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花街開始放風還是媒體炒做 美聯儲干預措施可導致“閃電崩盤”?
送交者: 荷塘曉月 2010年10月12日16:08:19 於 [股市財經] 發送悄悄話

花街開始放風了還是僅僅媒體炒做?

分析師稱美聯儲干預措施可能導致“閃電崩盤”

2010年10月11日 21:05

[世華財訊]分析師稱美聯儲干預措施可能導致"閃電崩盤",因其給市場帶來干擾、無法令實體經濟真正受益,並對美元價值造成了破壞。

綜合媒體10月11日報道,嘉誠資本(Cazenove Capital)分析師格里菲斯(Robin Griffiths)表示,由於美聯儲採取的流動性提振措施,股票市場有再次“閃電崩盤(flash crash)”的風險。

格里菲斯稱,美聯儲近期採取的措施並未令他獲得任何信心。實際上,他認為市場未來可能會再次談論閃電崩盤問題。

根據格里菲斯的說法,美元走弱意味着歐洲投資者應對買入美元資產持謹慎態度,並且過去10年投資者本應明確這一點。他表示,假若投資者在過去10年的任何階段買入了美元資產,目前其資產價值已經下降了54%。

格里菲斯稱,美聯儲用來控制金融體系短期貨幣供給的永久性公開市場操作(Permanent Open Market Operations,POMOs)正在干擾正常市場。

美聯儲已經暗示其願意向系統注入更多流動性,以進一步刺激經濟增長,並同時將位於創記錄低點的利率再延長一段時間。

格里菲斯表示,這種情況已經發生過了,那就是2007年。在2007年,市場於9月份大幅上揚15%,延續至10月16日,隨後發生了崩盤,摧毀了部分全球規模最大的金融機構。他認為美聯儲所採取的流動性措施正冒着重演上述毀滅性時期的風險。

越來越多的市場觀察員已經暗示,美聯儲的量化寬鬆舉措不會令實體經濟受益。Sarasin & Partners的CIO兼管理合伙人Guy Monson表示,流動性令投資市場膨脹,但幾乎不會帶來其他益處。Old Broad Street Research投資主管Peter Toogood則表示,更多的流動性並不能提振銀行借款,而後者能夠改善綜合經濟形勢。

格里菲斯還指出,通過令美元貶值,公開市場操作已經提振了美元計價資產類別,例如標準普爾500指數與黃金。因為美元相對價值的下降,此類市場似乎正在創造新的史上高點,但事實並非只是如此。

假若通過其他貨幣來計算標準普爾指數,例如歐元,該指數自9月9日升至頂峰之後一直處於下降趨勢。格里菲斯稱,現在的情況是這樣的:美聯儲一邊推動股票市場走高,一邊以更快的速度破壞美元;因此市場無法攀升。
 
格里菲斯還表示,儘管黃金最近數周錄入了創記錄的美元價格新高,假若根據其他貨幣進行計算,黃金實際上並未升至新高,並且市場過度買入黃金,黃金因此可能進入整合期。

    Van Eck International Gold Fund的投資經歷Joe Foster則表示,黃金價格大幅上揚導致眾多投資者入市,但市場可能不會在毫無阻礙的情況下延續上揚趨勢。他認為黃金在未來兩年內將升至1,700美元/盎司,但短期內可能下挫。
 
與此同時,除美國的新興市場資產以外,美聯儲向市場注入的流動性同樣有一部分意外受益者,比如印度的Sensex指數便因此獲得了提振。

(王洋 編譯)
Fed Intervention Could Lead to 'Flash Crash': Strategist
 
Published: Monday, 11 Oct 2010
 
By: Robin Knight
CNBC Associate Web Producer

The stock market is at risk of another flash crash because of the Federal Reserve's liquidity-boosting measures, Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, told CNBC Monday.

"I'm not gaining any confidence from what the Fed has been doing here. I actually think you're going to be talking about a flash cash — they've set it up, we're vulnerable to another one," Griffiths said.

Dollar weakness means that European investors should be cautious of buying into dollar assets and should have been clear for the past decade, according to Griffiths.

"If we had at any stage in the last ten years bought America, we would be down 54 percent at this moment. It really is for losers," he said.

The Fed's Permanent Open Market Operations POMOs, which control the supply of short-term money into the financial system, are distorting the normal market seasonality, according to Griffiths.

The central bank has signaled its willingness to pump more money into the system in a bid to further stimulate growth, in addition to keeping interest rates at a record low for an extended period.

"This has happened before and you'll easily remember the last time this has happened because it was 2007. In 2007 the market rallied 15 percent in September, carried on to the 16th of October and then crashed, wiping out some of the world's largest financial institutions," he said.

Griffiths thinks that current liquidity measures from the central bank are risking a re-run of that devastating period.

A growing number of market watchers have suggested that the Fed's quantitative easing moves won't benefit the actual economy. Guy Monson, managing partner & CIO of Sarasin & Partners, told CNBC that the liquidity is inflating investment markets, but giving little other benefit.

Peter Toogood, head of investment at Old Broad Street Research, said that more liquidity isn't helping to boost bank lending, which could improve general economic conditions.

Gold Record Highs?

Griffiths also pointed out that the open market operations had boosted dollar-denominated assets classes, such as the S&P 500 cnbc_comboQuoteMove('popup_.SPX_ID0ELIAC15839609'); [.SPX  1169.77    4.45  (+0.38%)   ] cnbc_quoteComponent_init_getData(".SPX","WSODQ_COMPONENT_.SPX_ID0ELIAC15839609","WSODQ","true","ID0ELIAC15839609","off","false","inLineQuote"); and gold cnbc_comboQuoteMove('popup_XAU=X_ID0ESNAC15839609'); [XAU=X  1351.8    2.20  (+0.16%) , by reducing the value of the greenback. Because of the falling relative value of the dollar, such markets appeared to be making new all-time highs, but this was not always the case.

If the S&P were to be calculated in another currency such as the euro, then the index actually peaked on the 9th of September and has been in a downtrend ever since, he said.

"What's happening is the Fed is juicing its (stock) market up, but it's destroying the dollar at a quicker rate; the market can't rise," Griffiths said.

Gold is in fact not at a new high if calculated in other currencies, despite posting record dollar price tags in recent weeks, and is overbought and could be due for a period of consolidation, he added.

The strong rally in gold prices has led many investors to jump into the precious metal, but the market may not continue upwards without problems. Joe Foster, portfolio manager at Van Eck International Gold Fund, told CNBC that gold will reach $1,700 within 2 years, but could fall in the short term.

Meanwhile, the Fed's liquidity is having some unintended beneficiaries outside of the U.S. Emerging market assets, such as India's Sensex index, are getting a boost from the Fed's liquidity.

 
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