Lights, Cameras, Little Action at Talks
U.S. Theatrical Maneuvering Mostly Fails to Budge Chinese

By Ariana Eunjung Cha
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, December 16, 2006; Page D01

BEIJING, Dec. 15 -- The Chinese might have been forgiven for thinking they were watching an American movie.

No trope of stagecraft went unexplored this week as the United States jockeyed for advantage in a high-level economic dialogue with China. There was a good-cop, bad-cop routine: Susan C. Schwab, the U.S. trade representative, accused China of "backsliding" on re????s, while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke spoke in a patient, scholarly voice about how much it would benefit China to accede to U.S. currency demands.

Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. led the U.S. delegation.
Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. led the U.S. delegation. (By Guang Niu -- Getty Images)
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There was bullying, with several reminders from the Americans that the United States is China's No. 1 export customer -- the implication being that the wide-open U.S. market could slam shut if the Chinese aren't careful.

There was coaxing, with the Americans telling the Chinese they could improve their image as good economic citizens if they would adopt the U.S. program.

It was hard to tell what the Chinese thought about the show.

They set the stage with flair, rolling out red carpets and luscious Chinese delicacies in the ornate Great Hall of the People. But much of the action transpired behind closed doors, with journalists left to glean bits of in????ation from after-the-fact briefings.

In public, the Chinese were impassive and tough, reminding the visiting Americans of their country's problems and of the need for social stability as China undergoes profound economic trans????ation. "Some American people are not only having limited knowledge of the reality of this country" but also "even harbor some misunderstandings," Vice Premier Wu Yi declared, not once, but twice -- in her opening and closing remarks.

In the end, the Chinese didn't give much ground. As the first Strategic Economic Dialogue spearheaded by Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. wound up Friday, the two sides announced several small-scale, mostly symbolic agreements.

What they did not announce was a breakthrough on the most contentious economic issue between the countries: the value of China's currency in relation to the dollar.

While most countries allow market forces to determine the exchange rate for their currency, China's central bank fixes its value within a narrow band. It has moved a few percentage points in the past year, but many Western economists complain that the yuan is still priced too low, with estimates ranging from 15 to 40 percent. The effect, they contend, is to make Chinese goods unfairly cheap on overseas markets, driving an export boom in China, while making Western-made goods extraordinarily expensive on the Chinese mainland.

On the currency issue, Paulson's counterpart, Finance Minister Jin Renqing, offered only a vague commitment to pursue "exchange-rate regime re????." The incoming U.S. Congress is expected to take a tough stand in 2007 after an election in which many of the winning Democrats ran on skepticism about free trade.

One of Paulson's goals in launching a dialogue with the Chinese was to move beyond the ????ality of state meetings with their characteristic tone: two countries talking past one another. In that respect, the meeting was a success. U.S. officials described blunt, tense exchanges on some issues, such as Chinese complaints about American restrictions on the export of high technology and U.S. concern that China's oil deals in Africa are bolstering repressive governments.

"When we disagree, we do so with mutual respect and an eye towards finding agreement where possible, and it was in that spirit in which we conducted our meetings," Paulson said.

The two sides announced modest agreements Friday that had, in some cases, been in the works for weeks or months. For example, two U.S. securities exchanges, the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq Stock Market, will be allowed to open more elaborate offices in China, furthering their hope of capturing the business of the giant Chinese companies that are starting to sell shares to the public. In the past year, most of that business has gone to Hong Kong and London.

U.S. and Chinese leaders also announced working groups on service-sector development; improving health care, energy and the environment; and easing investments and promoting transparency. Those groups will present their findings at the next strategic dialogue, in Washington in May.

The countries also agreed on terms to expand financing for companies that want to export U.S. goods to China, a measure that had been in the works for about a year but had stalled.

James H. Lambright, chairman of the Export-Import Bank of the United States, said that as the strategic economic dialogue approached, it became clear to everyone how important it would be over time to increase U.S. exports.

Exports have been a surprising source of strength for the U.S. economy this year. The Chinese have long vowed to expand their consumer economy so ordinary people could afford goods from home and abroad.

"We now have a better understanding of how our interests intersect," Lambright said.

中美对话成果有限 美参院要员不耐烦
(博讯2006年12月16日)
中美对话第二日美国参院要员写信施压鲍尔森

综合消息：中美首次美中战略经济对话15日闭幕，但中美分歧仍然存在。美国国会两位重量级的议员当天致函鲍尔森，敦促美国加大对中国的压力，敦促中国政府提高人民币的币值。中美双方一致认为增加人民币汇率弹性对于缓解两国贸易失衡问题至关重要，但并没有宣布任何可以加速以上进程的具体措施，也没有提出具体时间表。分析称，两国在贸易上相互依存的格局已经形成，只能求同存异，通过对话逐步减少贸易摩擦。 (博讯 boxun.com)

　　美国之音报道，美国财政部长鲍尔森率领阵容强大的代表团在北京与中国进行了首次战略经济对话，争取解决中美贸易中存在的一系列问题。经过两天会谈后，双方在原则上同意解决美中贸易不平衡的问题，并就在促进贸易、开放市场、保护环境等领域加强合作达成共识，但在人民币汇率、市场准入以及保护知识产权等关健问题上的分歧依然存在。

美国国会议员等不起了

　　虽然中美两国在对话中达成部分共识，但有美国国会要员对此并不满意。即将就任参议院银行委员会主席的民主党参议员多德和即将卸下这个职务的共和党参议员谢尔比在致鲍尔森的信中，对等待中国在遥远的将来让人民币汇率浮动的想法表示不耐烦。他们说：“我们不能继续在等待这个长期目标的同时忍受微不足道的短期行动的后果。”

　　两位参议员说，专家估计人民币被低估了15%到40%，使中国制造的产品在美国的消费市场上过于便宜，导致美国的工作机会流失。

中美对话侧重点不同

　　观察人士指出，中美双方之间的问题仍然存在，主要是因为在这次会谈中的侧重点明显不同。美国认为，单纯务虚是不够的，中国必须采取具体措施解决两国贸易不平衡不断扩大的问题，仅仅举行谈判已经不足以平息美国国内对美中贸易现状的强烈不满。中国则认为，这次中美战略对话的主题是中国的发展道路和中国的经济发展战略，而不是解决中美贸易的具体问题。

　　中美分歧从中国国务院副总理吴仪的讲话中即可品味出来。吴仪在两天会谈结束后与鲍尔森共同会见记者时表示，此次对话非常成功，双方的讨论“坦率而富有成果”。但对于引起争议的人民币汇率问题，吴仪并没有发表评论。她说，双方的分歧仍然存在是可以理解的，因为中国与美国的实际情况完全不一样。

　　北京大学经济学院教授商德文说，美国方面不满意这次会谈的结果，这在意料之中。他说：“美国来之前就向国会提交了一个报告，说中国的市场是扭曲的，市场经济不完善。他提出这个调子，压力是挺大的。但是，也不能单看美国一个方面，也要看中国，中国也要考虑自身的利益。美国不满意，也只能求同存异，以后再慢慢地谈吧。”

两国贸易相互依存

　　在北京的分析人士普遍认为，美中首次经济战略对话只能就减轻贸易摩擦确立一个架构，期待这次会谈产生具体结果是不现实的。北京大学经济学院的商德文教授说，中美两国在贸易上是相互依存的关系，彼此间的矛盾只能通过协商来解决。

　　商德文说：“假使中美贸易切断的话，对美国多数人也没有什么好处，因为在美国市场上，轻工业品、生活用品是中国产品占的比重很大。现在已经是互相依赖，谁也离不开谁。所以，有些问题只能磋商，不能说：‘我制裁你。’这样是不太友好的。”

中国将加大汇率弹性

　　鲍尔森说，中国保证实行更灵活的人民币汇率，但没有确定时间表。鲍尔森表示，双方达成的共识将使今后的对话更富有成果，这次会谈只是美中两国长期贸易战略对话的开始。

　　鲍尔森说：“我们将各自针对全球贸易不平衡的问题采取措施，美国方面主要是通过增加国内储蓄，中国方面则是通过增加国内消费和施行更灵活的人民币汇率，而且两国都要继续开放投资市场。”

　　中国代表团团长、副总理吴仪说，两天的会谈非常有益和具有建设性。她表示，美国和中国之间存在很多分歧是可以理解的，关健在于如何对待这些分歧。

商务部斥美国报告不客观

　　美国贸易代表办公室于12月11日发布了关于中国履行WTO承诺情况的报告。中国商务部新闻发言人15日召开例行新闻发布会表示，美国报告的许多指责不客观、不全面，与实际情况不符。中国对此表示遗憾，并敦促美国以客观、实事求是的态度看待和处理双边经贸关系中的问题。

　　商务部发言人表示，该报告总体上对中国加入世贸组织五年来为全面履行WTO承诺所做出的努力和取得的成绩给予了肯定，中国对此表示赞赏。同时中国也注意到，美国在知识产权、产业政策、服务贸易等领域对中国履行承诺的情况给予了批评。中国认为，美国的许多指责不客观、不全面，与实际情况不符。

　　发言人称，作为世界上两个贸易大国，中美两国之间存在一些各自关注的问题在所难免。中国愿本着合作精神，通过对话增进理解，与美国妥善处理有关问题。商务部披露的最新数据显示，今年1至11月，中美贸易额达2387亿美元，同比增长24.6%。其中，中国自美进口539亿美元，同比增长 23%。

慢升符合中国需要

　　中美战略经济对话15日结束，人民币对美元汇率中间价14日、15日接连创出历史新高，15日达到7.8185：1。中国人民银行货币政策委员会委员、经济学家樊纲表示：“中国当前的外汇政策是适当的，符合中国经济平稳持续增长的需要。人民币小步升值，不仅防止中国经济出现大的波动，而且也有利于打击投机资金。”

　　其实，在“小慢步”趋势下，人民币累计升值已达到“可观幅度”。如果以兑换1美元计算，从2006年1月初人民币汇率为8.0702元/美元起，如今人民币升值价差达到0.2517元。

　　对于中国巨额外汇储备和高顺差的问题，樊纲表示，单靠人民币升值并不能缓解这两个问题，这也不应成为当前呼吁人民币升值的理由。“中国外部经济平衡关系的调整，是一个非常复杂的问题。我们应该动态、全面地去从各个方面进行经济结构的调整，实现相对平衡。而国际市场，只过多地考虑他们自己的利益。”

附：中美经济对话成果一览

　　中国承诺会加大汇率的弹性

　　美国支持中国加入泛美开发银行

　　双方同意在中国设立纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克代表处

　　明年重启双边航空服务谈判

　　中国将加入“未来发电计划”政府指导委员会

　　利用现有机制，增加有效且可持续性的能源利用、促进个人旅游和商务活动、发展援助和多边开发银行贷款等方面的双边合作

　　就发展高效和创造性的服务业和改善医疗的途径进行讨论

　　启动双边投资对话

　　在有效保护知识产权、加强法治和消除贸易与投资壁垒的基础上，建立开放、竞争性市场