美国务卿蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)的首次亚洲行十分引人注目，蒂勒森不仅要面对北朝鲜日益恶化的核危机，还要给中美关系定调。在北朝鲜问题上，蒂勒森一度表示以前的种种努力都是失败的，因此解决北朝鲜核威胁，包括军事手段在内的一切选择都不能排除。但蒂勒森不久就淡化这一强硬态度，称加大经济制裁仍是首选政策。

在中美关系上，蒂勒森在接受独家采访时进行了深入阐述。原文揭露附后，中文大意为，“我认为两国领导人需要更多对话，加深理解各自的重点和期望。中美关系处于一个重要的历史时刻。这一关系以尼克松访华以来的四十年间的发展为标志。其间两国求同存异，除了朝鲜半岛，我们从来没有军事冲突。尽管中国经济增长，在世界占据重要位置，我们总是设法共同相处，避免冲突。不是我们之间没有分歧，而是我们要么解决分歧，要么接受现实。接受现实，向前看，符合两国各自利益。但我认为由于全球化的进程，世界强国关系可能进入一个拐点。我也认为中美必须重新对话，以便确定未来五十年的关系。我们可以回头看四十年的成功，但我们有日益增加的未解争端，我们必须讨论这些问题，设法寻求避免冲突的解决之道，进而奠定未来中美关系。中美之间不是没有分歧，但我们将寻找如何共处下一个五十年。我想中国领导人也会考虑如何共处这一问题。

    EM: Going back to the relationship with China — just one question on that for now — which is, you referred in your confirmation hearing to them at one point as a partner on one issue, as an ally on another. Can you say whether or not China is a potential friend? Is it an adversary? Is it a global competitor, a regional competitor? How do you define it now? And what do you want to define it as in six months?

    RT: Well, again, I think that requires more conversations by the two leaders and a greater understanding from both sides as to their priorities, ours, their aspirations and ours. I do think we’re at somewhat of a historic moment in the U.S.-China relationship. It has been defined for the past 40 years by the opening of China, the Nixon-Kissinger visit. During that time, by and large, the U.S. and China have found a way to exist together in this world, to deal with our conflicts. We’ve never fought a war with each other, other than on the Korean peninsula. That’s the only time we’ve fought a war with each other. And even as China’s country and economy have grown, and now occupies its place in the global economy, we have always managed to exist with one another in a spirit of non-conflict. It doesn’t mean we don’t have differences, but we’ve always found ways to either resolve them or to live with them. Accept that we have differences and move on and still do what’s in the best interest of our people, and China in the best interest of theirs. But I do think because of what is happening globally with people in the world over — globalization itself — that we’re at perhaps at an inflection point in the relationship of global powers in general. And I do think that the Chinese and the U.S. need to have a fresh conversation about what will define the relationship between the United States and China for the next 50 years. We can look back and see how successful we’ve been, 40 years of what I would say has been a very successful relationship with two very powerful nations living with one another without conflict. But now we find that there are issues arising that have gone unresolved. And I think how we are able to talk about those and how we are able to chart our course forward is going to set, potentially, the relationship in a new era of existing together without conflict, in an era of non-conflict. Again, it doesn’t mean we won’t have differences, but we will find how are we going to live with one another for the next 50 years. Because I think there’s a question, perhaps even in the minds of the Chinese: How will the American people, the Chinese people, live with each other in this world for the next half century?

这一独家采访是在蒂勒森赴京访问前进行的。蒂勒森在北京访问两天，并有媒体报道他的最新言论。有分析家认为蒂勒森过于温和，对中美关系的态度甚至有如习近平新型大国关系的翻版。敏感人士讲蒂勒森和习近平2014年讲话进行对比，发现十分相似（见 链接）。讲话对比见图一和图二。蒂勒森这一超级温和的姿态和特朗普誓言建立强大海军抗衡中国的政策形成鲜明对照（见《川普对亚太地区的理念：和平依靠力量》）。

尽管基于一两次谈话来推测外交政策过于草率，但蒂勒森反复强调中美关系中的非冲突性和共赢原则，无疑是个重要信号。如果这一原则当真，美国似乎很难对华过于强硬，在贸易和南海等主要争议上，北京或可维持很多既得利益。当然蒂勒森也可能口蜜腹剑，但国务卿一般不会信口开河，因此蒂勒森的言论不可轻视。在中美关系非冲突性和共赢原则指导下，只要中国不让美国太难堪，中美关系预计不会有大风大浪。

图一 蒂勒森访华讲话

图二 习近平2014年讲话

作者：藿香子

时间：2017年3月20日

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