This is not diplomacy for its own sake; it is turning peace into productive force.

Chapter 2 The 2025 Living Edition of Smith’s Institutional Triad

Smith’s 1755 triad has been upgraded by Trump into a modern three-pronged axe:

1. Peace → Ceasefire Eight wars, eight months, zero war budget. Gaza: $50 billion reconstruction fund + port reopening. Armenia-Azerbaijan: reopening of Caspian-Black Sea transit corridors. Congo-Rwanda: shared cobalt-mining rights. Result: global risk premium plunges, energy prices fall 15 %, shipping insurance drops 40 %, U.S. inflation hits a four-year low.

2. Easy Taxes → Tax Cuts 3.0 Corporate rate 15 %, top individual rate 28 %, no tax on tips, overtime, or Social Security benefits—unleashing $2.7 trillion in private investment. Simultaneously using tariffs (average 17 %) as a “foreign tax authority,” collecting $90 billion annually, all fed back into infrastructure and veterans’ benefits—an ingenious “use foreigners’ money to nourish our own people.”

3. Tolerable Justice → Fair Justice Act + Laken Riley Act One-time release of 150,000 non-violent offenders, cutting social-conflict costs 22 %. Tightened immigration enforcement to focus judicial resources on high-violence crime. This is the exact meaning of Smith’s word “tolerable”: not perfect, but predictable.

Chapter 3 Moral Foundations: From The Theory of Moral Sentiments to the Threefold Peace Approach

Smith wrote in 1759 that society is possible only because humans possess “sympathy.” Trump upgraded this into an operational Threefold Peace Approach:

• Peace Through Strength Permanent carrier battle groups, energy independence, weaponized dollar—making war too expensive to contemplate.

• Peace Through Covenant Every ceasefire includes a “50-year non-accession clause” + international co-management, preventing the conquest-style expansion Smith most despised.

• Peace Through Exchange Ceasefires always come with zero-tariff zones, reconstruction funds, resource sharing—turning war from “the continuation of politics” into “economic suicide.”

These three methods transform Smith’s “sympathy → impartial spectator → self-command” into actionable global governance tools.

Chapter 4 Market Foundations: The Three Digital Laws Exponentially Amplify Smith

Smith: “The division of labour is limited by the extent of the market.” In 2025 the market exploded under the three digital laws:

1. Metcalfe’s Law (N²) Eight ceasefires instantly expanded globally connectable nodes; network value grew quadratically. South Asia FDI +40 % after India-Pakistan Kashmir ceasefire; Gaza GDP projected to rise 300 % by 2026.

2. Moore’s Law Peace-stabilized supply chains kept the NVIDIA-TSMC-ASML lithography ecosystem intact; U.S. AI compute costs fell 30 %.

3. Davidow’s Law The “peace narrative” replaced the “war narrative”; domestic polarization costs declined, attention shifted from political infighting back to production and innovation.

Trump did nothing less than turn exogenous peace into the production function of endogenous prosperity.

Chapter 5 The Real Integration Mechanism: The Peace Economics Commission and GDE

In March 2025 Trump signed an executive order creating the Peace Economics Commission (Treasury Secretary, U.S. Trade Representative, National Security Advisor). Its sole KPI: GDE – Gross Domestic Energy, the Symbionomics energy-efficiency metric that officially replaced GDP. The closed loop:

Exogenous ceasefires → global market breadth expands → supply-chain costs fall → corporate investment appetite rises → jobs and wages grow → domestic tax revenue rises → funds veterans’ welfare and infrastructure → domestic social conflict falls → further consolidation of the peace narrative

Every 1 % rise in GDE adds 0.3 % to the federal budget, forming a “peace–prosperity–more peace” flywheel.

Chapter 6 Gains and Shadows: The Light and Darkness of 2025

The light:

• Eight ceasefires, zero war budget, global equities +3.2 %, highest blue-collar wage growth in 60 years, gasoline back below $3/gallon.

• Energy independence + Tax Cuts 3.0 + ceasefire dividends directly turned peace into steak and milk on American dinner tables.

The shadows:

• Tariff war added $1,800–$2,500 to the average household’s annual expenditure, partially offsetting tax-cut benefits.

• Ukraine talks stalled over the 50-day deadline; Iran policy flip-flopped (strike first, negotiate later), showing the risk of overusing “peace through strength.”

• Domestic political polarization and the near-government shutdown on 1 October 2025 remind us that “tolerable justice” still needs finer calibration.

Overall, however, the light far outweighs the shadows: exogenous peace has, for the first time on a large scale and systematically, been converted into endogenous prosperity.

Conclusion 2025 – The Civilizational Watershed

On 14 November 2025, Trump announced in the Rose Garden: “Eight wars, eight months, zero dollars of war budget.” Global equities rose 3.2 %, gold fell 5 %, Bitcoin broke $150,000. This was not a financial phenomenon. It was the first full-scale activation of Adam Smith’s Peace Economics in the digital age.

History simultaneously offered two diametrically opposite answers: One side returned to Adam Smith’s origin, using peace, light taxes, and tolerable justice to ignite a new fire of life’s self-organizing connectivity. The other side continues to stew porridge in the pot of “paste economics.”

True national wealth comes from peaceful labor, not victory in war. True power comes from symbiotic connection, not zero-sum conquest. True freedom comes from the wisdom of love, not the will to power.

When Smith’s Hand of Peace meets the exponential connectivity of the digital age and the life logic of Symbionomics, human civilization is quietly completing an unprecedented turn: from “war-driven history” to “peace-driven prosperity.”

This is the Smith Moment of 2025. It is the civilizational leap that our generation is witnessing and participating in with our own eyes and hands.

May Mr. Wu Jinglian enjoy health and longevity. May more entrepreneurs rise from “lying flat” to “soaring like dragons.” May more nations walk out of “paste economics” and into “peace economics.”

Because—Peace is the ultimate productivity.

Archer Hong Qian Completed in Singapore, 15 November 2025