【魚論】這是在谷歌翻譯的基礎上修改、校正的翻譯稿。省了我很多翻譯的時間，湊合着看一下吧。《經濟學人》的網站沒有中文版，況且，如果沒有註冊讀者，該網站每天只允許你看一篇文章的詳細內容。

2019年的世界

為什麼習近平擔心2019年

幾個重要的紀念日即將出現。共產黨很緊張

2018年12月29日

三十年前，隨着1989年的臨近，政治風暴雲聚集在中國。領導層內部出現了經濟改革有多遠和多快的分歧。在蘇聯自由化領導人米哈伊爾·戈爾巴喬夫的啟發下，中國的一些人敢於暗示他們自己的國家也應該放鬆。來年的日曆包括中國近代史上的政治事件大周年。許多知識分子正興奮地等待着這些日期，希望這些場合能夠為他們提供一個藉口來表達他們對黨的執政記錄的不滿。

2019年的前期遠沒有那麼熱情。但再一次，周年紀念日迫在眉睫。共產黨很緊張。

這可能看起來很奇怪。自1989年以來，中國在財富和影響力方面取得了巨大成就 該黨堅定地掌權。然而，安全部隊將處於完全警戒狀態。審查員將全天候工作，以清除任何未經批準的周年紀念參考。這並不容易：以9結尾的年代周年紀念清單已經增長，並且具有敏感的黨內涵。最重要的是1989年民主抗議活動的血腥鎮壓日期，這是三十年前那種令人興奮的情緒的高潮。

與1989年一樣，審查機構要確保政治一致性並不容易。這是因為一些紀念日是黨本身喜歡紀念的紀念日，所以它不能簡單地禁止所有提及它們。以五四為例。2019年那一天將是學生運動誕生100周年，這一運動導致該黨於1921年成立 - 當時，為了慶祝黨。但是在1989年，五四運動70周年對天安門廣場的抗議者來說是一個巨大的啟發。他們形容自己，而不是黨，是1919年學生愛國和支持改革精神的真正傳承者。今天幾乎沒有跡象表明校園動盪。但中國領導人知道，情緒可能變幻莫測。1988年，中國持不同政見者感嘆學生們似乎對打麻將比對待政治更感興趣。

中華人民共和國成立10月1日70周年將是黨和公眾以不同方式解讀的另一個場合。早在1989年，着名的中國持不同政見者（2012年流亡世界）的方力智寫道，5月4日和10月1日那一年的紀念日將成為“中國希望和絕望的雄辯象徵”，表明“天真的誠意” “1949年共產黨統治初期的中國人民被”背叛“了。現在很少有中國人會這麼說。許多人對他們國家日益增長的國際影響感到自豪。但在少數民族聚居的地區，10月1日將不再是歡呼的場合。

西藏和新疆的安全將非常激烈，以防止那些追求中國統治的人表達他們的不滿。在1959年起義周年引發騷亂促使達賴喇嘛逃往印度之後，西藏首府拉薩實施戒嚴將是3月。預計2019年西藏領導人流亡60周年將變得緊張。

多年生偏執狂

像往常一樣，審查機構幾乎可以清除任何提及天安門廣場抗議活動的事件，這次抗議活動將於6月4日舉行。中國領導人習近平沒有興趣恢復對政權威脅的任何記憶。對於他在世界舞台上的所有招搖，習近平在家中行事似乎黨仍然處於危險之中。他逮捕了許多律師，非政府工作人員和維權人士，主持了對民間社會的全面鎮壓。推翻其他獨裁政權的“顏色革命”似乎困擾着他。他沒有表現出放鬆1999年7月發起的殘酷運動的意願，以消滅法輪功，這是一個曾經擁有數百萬粉絲的准佛教派。

特別是在一年如此響亮的歷史迴響中，習近平將在2019年無所作為地放鬆他的副控制。相反，隨着與美國的貿易戰肆虐，他將加倍努力，以防止在國內騷亂。他很清楚中國的持不同政見者長期以來一直利用愛國主義作為攻擊企業的外衣，正如抗議者在1919年和1989年所做的那樣。因此，黨將保持警惕，以免公眾對美國的憤怒轉向習近平和黨本身。

本文出現在“2019年的世界”中，這是我們關於未來一年的年度版本。在worldin2019.economist.com上查看更多  信息

【原文鏈接】https://www.economist.com/the-world-in/2018/12/29/why-xi-jinping-is-worried-about-2019

The World in 2019

Why Xi Jinping is worried about 2019

Several important anniversaries loom. The Communist Party is nervous

Dec 29th 2018

THIRTY YEARS ago, as 1989 approached, political storm-clouds were gathering over China. Bitter divisions had emerged within the leadership over how far and how fast to pursue economic reform. Inspired by the Soviet Union’s liberalising leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, some people in China were daring to suggest that their own country should loosen up, too. The calendar for the coming year included big anniversaries of political events in China’s modern history. Many intellectuals were awaiting those dates with excitement, hoping the occasions would provide them with a pretext to air their grievances about the party’s record in power.

The run-up to 2019 is far less febrile. But once again, anniversaries loom. The Communist Party is nervous.

This may seem odd. Since 1989 China has grown enormously in wealth and influence. The party is firmly in charge. Yet the security forces will be on full alert. Censors will work round the clock to scrub any unapproved references to the anniversaries. That will not be easy: the list of anniversaries that fall in years ending with 9, and that have sensitive connotations for the party, has grown. At its top is the date of the bloody suppression of the pro-democracy protests in 1989 that were the culmination of that heady mood three decades ago.

As in 1989, it will not be easy for the censors to ensure political conformity. That is because some of the anniversaries are ones that the party itself likes to commemorate, so it cannot simply ban all mentions of them. Take May Fourth. That day in 2019 will mark 100 years since the student movement that led to the party’s founding in 1921—much, then, for the party to celebrate. But in 1989 the 70th anniversary of the May Fourth Movement was a huge inspiration to the protesters in Tiananmen Square. They described themselves, not the party, as the true inheritors of the patriotic and pro-reform spirit of the students in 1919. There is little sign of campus unrest today. But China’s leaders know that moods can be fickle. In 1988 Chinese dissidents lamented that students seemed more interested in playing mah-jong than in politics. How wrong they were.

The 70th anniversary on October 1st of the founding of the People’s Republic will be another occasion that the party and the public could interpret in different ways. Early in 1989 Fang Lizhi, a prominent Chinese dissident (who died in exile in 2012), wrote that the anniversaries that year on May 4th and October 1st would be “eloquent symbols of China’s hope and despair” that would show how the “naive sincerity” of Chinese people at the start of Communist rule in 1949 had been “betrayed”. Few Chinese would put it so starkly now. Many express pride in their country’s growing international clout. But in regions populated by ethnic minorities, October 1st will be less of an occasion for cheer.

Security will be intense across Tibet and Xinjiang to prevent those who chafe at Chinese rule from expressing their discontent. In March it will be 30 years since the imposition of martial law in the Tibetan capital, Lhasa, after riots triggered by the anniversary of the uprising in 1959 that prompted the Dalai Lama to flee to India. Expect the 60th anniversary in 2019 of the Tibetan leader’s exile to be tense.

Perennial paranoia

As usual, censors will erase almost any mention of the Tiananmen Square protests, the 30th anniversary of the crushing of which falls on June 4th. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has shown no interest in reviving any memories of that regime-threatening episode. For all his swagger on the world stage, Mr Xi acts at home as if the party is still in danger. He has presided over a sweeping clampdown on civil society with the arrests of many lawyers, ngo workers and rights activists. “Colour revolutions” that have toppled other authoritarian regimes appear to haunt him. He has shown no inclination to ease the brutal campaign, launched in July 1999, to eradicate Falun Gong, a quasi-Buddhist sect that once had millions of followers. Attempts to mark this date by the faith’s diehard adherents in China (and supporters abroad) will add to Mr Xi’s anniversary woes.

Especially in a year so resounding with historical echoes, Mr Xi will do nothing in 2019 to relax his vice-like controls. Instead, as a trade war rages with America, he will redouble his efforts to prevent unrest at home. He well knows that dissidents in China have long used patriotism as a cloak for attacking the establishment, as protesters did in both 1919 and 1989. So the party will be on guard lest public anger with America turn against Mr Xi and the party itself.

This article appears in “The World in 2019”, our annual edition that looks at the year ahead. See more at worldin2019.economist.com