中國押寶在了一件武器上：導彈。正因如此，華盛頓計劃中的移動反導系統升級把北京嚇壞了。北京的軍事首領認為他們需要升級現存的各型導彈，否則將冒失去對美國海空軍阻嚇能力的風險。尚不清楚美軍的決策者如何看待這個問題。

The PLA “will have to modernize its nuclear arsenal” becauseAmerican missile interceptors “may reduce the credibility of itsnuclear deterrence,” Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu of China’s NationalDefense University told a panel in Beijing on Wednesday. Chenghuelaborated to a Reuters reporter that the U.S. interceptor system“undermines the strategic stability.” He was referring to theUnited States’ planned anti-ballistic missile system, which is slimat the moment, but by 2020 is supposed to shield Europe from short,mid-range and eventually intercontinental missileattacks.
PLA“將不得不進行核武庫的現代化”因為美國的導彈攔截系統“降低了核威懾的可靠性”，中國國防大學朱成虎少將在周三對北京的一個專家小組如是說。他向路透社的記者闡述了美國的攔截系統“侵蝕了戰略穩定性”。他所指的即是美國計劃之中的彈道導彈防禦系統。此時該系統尚顯稚嫩，但到2020年它將能防衛歐洲抵抗各種短、中程乃至洲際導彈的攻擊。
While the shield is intended to defend Europe against an attackfrom Iran, the interceptors are both land- and ship-based — meaningthe system can be packed up and moved. If, say, North Korea startstossing missiles around, the United States could send ships toshoot them down. Those same ships, Chenghu’s thinking goes, couldbe used against China.
儘管防禦系統預期被用來防衛歐洲，抵擋來自伊朗的攻擊，攔截器卻是陸海基通用。這意味着這套系統能被打包、移動。假如朝鮮開始抽風胡亂發射導彈，美國也能夠派遣戰艦將它們擊落。而這些戰艦——朱將軍的思緒紛飛——也能用來對抗中國。
China depends on missiles more than you might think. While China ismodernizing its military by boosting its defense budget,retrofitting a Russian aircraft carrier, and building newsubmarines and destroyers, its security in the near term depends onits massive stockpile of missiles. The U.S. believes Chinapossesses 130 to 195 missiles capable of being armed with nuclearwarheads, according to Reuters. To fill gaps in its conventionalmilitary, China has boosted its missile arsenal up to nearly 2,000non-nuclear ballistic and cruise missiles. It could potentially lobaround a thousand of them as an initial strike weapon againstTaiwan or U.S. bases in the Pacific.
中國比你能想象的更依賴導彈武器。儘管中國正在通過增加國防預算、翻新俄制航母、建造新型潛艇和驅逐艦來進行國防現代化，在短期內其國家安全仍是仰仗於龐大的導彈儲備。據路透社消息，美國相信中國擁有130至195枚可裝載核彈頭的導彈。為了彌補常規軍力的不足，中國將武庫中的彈道及巡航導彈儲備擴充至約2000枚。其中的1000枚有可能被用作對台灣和太平洋美軍基地發動進攻時的第一波攻擊武器。
But that over-reliance on missiles has left China with a glaringvulnerability. That’s where the U.S. missile shield comes intoplay.
然而，過分的信賴導彈武器給中國帶來了一個顯著的弱點。這也正是美國的導彈防禦體系發揮作用的地方。
Today, the main bulwark of the U.S missile shield is in the earlystages of implementation, in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.There’s a radar station in Turkey and the destroyer U.S.S Monterrey— armed with SM-3 interceptors — in the Mediterranean. NATO plansto put in ground-based missile interceptor sites in Romania in2015, and press ahead with more interceptors in Poland by 2018.More stressful from China’s perspective: Alaska and California alsoboth have SM-3 sites.
如今，妨礙美國導彈防禦體系初步展開的主要壁壘在於東歐和中東地區。在土耳其，部署有一座雷達站；在地中海，配備了標3攔截導彈的蒙特雷號驅逐艦在巡弋。北約計劃2015年在羅馬尼亞部署陸基導彈攔截站，到2018年將更多的攔截站推進至波蘭。中國也面臨更大的壓力：阿拉斯加和加利福尼亞也部署有標3攔截站。
And the Pentagon is getting better at downing ballistic missiles.There’s no guarantee the untested system will work in combat. Butin case there’s any doubt about the United States’ role in thePacific over the coming years, the U.S. Navy will emphasize“air-to-air, electronic attack, electronic warfare, anti-submarine,and our capabilities in anti-ship ballistic missile and anti-shipcruise missile defeat,” Adm. Jonathan Greenert told reporters latelast month.
與此同時，五角大樓攔截彈道導彈的技術日趨成熟。但誰也不能保證一個未經測試的系統能在戰鬥中正常工作。為了避免在未來出現對美國在太平洋所起作用的質疑，海軍會強化“空對空、電子攻擊、電子戰、反潛和對抗反艦彈道/巡航導彈的能力”，海軍上將喬納森•格林納特在上月底告訴記者。
That poses a serious risk to China. By investing so much inballistic missiles, the United States responds by upgrading itsmissile defense system. In response, China has to build even moremissiles, in the hope of getting past the system. And it’s not justbuilding more missiles, it’s building more capable ones, too, likethe DF-21D, which is supposed to be able to kill an aircraftcarrier. That’s where the logic of over-relying on missiles takesyou.
這對中國構成了嚴重風險。（中國）對彈道導彈投入巨大，美國卻回應以導彈防禦系統升級。反過來，中國又不得不造更多導彈，期望能突破防禦體系。增加的不僅是導彈的數量，同時還有導彈的質量，例如東風-21D，被認為有獵殺航母的能力。這便是“導彈邏輯”的必由之路。
But there’s an irony in here for the United States, too. Its newanimating concept for the Navy and the Air Force is to be able tostop any adversary from pushing ships, subs, jets and bombers awayfrom its shores or its skies. The number-one way most adversariesdo that: missiles. If China reads the revamped U.S. missile shieldas a provocation that requires a new wave of missile advancement,that’s going to make the Navy and Air Force’s job more complicated.(Complicated isn’t the same as impossible, though.) China may notbe the only nation locked into faulty defense logic.
但這對美國來說也同樣是一個諷刺。對於海空軍，最有意義的策略是將敵人的戰艦、潛艇、飛機拒於國門之外。頭號對手的做法是：導彈。如果中國將升級過的導彈防禦系統視為挑釁，並以新一輪的導彈革新作為回應，海軍和空軍的任務將變得更為複雜（雖然複雜，但並不是做不到）。中國，或許並不是唯一一個被困在錯誤的國防邏輯上的國家。