2017年9月12日  新世紀

1、什麼"十九大"、"習皇帝"，海外議論乃至西方媒體的話語，都跟着中南海起舞，很倒胃口。今日看北京，倘若忘記了一個總背景，則一切都是荒腔走板，即習近平代表了一個"太子黨"集團，也就是"六四"屠殺後陳雲說的"還是我們自己的子弟接班可靠"。然而即便"子弟"，也是有講究的，所以習的"宰相"王岐山，是"屠城派"僅次於李鵬的二號人物姚依林之快婿；你再看劉源，前國家主席存活下來的孤胤，為習近平整肅掉兩個前軍委付主席，可謂反腐功臣，竟然退休了，由此可見，都是"太子黨"，卻要看你跟"六四"鎮壓的干係。忘掉了這一點，近乎不懂中國三十年政治。這個集團認為，他們當仁不讓是中共政權的合法繼承人，雖然這是一種"血統論"的表述，但是這個表述非常準確，道出了今天北京政權的實質，而西方人完全看不懂。所以說，習的執政目標，不管他使用什麼語言和詞彙，都不僅僅只是"習自己的合法性"、或者"黨的存亡"，而是這個"太子黨"利益集團的合法性與存亡。"十九大"的人事和政策，也只有循此道，才看得出門徑。

2、這個集團認為，江胡兩屆政權，都屬於給他們打工的官僚而已；人們亦可知，江胡也是如此自我定位的，所以他們沒有什麼"主義""思想""三十年"一類不切實際的奢望，更別提跟毛"並列"了，叫他們倆跟鄧小平"並列"也是不敢的。我曾有過一個觀察，說後毛時代出現"平庸化"，中共的"統治人格"，不期然地經由鄧小平的"貓型"、江澤民的"丑角（滑稽）型"，走到胡錦濤的"平庸（唐氏綜合症）型"，是一個蠻好的除魅過程；卻冷不丁，橫檔里殺出一個薄熙來，要當毛澤東傳人，頗鄙夷中南海"無魅力"，罵習近平是"劉阿斗"，於是"打工集團"勢必要收拾這個"小梟雄"，好為指定的"習阿斗"鋪墊登基道路。

3、未曾想，這個"習阿斗"還是要模仿"薄二哥"，難道非如此則不能有別於"打工集團"？習能不能跟毛"並列"，不取決於他自己的欲望，而是要看他駕馭權力和大眾（crowd）的魅力——談到"魅力"，就引入了Max Weber的一套說法，即三種"權威模式"，其中Charisma（個人魅力型統治），是許多學者借來詮釋從希特勒、斯大林直到毛澤東等"梟雄"現象的一種流行看法。然而，習有"個人魅力"嗎？且不論他只有初中文化水平，迄今為止，他將"通商寬農"讀成"通商寬衣"、他的"政治化妝師"為他設計"曬書單"以比附毛澤東"亂翻雜書閒書"的陋習，已成互聯網上的笑料；又者，習居然會有"思想"？在"順口溜"橫行的中國，倒是令人想起一個舊句："中國人問蒙古人，貴國沒有海洋，為何還要組建海軍？"然而"習思想"誕生在"用腳投票"、"用下半身寫作"、"思想就像內褲"的一個時代，其實是很般配的。若為習近平計，他何苦要去當"毛二世"？撇下韋伯理論不說，此舉非但不能為習家光宗耀祖，反而是將自己降低到了毛新宇那一個層級，離痴呆很近了。

《南華早報》來問我看法，只好順便跟着說兩句唱衰的吧。

————————

Dear Prof 蘇曉康,

This is to request your comment on Chinese politics, from Cary Huang, a senior writer with South China Morning Post. You can choose use English or Chinese.
A recent string of references in official Chinese media to "Xi Jinping Thought" suggests that Beijing is preparing to enshrine the president's name alongside Mao Zedong's in the Communist Party charter when the party holds its twice-a-decade congress this autumn. I am writing a lengthy news analysis (full-page for print and bigger story online) on this subject and would like to invite you, an expert in this area, to give your opinion on it.

The question I would like you to give interpretation and comment include:

1. The Party Constitution states: "Communist Party of China takes Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, the important thought of Three Represents and the Scientific Outlook on Development as its guide to action."

Then what it would mean for "Xi's Thought" to be added to this statement, making Xi paralleling Mao's status?

2. Is it also prepared for Xi to stay on power after 2022, making him a life long leader as Mao?

3. Does it mark China enters into what is called "Xi Jinping's era" as party propagandists called for the advent of a new "30 years", after Mao's 30 years; Deng, Jiang and Hu's 30 years?

4. Is it just for Xi's personal legitimacy, or also for the Party's survival, as the party is trying to rebuild its ideology and theory following the collapse of its orthodoxy ideology?.

5. What consequences and reactions that "XJP Thought" would have brought about, as some said Xh has tried to break up two Dengist principles of rules: "corrective leadership" and "pragmatism", replacing Mao's strongman politics and personality cult and leftism

6. What reactions would be from within the establishment, the general public and the outside world?

7. What it would affect China's future development, a change of Deng's reformist path of development, a revival of Maoist leftism, or some might say the Great Leap Backward of China's ideology?

8. The implications on China's foreign policy.

You can choose to answer any of above questions, or make your own comment on the topic beyond my question.

Best regard

Cary Huang,

A senior writer and columnist with South China Morning Post