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万维读者网 > 彩虹之约 > 帖子
关于小靳庄婚介所第一期投资贷款可信性风险的评估
送交者: 闻神羊 2004年06月07日10:28:37 于 [彩虹之约] 发送悄悄话

I watched the recent 小靳庄婚介所 FAN (fund) Raising application, and the fan fair surrounded by the new market, I advice any investors, who will jump into this market, to excercise cautions in this round of venture capital FAN (fund) raising. Because the business model has several holes need to be addressed before it becomes feasible.

1) The business plan never consider the risk, or side effect of it service (core Product) cost: namely the Customer Support department. If they are prompting this service product under the "CHRISTIAN" brand, it implied a key quality of that brand name - Life Time Warranty of "Love". Otherwise, this service could be a libility to 小靳庄婚介所's parent company "Rainbow Forums' key business: namely witnessing Christ, and leading others to Christ. However, as any other physical 婚介所 business, 售后服务 cost is very high, in term of time, 24x7 service hours, and requirement for qualified maintainence crew. Currently, 小靳庄婚介所 need to improve on this area, and present a viable business plan.

2) The main market research is only based on one known success story. The company need to have much more product samples, including both success and failed story, to statistically prove an sucess rate on online dating.

3) This Online Dating Service market is highly fragmented by the Geography factor, and the market is relatively new. Due to the nature of this business, the company would not be able to monitor it's sevice closely. Unless they require customers to sign contract to "cc" the board on every dating email or only exchange message publicly on this board. Currently, we do not know how the potential customers reaction would be and if that might cause prvacy law issue in China or US. They should do a market survey the customer reaction, for example, ask WhiteDove, Hesed, Peixing, etc if they are willing to cc this board or use this forums to date.

4) The current self volunteered board does not have enough experience in this business. Their perspectives on the market, espeically on their "product-to-sell" are either one-sided, or short-sighted (no real life long experience yet). For example, the CEO was proud that their market slogan is "精品服务" , which is very misleading and can cause wrong expectations amoung its customers. Actually, based on the product manuel (Bible), their "product-to-sell" are all "sinners", and all have known and unknown major defects; and issues might surface anytime, controled by two internal forces within; and statistically prove that a lot of quality issues can easily be triggered after marriage, when external 摩擦 in extra-close distance (heart-beat range). Thus the market branding slogan should focus on the "售前培训”according to the manual, and focus on direct intervent from the manufacturor. This is the only way to improve product qualify before product entering the market, to help the product to develop build-in self-sensitive, self-tuning (adjusting), self-repair skills and how to seek power from direct above.
It is also desireable to teach them how to work in the new environment, for example yielding (not yelling), how to thinking from the other side, how to appreciate, etc. But that's even harder job to do, and could delay the first "sale contract", the product to market cycle.

5) Currently, the potential qualified venture capital investors, who are seasoned in this field, in this forum have all been silient, for example, 范老,杨老,梓樱。。。。 The only investor so far is 新民,however, his financial support are conditional and can only be materialized in the next 3, 5, 10 years, thus his support are questionable, symbolic at best.
Therefore, other investors should wait and watch these tycoon VCs to step up first. Once these VC investors are commited and invited to a seat in the board, this 婚介所 could be a hot stock to watch. And if they are hired to lead the "售前培训" or "售后服务" department, potential customers should not wasted any time to sign in immediately, otherwise, they might miss the first chance and regret for the rest of their life.

So, in summary, 小靳庄婚介所 is a noble idea, could be a major development in this forum, but the next few weeks would be a critical period to watch. If it could quickly correct it's business model and direction, and signed more seasoned Venture Captical Investers on board, it will get market support and become a success business. Otherwise, it could be the next DOT COM bubble, yet might cause life long damage to some of its customers.

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