離2012結束還有短短的6天。從最新的進展看，美國幾乎沒有懸念的會墜下所謂的“財政懸崖”（Fisical　Cliff），因為美國會和總統之間能在年底前達成協議的可能性微乎其微。

從“財政懸崖”這個概念被提起到現在已經一年多了，真正被華爾街當會事也有幾個月了。雖然近幾個月華爾街幾乎是不停的在喊“財政懸崖”對經濟和股市的危害有多嚴重，但市場似乎並不相信會真的發生。從今天的股市看，即便標普掉了5點多，仍在1421點，距今年的最高點1476點僅一步之遙。

為什麼市場會不相信美國真的會墜崖呢？恐怕還要從上個月的大選說起。

雖然在大選前，“財政懸崖”就喊得震天響，但沒有人會相信解決方案會在大選前有任何結論。況且華爾街把羅姆尼當自己的同志，內心裡希望，甚至相信老羅能贏過奧巴馬，這可以從本次大選華爾街給老羅捐了多少競選經費可見一斑。從選前的幾個月看，共和黨在選後將在參，眾兩院都有斬獲，增加席位，甚至囊括參眾兩院的多數席位，如果羅姆尼再能當選，那麼選後解決“財政懸崖”的方案將會是一個對華爾街，對富人更有利的方案，因為如果國會中的民主黨如果不能在年前向共和黨更多妥協的話，等明年新任國會開始，民主黨的力量將更加薄弱，再加上總統又是羅姆尼，結果會離民主黨想要的離得更遠。

誰想人算不如天算，大選結果不但讓羅姆尼傻眼，共和黨也呆了，不但沒能在參，眾兩院增加席位，反倒席位減少了。不但如此，選舉的結果似乎印證了選民對國會中兩黨，特別是共和黨為一黨之利而不作為大有意見。而對這點的認知，就為後面“財政懸崖”談判的一波三折做好了鋪墊。

不出所料，大選剛剛降下帷幕，解決“財政懸崖”成了重中之重，迫在眉睫要解決的頭等大事，因為如果在2012的最後一捋夕陽消失在地平線以下開始還沒有解決的方案，那麼小布什對富人的減稅和經濟危機以來所施行的對所有人的減稅都將過期，美國全民的稅負都將大幅增加，這對一個個人消費占GDP70%以上的國家的經濟的打擊將堪比核彈，人們將不得不為交得上所得稅而勒緊褲帶，減衣縮食。

然而這僅是“財政懸崖” 的一部分，另外的破壞力來自美國會自埋的定時炸彈，即2011年聯邦債頂之爭時通過的法案，如在2012年底不能達成一個減少赤字的方案，將在2013年1月1日起自動啟動減少6千億聯邦財政預算，其中很大部分是對軍費的減少。從推動美國經濟的動力來講，一是消費者消費，政府的花銷，包括巨額的聯邦政府的預算花銷也不可小看。於是一旦消費者消費和聯邦政府的預算花銷從同一天開始突然減少，其對美國經濟的打擊便可想而知了。

大選的結果，共和黨被打懵了，對如果打解決“財政懸崖”亂了方寸，於是第一步即以退為進，以眾院發言人出面擺出姿態，要一改前面4年和奧巴馬全面不合作的態度，願意接受小奧的引領，大家通力合作，在聖誕節前拆掉“財政懸崖”這顆炸彈。於是華爾街普遍的解讀是雙方雖然免不了會做做戲，互相你來我往幾個回合的討價還價，但會象去年的債頂之爭大戲般在最後一分鐘達成協議，有驚無險，因為兩黨都沒有膽量因固執己見而讓美國掉下財政懸崖。於是市場乾脆跳過有驚那段，直接一路高歌。

事情一開始的發展，的確有如華爾街預測的，雙方先拿出自己的最初價，奧巴馬要價給年收入個人20萬，家庭收入25萬以下的98%美國家庭繼續減稅，而代表眾院共和黨出面談判的議長博納也喊出己方的價碼，繼續給所有人（100%）的布什減稅，但在免稅條款上做文章，以增加稅收收入。後雙方各退一步，奧巴馬願意接受40萬年收入以上的人加稅，而博納也首次打破堅決不加稅的共和黨傳統立場，接受給年收百萬的人加稅。於是很多人相信，雙方差距並不大，最後再各退一步，很可能和解在給年收入50萬以上家庭加稅，於是大家皆大歡喜，高高興興過聖誕，歡歡喜喜過新年。

然而，上周四，形勢突然急轉直下，博納的“B計劃”在眾院流產，也使美國墜下財政懸崖成為定局。為什麼這麼說？

解決“財政懸崖”的方案中，最主要的關乎成敗的一條是對富人的增稅。按奧巴馬幾年來一直的主張，所謂的富人是年收入25萬以上的家庭（個人收入20萬）。而增稅，對共和黨，特別是立場更強硬的茶黨來講，那是絕對不能接受的。所以，當博納提出僅為年入100萬的人增稅方案時，股市變得極為興奮，因為這意味着共和黨打死不增稅的立場有了鬆動，接下來的就只是找到一個平衡點，即那個定義富人的收入點便大功告成了。而博納為了加強共和黨談判的籌碼，拋出來了一個所謂“Plan B”，即便不能就一攬子計劃達成協議，咱先達成個給99。92%的人減稅的協議，其它的咱們慢慢來。如果民主黨否定了“Plan B”，則共和黨將不會背負造成“財政懸崖”的責任。

然而，出乎博納的意料，共和黨內的堅決不增稅勢力不肯讓步，致使“Plan B”腰折。同時，更重要的是，由此揭示出，共和黨內並未因大選失敗而要放棄“打死不增稅”的立場達成共識。如果共和黨眾議員有足夠多的人數不接受任何的增稅方案，而且這種狀況持續一天，那麼美國跌入“財政懸崖”的可能就存在一天。現在距年底只剩下不到6天，有多大的可能那些不接受任何的增稅方案的眾議員的人數，可以在這不到6天裡減少到足以讓一個包括贈稅條款的方案能夠被接受呢？關鍵的問題就是，在什麼情況下才能讓那些將“永不增稅”當成誓言的共和黨議員們放棄誓言？

對很多人來講，答案是：永遠不！

對剩下的，或許是：在合適的條件下。

那麼在什麼條件下才能使足夠多的共和黨議員們放棄“永不增稅”的立場呢？

永遠自我感覺良好的華爾街的設想，要想讓那些共和黨議員們放棄“永不增稅”的立場，那麼股市就必須有災難性的大崩潰。直至今日，股市仍表現平穩，股價接近今年的高位，那麼期望年內股市給政治家造成足夠壓力的希望基本不存在了。

其它可能的壓力是什麼呢？經濟重新滑入衰退。

但經濟重新滑入衰退的假設條件是如果美國真的墜下“財政懸崖”。就目前情況來看，僅僅經濟重新滑入衰退的可能性並未能對政治家們造成多大的壓力。要真正產生壓力，恐怕要等噩耗成真的時候。這也就決定了，美國墜下“財政懸崖”幾無懸念。

對於關心股市的人來講，在美國墜下“財政懸崖”幾無懸念的判斷下，股市會有什麼樣的表現呢？

從華爾街的判斷來講，有足夠的人早已看到墜下“財政懸崖”是“必須的”（東北話）。關鍵是，解決方案會在墜下多久後達成。很多人的預判是差不多一個月，這裡面就包括股神巴菲特。

對金融界來講，危險和不確定性幾乎是同義詞。華爾街的普遍認知是，不確定性有兩種，即可知的不確定性（KNOWN　UNKNOWN）和不可知的不確定性（UNKNOWN　UNKNOWN）。可知的不確定性並不會對股市造成股災。能造成股災的必然是不可知的不確定性。

如果相信“財政懸崖”的解決方案會在墜下的一個月內達成，於是在新年的頭一個月內，市場怕都會籠罩在以“可知的不確定性”為主的心境下，也因此，股市怕也不會災難性的崩盤。但反過來，如果華爾街是對的，那麼股市如果不崩盤，就不會產生足夠的壓力讓民主，共和兩黨達成協議，這幾乎是一個悖論。於是那種寄希望於新年後的一個月內達成協議怕也要落空，真正的解決方案將會是在市場上多數人都對達成協議放棄了希望以後。


附：
 Seven Ways the 'Fiscal Cliff' Crisis Could End

Published: Friday, 21 Dec 2012 | 2:19 PM ET    Twitter  


 Jewel Samad | AFP | Getty Images
House Speaker John Boehner, President Obama and Sen. Harry Reid.So what now? The House rejection of a bill to raise taxes on just 0.18 percent of Americans -- those making more than $1 million a year -- has raised questions about the Republican-led chamber's ability to approve any plan to avert the looming "fiscal cliff."

Unless President Barack Obama and Congress can forge a deal during the Christmas and New Year's holidays, the largest economy in the world could be thrust back into a recession because of the steep tax increases and spending cuts that are due to begin in January.

The threat of across-the-board government spending cuts and tax increases -- about $600 billion worth -- was intended to shock Democrats and House Republicans into moving past their many differences to approve a plan that would bring tax relief to most Americans and curb runaway federal spending.

For weeks, Obama and House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, have struggled to find a compromise.

After a glimmer of hope that a deal was close, Boehner -- apparently under pressure from anti-tax House Republicans aligned with the conservative Tea Party -- pressed the "pause" button on negotiations. He then tried to push a backup plan through the House late Thursday, only to see his fellow Republicans kill it.

While the House is controlled by the Republicans, the Senate is controlled by Obama's fellow Democrats.

Where do Obama and Congress go from here? Here are some possible scenarios.

Play VideoWhat Happens Next
The very latest on fiscal cliff talks, with CNBC's John Harwood, Steve Liesman & Larry Kudlow.1. Obama and Boehner return to secret negotiations.

Before Boehner started touting his failed "Plan B" to boost taxes on those who make more than $1 million, he and Obama were moving closer together on a plan to raise taxes on certain high-income Americans and cut spending. They could pick up where they left off and quickly cut a deal to bridge the gap. (Read More: Here's How Close Boehner and Obama Are.)

But a compromise with possibly $1 trillion in new taxes and $1 trillion in new, long-term spending cuts could be a tough sell for both Republicans and Democrats in Congress.

Boehner would have to sell enough Republicans on the idea of tax increases. Obama, meanwhile, would have to get Democrats in Congress to back cuts to some social safety net programs such as Social Security pensions and Medicare and Medicaid health insurance for the elderly and poor. House Republicans appear to be the tougher sell.

2. A huge drop in the stock market sends a loud message to Washington politicians to stop arguing and cut a quick but meaningful deal.

That is what happened in late September 2008, after Congress rejected a massive financial bailout package despite warnings by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson of an economic collapse if the bill failed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 700 points and Congress quickly reversed course, approving the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program just days later.

The "fiscal cliff" may not be as dramatic a situation, but the tax increases and cuts in federal spending could deal a stiff blow to the economy.

3. No deal happens in the dwindling days of 2012 and the government jumps off the fiscal cliff -- at least temporarily.

On Jan. 1, income taxes would go up on just about everyone. During the first week of January, Congress could scramble and get a quick deal on taxes and the $109 billion in automatic spending cuts that most lawmakers want to avoid.

Why could they reach a deal in January, if they fail in December?

The reason would be that once taxes go up, it would be easier to allow a few of those increases to remain in place -- mostly on the wealthy -- and repeal those that would hit middle- and lower-income taxpayers.

Such a scenario would mean that no member of Congress technically would have to vote for a tax increase on anyone -- taxes would have risen automatically, and the only votes would be to decrease tax rates for most Americans back to their 2012 levels.

4. No deal occurs for another six weeks or so.

If Congress does not raise the nation's debt limit, by mid-February, the Treasury Department likely would exhaust its ability to borrow. That would put the nation at risk of defaulting on its debt.

Republicans have withheld their approval of the debt-limit increase as leverage to try to get the kind of "fiscal cliff" solution they want: Fewer increases in spending and taxes, and more cuts to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

This is the strategy they employed in mid-2011 during the last fight over the debt limit, which is about $16.4 trillion.

Republicans wrung spending cuts out of Democrats in return for new borrowing authority, but paid a political price. Global financial markets were rocked by the long uncertainty brought on by the standoff in Congress, one ratings agency downgraded U.S. credit standing and Republicans saw their public approval ratings sink.

5. Boehner decides on a gutsy move: Call a House vote on a bill that would raise tax rates for families with net annual incomes above $250,000, exactly what Obama has sought.

The plan could pass the House with strong Democratic support and some Republican votes. As soon as it passed, the House likely would leave town for the rest of the year without addressing other Obama priorities, such as increasing the government's debt limit.

6. A partial deal is struck at any point.

Congress could pass a plan that would put off most of the income tax increases that are due in January, or extend some other expiring tax breaks -- namely one to prevent middle-class taxpayers from being subject to higher tax rates aimed at the wealthy under the alternative minimum tax.

7. Stock markets do not tank and Washington politicians conclude that the "fiscal cliff" is not such a bad thing.

Under this scenario, Congress and the White House could continue sniping at each other throughout 2013 and 2014 as they try to revamp tax policy and impose long-term spending cuts.