川普總統外交七板斧

隨意生活

2020年1日13日

昨天，《Business Insider 》刊登署名文章，題為

“Trump's blundering attempts to strong arm Iran follow the same pattern as the China trade-war mess”，頗有意思。

文章描述川普處理外交事務（尤其是中國、伊朗事物）的模式（pattern ），有如下七個步驟，姑且稱為“七板斧”。

第一板：發現問題

Step 1: There is a legitimate problem.

第二板：挑起爭鬥，企圖解決問題

Step 2: Trump starts a fight to address the problem. In China's case, the trade war. In Iran's case, his "maximum pressure" campaign of economic sanctions.

第三板：好鬥口水戰升級

Step 3: As the fight goes on, Trump's language becomes increasingly bellicose, and so does his opponent's.

第四版：針鋒相對，關繫緊張化

Step 4: A tit-for-tat ratcheting-up of tensions ensues, with parties threatening or engaging in aggressive action.

第五板：威脅恐嚇走極端，對手卻相對冷靜

Step 5: Trump makes threats or engages in extremely aggressive action, and his opponent seems to stand down from doing anything rash.

第六板：緊張局勢緩解，但雙邊關係卻惡化，相互間的善意與信任喪失殆盡

Step 6: Tensions cool, but the relationship between Trump and his opponent, and their constituents, sours. Any goodwill is gone. Trust dissipates.

第七板：前四板無效，返回第一板。

Step 7: Return to Step 1.

如此周而復始，惡性循環，問題不但沒解決，由於關係惡化，顯得更加棘手。

文章雖以美中貿易戰與伊朗事務為例，川普總統這七板斧模式也適用於北韓問題。雖然川普時而要喝自己的核按鈕大，時而與金小三把酒言歡，折騰了幾年，北朝鮮的核問題卻未得到一絲一毫的解決。