国士译, 中文首发 

提要:

印军的冷启动战略, 及其近年来大力扩展空军, 海军,和战略武备都无外一个目的 - 在一场两线作战的战争中立于不败.  本文提供了印军方面考虑的很现实的战略目的和手段. 既快速击垮巴基斯坦, 再运用全力逼平中国.

中英文对照

首先我们要清楚我们要面对是怎样形式的战争. 很明确的是我们不可能赢得一场对中国的战争, 中国也同样不能靠战争击败印度. 现在是这样, 将来十年内也是这样.只有双方的伤亡率可以用来进行一场理论上的胜负结论. 中国和印度都无法支撑一场全面的战争.  未来的中印战争将可能是有限度的边界战斗(考虑中印边境的恶劣地理环境, 双方都无法运用重型火炮), 导弹互攻, 精确空中突击, 还有中国海军在两国于国际调停停战之前而可能来试图摧毁印度海军在印度洋上的战略资产用以保证中国海上运输线畅通的军事行动. 而在我们印度的另一面与巴基斯坦的战争却完全可能是一场全面的战争, 特别考虑到巴基斯坦如此热衷于联合中国,并且印巴边界并无喜马拉雅山阻隔而能够进行大规模地面战斗.

巴基斯坦至今没有放弃首先使用核武的政策而且将来也不会. 只要巴基斯坦在西部伺机待发, 我们就不能集中全力应付中国而且我们会比一对一面对中国更加不利. 因此我们的逻辑就是要先对巴基斯坦展开全面进攻. 印度的优先必须是宣战起的第一时间就对巴基斯坦发动超大规模空袭以毁灭巴基斯坦的防空和导弹反击能力. 如果印度没有前期的全盘计划, 和对巴基斯坦空军基地, 导弹基地以及其它战略部署资料的详细情报前, 这将是一个非常难以完成的任务. 但是如此做印度至少可以在战争开始的几天内就消弱甚至完全消除巴基斯坦的攻势威胁. 在1965年的印巴战争中, 巴基斯坦空军就曾奇袭我们北部的机场而让我们遭受重大损失. 但是经过几天激烈空战之后,巴基斯坦空军就因印空军的绝对数量优势而再无法进入印度领空.我们必须预测我们将来(2020年)所需要的战机规划. 这应当包括 SU-30MKI (230架), MMRCA (印度将购买的法国旋风) (126-200架), LCA (200架).还有几个未来战斗机(FGFA)中队(可能是俄制T-50隐型战斗机), 和印度国产MCA中型战斗机中队. 拥有这样的空军, 印度可以期望在短短几天内就消灭巴基斯坦空军 (而且我们有巴基斯坦无法拥有的优势, 地理纵深). 这一阶段的战斗较量将是整个战争中最有决定性, 而且是决定印度未来胜负的战争阶段. (注: 战争一开始就以发动进攻进行决战, 正是印军"冷启动"战略思想核心). 因此我们印度必须为这一刻准备好. 必须坚决的防止中国利用巴基斯坦空军基地进行任何活动, 反之就将是印度的灾难.

而此时中国方面也许在战争初期的状态里进行军事动员准备, 最多是对印度发动一些导弹袭击. 即便是今天中国也有往印度领土发射导弹的能力. 但是在未来十年印度同样具有机会建立自己的导弹力量来回报中国. (我们如今已经能够用烈火-3打到中国任何地方). 中印两国都将在导弹战中遭受损失. 谁有更好的导弹防御系统将决定损失的减少程度. 印度空军在空军其它大部分战机于西部巴基斯坦空军消灭前应对中国保持防御姿态. 只要保护印军免于中国空军攻击即可.

印度海军将有两个重要任务. 一是防止中国海军进入印度洋, 二是尽快消灭巴基斯坦海军. 巴基斯坦空军届时将无力为其海军掩护, 因为它们将全部被困在空中应付印度空军的进攻. 并且巴基斯坦并无航空母舰. 在拥有Brahmos (印俄研制的超音速反舰导弹)和届时可能的Brahmos 2, 还有Mig-29(印海军航母舰载机)和海军版LCA的航母(很可能届时将有三个航母战斗群)的情况下, 第一个任务并不难完成. 但是巴基斯坦海军的潜水艇可能会制造麻烦. 因此印军必须尽全力进行大规模猎潜行动本 (这不正是我们印军近几年和许多国家合作进行的演习项目). 海军清扫巴基斯坦海军和封锁卡拉奇的任务并不比空军压制巴基斯坦空军的任务更艰难. 如果巴基斯坦空军不愿投降, 那么印度可用特种部队去封锁卡拉奇. 但是这很可能诱发巴基斯坦动用核武器, 如果那时候巴基斯坦还有能力的话.

印度能否最终胜利完全取决于她能多快的消灭巴基斯坦力量以便将全部印度军事力量用以于中国对抗, 以便达到与中国僵持的状态使得互相都无法取得优势. 如果在几天内印度能够把主力从于巴基斯坦的对抗中解脱出来(把于巴基斯坦的对抗的任务留给二线战斗机,例如米格-21, 幻影2000, 米格-27, 米格-29)令它们加入已经与中国对抗的空军队伍中, 那么这将阻止中国对印度可能发动的空袭. 虽然中国依旧有数量优势, 但是中国的大批飞机(J10, 苏30系列)都没有能力深入印度进行攻击. 即使中国在中印边境设立了很多基地, 这些基地也能轻易被印度空军摧毁. 而印度同时绝对不能冒险深入中国境内, 因为印度的战略目标是为了最终和中国持平. (注: 在完全瓦解巴基斯坦, 并继续占领中国藏南土地的情况下, 逼迫中国与其打平手实际已经巩固和扩大了印度最大利益).

而在印度洋上将有中国的潜水艇, 同样在南中国海会有印度的潜水艇. 但是两国的航母战斗群都不会在离开各自大陆很远的地方出战, 以避免遭受空袭. 只要印度能在海上,地面和空中制止中国的侵袭, 印度就达到了自己的战略目的 - 那就是逼迫中国与我们讲合, 去运用和平的手段解决问题. (注: 在印度已经用实际行动取得既得利益的情况下, 所谓和平手段当然是其最乐意用来拖延时间的游戏).

在整个的战争中, 唯一真正能够威胁印度的核武将来自于残存的未能被印度消灭巴基斯坦核力量. 但是, 如果真的出现那种情况,巴基斯坦面临的将是被印度完全毁灭. 中国和印度都不会选择用核武, 因为双方都知道那将意味中印都会被毁灭.

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First, we should try to anticipate what would be the type of war. It’s clear we can’t win a war against China, nor can China against India. It’s true today and it will be like that after a decade also. Only casualties in both sides can be compared to get a theoretical winner. Full-fledged war is not affordable for both India and China. Expect limited war on the border (considering the roughness of these area implementation of heavy artillery is difficult for both), exchange of missiles, precise air attacks and PLAN’s attempt to destroy at least some of Indian Navy’s strategic assets in Indian Ocean to keep its oil supply line intact till the International community succeeds to bring two countries on a discussion table. On the other hand war against Pakistan has more possibility to be full-fledged considering their enthusiasm getting China with them and having no Himalaya (except the north)in between India and Pakistan preventing the scope of a massive ground battle.

Pakistan has not declared any no-first-use nuclear policy and there is no chance of that in future. With Pakistan lurking in the west we wont be able to concentrate on China fully and we would be more vulnerable to them than in one-one situation. So it would be logical to go full offensive against Pakistan. India’s priority should be to launch a massive air-attack on Pakistan as soon as war is declared to neutralize its air-force and capability to retaliate with missile attack. It will be a very difficult task and simply not possible if India don’t have long drawn plan and complete knowledge of Pak air-bases, missile lunch pads and other strategically important locations. At least India can ensure intensity of Pak attack to be less and to be dried down within couple of days. In !965 PAF surprised India by attacking air-bases in north India and India was caught off-guard. But later PAF sorties over Indian territory dried down after few days intense air-war due to India’s numerical supremacy. We must try to guess our future inventory (of 2020) of air-crafts. Sukhoi-30 MKI(230),winner of MMRCA(126 -200).LCA Tejas(200). Most Probably few squadron of FGFA and small number of MCA too. Expected with this inventory India would be able to incapacitate Pak air force within few days (and of course we have one advantage that Pakistan doesn’t have the geographical depth). It would be the most crucial part of the war and India’s success will be dependent on it. SoIAFhas to keep itself prepared for any such thing. At no conditions china would be allowed to use Pakistani air-bases. Otherwise it would be a complete disaster.

Most probably China will start with a series of missile attacks while mobiling its force in the border. Even today Chaina is capable of raining missiles in Indian territory. But in next ten years India has the opportunity to build up its missile arsenal to answer China. (We are capable of targeting any part of China with Agni-3). Both the countries have to suffer in the exchanges of missiles. Who has better missile defense network will suffer less. Indian Air force should be little defensive against china until half of front line fighters finish their task in Pakistan. Till then it should try to give coverage Indian force from Chinese air attack.

Indian Navy will have dual task. Preventing PLAN fleet from entering Indian Ocean and finishing off Pakistan navy as fast as possible. PAF will have little chance to provide air coverage to its navy as they would be totally engaged counteringIAF. And Pakistan has no aircraft carrier. With Brahmos (possibly Brahmos-2) and Mig-29, naval LCA operating from an Aircraft carrier( possibly we will have three career fleet by the time) it must not be a difficult task for Navy. But PN submarines will be troublesome. There must be massive hunting for them (are not we practicing Anti-submarine war fare with many countries) Wiping out PN and block Karachi wont be that difficult comparing with the task of nutralising PAF. If India has to force Pak top guns to solve it in discussion table Navy can go for Commando operation in korachi of course after crashing the pak resistance their with the help of air-force. But that will enrage Pakistan to go for a nuclear attack provided they are still capable of that.