哀，莫大於心死 —— 美國越戰老兵返家到底多少自殺？

高曉松《曉說》中說，越戰美軍死亡5.8萬，回國後自殺8萬；

這位作者也說8萬：殺一個人是犯罪，殺一百萬個人只是個數字。越南戰爭長達12年，美軍死亡5.6萬餘人，30多萬人受傷，老兵回國自殺人數高達8萬！http://k.sina.com.cn/article_1198503091_476fb4b3019001906.html

越戰老兵 BERNARD A. HEENEY 1991年致信紐約時報道：

¶ Suicides among Vietnam veterans have been said to be 50,000 to 100,000. At any time during the Vietnam conflict, there were 37 million males aged 18 through 35. Of this group approximately 2.6 million served in Vietnam. Of the entire 37 million male population there have been approximately 152,000 suicides.

¶ If 50,000 to 100,000 Vietnam veterans commited suicide, that would mean that between one-third and two-thirds of all the suicides in the 37 million population came from the 2.6 million subgroup. There is no factual evidence to support this assertion.

¶ The best estimate of suicide among Vietnam veterans, from the Centers for Disease Control in 1988 Congressional testimony, is 9,000.

¶ As a Vietnam veteran who regularly visits veterans' hospitals, I fully understand how war wounds the mind as well as the body. However, the problem of veterans of all wars should be considered without sensationalism, and not to make political points. BERNARD A. HEENEY Bayonne, N.J., Feb. 20, 1991.

谷歌翻譯：

¶越南老兵的自殺率據說是5萬到10萬。在越南衝突期間，18歲至35歲的男性有3700萬人。在這個群體中，約有260萬人在越南服務。在全部3700萬男性中，大約有152,000人自殺。

¶如果5萬到10萬越南老兵自殺，那意味着3700萬人口中三分之一到三分之二的自殺者來自260萬人。沒有事實證據支持這一說法。

1988年美國疾病控制中心的國會證詞中，越南退伍軍人自殺的最佳估計是9000人。

¶作為經常訪問退伍軍人醫院的越南退伍軍人，我完全理解戰爭是如何傷害身心的。但是，一切戰爭退伍軍人的問題都應該被視為沒有轟動效應，而不是制定政治觀點。 BERNARD A.Heene Bayonne，N.J.，1991年2月20日。

老兵 Michael Kelley 1997 撰文論述

A typical example can be found in an article entitled Healing My Own Wounds, an article published in a 1996 issue of The California Zephyr. Among its otherwise thoughtful observations is a statement emblematic of a general misrepresentation now the cause of severe heartburn among many of us whom it colors. Without attribution of any sort, the author emphasizes our war's tragic legacy by informing us that "Since the end of the Vietnam War, approximately 150,000 veterans have taken their own lives."1

"Reports of large numbers of suicides among Vietnam veterans began to appear in 1980. In that year, a manual on the treatment of post traumatic stress disorder included a statement that more Vietnam combat veterans had committed suicide than were killed in Vietnam. In 1981, [the March 18, issue of the Seattle Times reported] that since their return from Vietnam more than 50,000 veterans had committed suicide. The reported number in [the June, 1985, issue of Discover magazine] was 58,000, and it was 60,000 or more in books published in 1986 [Spencer, D., Facing The Wall] and 1987 [Williams, R., Introduction in Unwinding the Vietnam War: From War Into Peace], In 1987...[CBS 60 Minutes, Vietnam 101, 4 Oct 86] broadcast that more than 100,000 Vietnam veterans had committed suicide. In 1988, a network news anchor [CBS Reports: The Wall Within, 2 Jun 88] asserted that between 26,000 and 100,000 suicides had occurred among Vietnam veterans ‘depending on which reputable source you believe..'" 2 and 3

一個典型的例子可以在一篇名為“治療我自己的傷口”的文章中找到，這篇文章發表在1996年的“加利福尼亞州西風”上。在其他的深思熟慮的觀察中，有一個象徵性的陳述，現在是我們許多人的嚴重胃灼熱的原因。作者沒有任何歸屬地，強調了我們的戰爭的悲慘遺產，告訴我們“自越南戰爭結束以來，約有15萬名退伍軍人自殺。”

越南退伍軍人自殺事件的大量報告開始出現在1980年。當年，一篇關於創傷後應激障礙治療的手冊包括越南戰鬥退伍軍人自殺死亡人數超過越南被殺的人數，1981年，據“西雅圖時報”3月18日報道，自從越南回國以來，已有5萬多名退伍軍人自殺，1985年6月發表的“發現”雜誌報道的數字為58,000，達到6萬以上在1986年出版的書籍[Spencer，D.，Facing The Wall]和1987 [Williams，R.，“解開越南戰爭的介紹：從戰爭進入和平”，1987年... [CBS 60 Minutes，Vietnam 101，4 10月86]播出超過10萬越南老兵自殺，1988年，一個網絡新聞主播[CBS報告：牆內，6月2日88]聲稱，在26,000至100,000自殺發生在越南老兵'取決於哪個聲譽好來源你相信.

......  ......  ......

Conclusion

It is the author's opinion that to accept the mythical rates is to abandon intellect and common sense altogether.

Of no small significance in that regard is the fact that high-rate claims remain completely without substantiation of any sort. In all the exhaustive research and reading that went into the preparation of this monograph, not so much as a single shred of verifiable data was ever unearthed that would even remotely suggest Vietnam veterans were killing themselves in greater numbers than our enemy could.

Absent evidence to the contrary, it is impossible to conclude other than that the popularly reported rates of suicide among Vietnam veterans form an urban myth of colossal dimensions. And yet underlying question remains unanswered for us: just how many Vietnam veterans have committed suicide since coming home?

For the sake of argument, presume that one third of all Vietnam veterans are now deceased (a number far above the actual total). If 1,000,000 Vietnam veterans were now dead from all causes, then the AMA/CDC 1.23% overall rate suggests that only 12,300 of those deaths would be the result of suicide.

One VA study indicates that as of 1983 there were fewer than 9,000 Vietnam veteran suicides, and that "...no more than 20,000 Vietnam veterans died from suicide from discharge through 1993" (emphasis added). It goes on to say that even if all Vietnam veteran reported accidental death (only 5% of all veteran deaths, including single-driver car accidents) were presumed to be suicide and included in the suicide total, that total could not exceed 24,000 through the year 1993. 1

Based on the 1997 Australian mortality study and our own VA's 1996 mortality statistics, the actual total mortality of Vietnam veterans (including KIA) as of January 1996 appears to lay in a range of from 208,010 to 363,100. Net of KIA, the range is 150,010 to 305,100. When we apply the overall average suicide rate of 1.23% predicted by the CDC/AMA studies to those totals, we see the following predicted suicide totals for the period ending January 1, 1995:

Total predicted suicides based on US VA data - 1.23% of 305,100, or 3,752 

Total predicted suicides based on the Australian data - 1.23% of 150,010, or 1,845

Given what verifiable data is now available, it would seem reasonable to estimate that as of 1996, a total of somewhere between 2,000 and 20,000 Vietnam veterans had taken their own lives and that the most probable total is less than 4,000, but in any case does not exceed 1.23% of all Vietnam veteran deaths.

結論

作者認為，接受神話費率是放棄智力和常識。

這方面的意義不小，是因為高比率的要求完全沒有任何證據。在編寫本專着的所有詳盡的研究和閱讀中，並沒有發現一個單一的可驗證數據碎片，甚至遠遠表明越南老兵自殺的數量遠遠超過我們的敵人。

如果沒有相反的證據，那就不可能得出這樣的結論：越南退伍軍人中流行的自殺率形成了龐大的城市神話。然而，根本的問題仍然沒有得到解答：有多少越南老兵回家後自殺了？

為了爭辯，假設所有越戰老兵中有三分之一已經死亡（遠遠高於實際總數）。如果1,000,000越南退伍軍人現在死於各種原因，那麼AMA / CDC的總體比率為1.23％，表明這些死亡人數中只有12,300人是自殺的結果。

一項弗吉尼亞州的研究表明，截至1983年，越南老兵自殺的人數不到9000人，“......不超過20000名越南老兵死於自1993年以來的自殺”（強調增加）。接着說，即使所有越南老兵報告意外死亡（包括單車司機在內的所有老兵死亡人數中只有5％）被認定為自殺，並且被列入自殺總數，那麼即使所有越南老兵報告意外死亡總數不超過2.4萬1。1993年

根據1997年澳大利亞死亡率研究和我們自己的弗吉尼亞州1996年死亡率統計數據，截至1996年1月，越南退伍軍人（包括起亞）的實際總死亡率似乎在208,010至363,100之間。起亞網，範圍是150,010至305,100。當我們將CDC / AMA研究預測的總體平均自殺率1.23％應用於這些總數時，我們看到截至1995年1月1日的期間的以下預測自殺總數：

根據美國弗吉尼亞州的數據預測的自殺總數 - 305,100或3.752的1.23％

根據澳大利亞數據預測的自殺總數 - 150,010或1.455的1.23％

鑑於現在有什麼可以證實的數據，估計到1996年為止，總共有2000至20000名越南老兵自殺了，而最可能的總數還不到4000人，似乎是合理的，但無論如何越南老兵死亡人數不得超過1.23％。

http://www.ndqsa.com/suicide.html

文章伊始，作者引述馬克·吐溫名言：

The principal difference between a cat and a lie is that a cat has only nine lives. 

                    ————  Mark Twain

貓和謊言的主要區別在於，貓，僅僅只有九條命。 —— 馬克·吐溫