【古風按】Kyle Bass 前不久在2012年AmerCatalyst會議的主題演講（http://youtu.be/JUc8-GUC1hY）里說出了如下的話：

We sit today at the world's largest peacetime accumulation of debt in world history…
…You know how this ends right?
This ends through war…
…I don't know who's going to fight who, but I'm fairly certain in the next few years you will see wars erupt, and not just small ones…

在2011年12月29日歲末的一篇有關中國北斗資訊的最後，古風留下了如下的按語：

2011年的確是個值得大書特書的一年。在西方一片衰敗情景中，中國繼續保持着高速發展的健康勢頭。中國的北斗趕在這個歲末開始了試運行，瞄準的其實不是什麼商業上的效益，而是對美國豎起了金箍棒，明確地昭示：處於經濟崩潰邊緣的美國不要把戰爭的禍水引入中國周遭的亞洲區域。如果發生中美間的直接或間接熱戰，美國現在與中國基本上處於同一技術水平之上，到時候美國及其嘍囉們就會吃不了兜着走了。在另一方面，中國開始北斗的試運行正好跟北韓的領袖金正日逝世、日本的新任首相野田佳彥訪華、美國大力顛覆敘利亞、伊朗與俄國，美國大張旗鼓推動TPP，美國高調屯兵澳大利亞，美歐債務危機進一步惡化，歐元瀕臨瓦解，美國預算再陷僵局，美歐經濟毫無起色，西方平民示威暴亂日益嚴重等諸多重大國際事件都湊到了一起，這難道僅僅是個巧合嗎？如果仔細把握世界局勢的脈絡，就會發現人類歷史基本上沿着如下的劇本在演繹：一強稱霸→經濟軍事競爭→列強爭霸→貨幣戰爭→貿易戰爭→肉體戰爭→熱戰決出新霸主→新的輪迴開始。自從2007/08年西方爆發金融危機以來，整整4年過去了，整個世界於2010年進入了全球貨幣戰爭的階段，現在已經處於全球貿易戰爭的臨界點，2012年將是人類走向長久和平還是第三次世界大戰的關鍵一年。中國趕在2011年末把北斗投入試運行、在2012年底讓北斗達到美國GPS同樣的精度，的確不是僅僅在從事民用商業競爭而已。在2011年歲末，古風許下新年願望：祈禱中國在軍事與經濟上能夠繼續快速發展，徹底打消西方非和平勢力的戰爭圖謀，給全世界人民帶來和平繁榮！

到2012年4月22日，在一篇介紹和總結《時輪》的短文中，古風留下了如下的文字：

對於大家理解現在和未來15-20年將要發生的一切都會大有助益。比如，當您讀到《時輪三部曲》的第三部末尾時就會看到文章的作者預計：在未來的15年內中美間會爆發世界大戰。再比如《時輪三部曲》的第一部和前傳都明確地說明：自從2008年以來，美國已經進入時輪的第四個階段——全面危機。從1773年以來，美國已經經歷過了三次“全面危機”，每一次全面危機都伴隨着整個社會的全面戰爭：

American Revolution (1773–1794)，美國獨立戰爭
Civil War (1860–1865)，美國南北內戰（統一戰爭）
Great Depression & World War II (1929–1946)，大蕭條及二戰
Millenial Crisis (2008–????)，中美間的全面戰爭或美國分裂戰爭（後者為古風個人預言）

如果中國在習李十年後的下一代最高領導層沒有足夠的智慧與忍辱力，中美間的全面戰爭就極有可能在10-15年內發生；如果中國的最高領導層不陪着美國一同毀滅，那麼美國國內就會發生自毀的分裂戰爭。第一種選擇將是整個人類文明的末日，第二種選擇將是美聯邦的謝幕show。可是，不論哪一種結局在美國的華人都完了。網友們要記住二戰時日裔美國人和猶太裔德國人的遭遇哦。

同時，古風個人預計5年內，金融超級炸彈（那700萬億的衍生壞賬）就會被引爆了。

最後，古風祝願各位網友能夠成功度過這一面臨整個人類文明的劫難！

古風在2012年10月21日給網友“mzl9876”的回覆中寫到：

在下估計：不到亡國，中國絕不會跟日本開戰；即便日本人登（釣魚）島，中國也不會打起來。現在還不是打的時候，就如同快開的水，雖然很響，可是還沒有到最後即將爆開的階段（水真要開之前的一段極短的時間，水會突然由很響變得不響了）。您回去現煮一壺水，看看在下描述得是否準確。哈哈……

在戰略上講，現在開戰，就讓美、日、歐有了共同的敵人，那麼他們就會合力對中國落井下石，甚至連俄國都靠不住。中國目前最好就是輿論上討伐、軍事上演習、戰備上快馬加鞭、經濟上完成產業轉移和升級。只要再忍個五年，打或不打都成世界霸主了。

古風在2012年10月29日給網友“mzl9876”的回覆中寫到：

預計習上台後，會大力推動官員的財產公開制度，打擊貪腐現象，同時也會加大緩和貧富差距的力度。中國的下一個5年將會逐漸走上和諧之路，為10年後穩健地成為全球霸主打下堅實的基礎。

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/they-are-getting-ready-no-obvious-reason-for-why-chinese-rice-stockpiles-jumped-400-massive-boosts-in-dry-milk-iron-ore-precious-metals-imports_01092013

China is Getting Ready for the Incoming World War
by Mac Slavo, SHTFplan.com, 9 January 2013

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/01/the-war-on-terror-spreads-to-africa-u-s-sending-troops-to-35-african-nations.html

In Africa US is Already Fighting with China
by Washington’s Blog, 12 January 2013

America Sets Its Sights On Controlling African Resources … And Reducing Chinese Influence

The U.S. is sending troops to 35 African nations under the guise of fighting Al Qaeda and related terrorists.

Democracy Now notes:

U.S. Army teams will be deploying to as many as 35 African countries early next year for training programs and other operations as part of an increased Pentagon role in Africa. The move would see small teams of U.S. troops dispatched to countries with groups allegedly linked to al-Qaeda, such as Libya, Sudan, Algeria and Niger. The teams are from a U.S. brigade that has the capability to use drones for military operations in Africa if granted permission. The deployment could also potentially lay the groundwork for future U.S. military intervention in Africa.

NPR reports:

[A special American brigade] will be able to take part in nearly 100 separate training and military exercises next year, in nearly three dozen African countries

Glenn Ford writes:

The 2nd Brigade is scheduled to hold more than 100 military exercises in 35 countries, most of which have no al-Qaida presence. So, although there is no doubt that the U.S. will be deeply involved in the impending military operation in Mali, the 2nd Brigade’s deployment is a much larger assignment, aimed at making all of Africa a theater of U.S. military operations. The situation in Mali is simply a convenient, after-the-fact rationale for a long-planned expansion of the U.S. military footprint in Africa.

Timothy Alexander Guzman argues:

AFRICOM’s [the U.S. military's Africa command] goal is to eliminate China and other countries influence in the region. Africa’s natural resources is another important element to consider because it includes oil, diamonds, copper, gold, iron, cobalt, uranium, bauxite, silver, petroleum, certain woods and tropical fruits.

In a must-watch interview, Dan Collins of the China Money Report agrees that the purpose of the deployment is to challenge China’s rising prominence in Africa:

(Indeed, the U.S. considers economic rivalry to be a basis for war).

In reality – as we’ve repeatedly noted – the U.S. sends in the military to fight “terrorists” in any country which has resources we want (and see this).

And the U.S. is not shy about backing our “mortal enemies” to topple those standing between us and resources we pine for.

Anthony Carlucci argues that the overthrow of Gaddafi (largely through American support of terrorists) was really the opening salvo in the war for African resources:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-10/chart-day-chinese-november-gold-imports-soar-91-tons-2012-total-720-tons

Chinese November Gold Imports Soar To 91 Tons; 2012 Total 720 Tons
by Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, 10 January 2013

Regular readers are familiar with our monthly series showing the inexorable surge in Chinese gold imports. It is time for the November update, and it's a doozy: at 90.8 tons, this was the second highest gross import number of 2012, double the 47 tons imported in October (which many saw, incorrectly, as an indication of China's waning interest in the yellow metal), and brings the Year to Date total to a massive 720 tons of gold through November. If last year is any indication, the December total will be roughly the same amount, and will bring the total 2012 import amount to over 800 tons, double the 392.6 tons imported in 2011.

Indicatively, should the full year total import number indeed print in the 800 tons range, it will mean that in one year China, whose official reserve holdings are still a negligible 1054 (and realistically at least double, if not triple, this number), will have imported more gold than the official holdings of Japan, last pegged at 765.2 tons (and well more than the ECB's 502.1 tons).

Finally, putting the November import number in context, so far in 2012 China has bought some $39 billion worth of gold. How many US Treasurys has China bought in the same time period? Under $10 billion.

Finally, let's not forget that recently China surpassed South Africa as the world's biggest producer of gold with annual output in the hundreds of tons. Add the net imports number to this total (which amounted to some 281 tons in 2012 according to Bloomberg) and one can get a sense of how big China's appetite for hard assets, instead of trillion dollar coin-backed "promises of repayment", has become.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/01/07/washingtons-hegemonic-ambitions-are-not-in-sync-with-its-faltering-economy-paul-craig-roberts/

Washington’s Hegemonic Ambitions Are Not in Sync With Its Faltering Economy
by Paul Craig Roberts, 7 January 2013

In November the largest chunk of new jobs came from retail and wholesale trade. Businesses gearing up for Christmas sales added 65,700 jobs or 45% of November’s 146,000 jobs gain. With December sales a disappointment, these jobs are likely to reverse when the January payroll jobs report comes out in February. Family Dollar Stores CEO Howard Levine told analysts that his company’s customers were unable to afford toys this holiday season and focused instead on basic needs such as food. Levine said that his customers “clearly don’t have as much for discretionary purchases as they once did.”

For December’s new jobs we return to the old standbys: health care and social assistance and waitresses and bartenders. These four classifications accounted for 93,000 of December’s new jobs, 60% of the 155,000 jobs.

Obviously, the economy is not going anywhere except down. It takes approximately 150,000 new jobs each month to stay even with population growth and new entrants into the work force. Few of the jobs that are being created pay well, and the constant, consistent demand for more poorly paid waitresses, bartenders and hospital orderlies is difficult to believe. If Americans cannot afford toys for their kid’s Christmas, how can they afford to eat and drink out?

Media spin seeks to create a recovery out of thin air, but these graphs from John Williams (shadowstats.com) show the reality:

Keep in mind that the 7.8% unemployment rate (U.3) that is headlined by the financial media does not include discouraged workers who have ceased to look for jobs. The government’s U.6 rate includes workers who have been too discouraged to seek work for less than a year. This rate of unemployment is 14.4%, almost twice the U.3 rate that the media prefers to report.

In 1994 the US government defined out of existence unemployed Americans who have been discouraged from finding work for more than a year. John Williams estimates the long term discouraged workers. When his estimate is added to the U.6 measure, the US unemployment rate stands at 23%, three times the reported rate.

The rate of unemployment is so high because millions of US jobs have been offshored and given to Chinese, Indian, and other workers and because remaining businesses have been concentrated in few hands in violation of the anti-trust laws. (Go to this URL to see the concentration of the media: http://frugaldad.com/2011/11/22/media-consolidation-infographic/ )

We need to be concerned about a financial media and economics profession that believes a recovery is underway when the unemployment rate is so high and the real median income is so low. It is a mystery how any set of policymakers could possibly have believed that a country whose economy is driven by consumer expenditures can continue to expand when the jobs that produce the incomes that drive the economy are given to foreigners in foreign lands.

Essentially, Americans were told a packet of lies designed to win their gullible acceptance to an economy that produces high returns for Wall Street, shareholders, and corporate executives at the expense of everyone else in the country. The wage savings from the use of overseas labor means large rewards for the one percent and Family Dollar customers who cannot afford to buy toys for their children at Christmas.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/01/daily-chart-7

(US's) Unhealthy Outcomes
by Economist.com, 11 January 2013

America fares badly in a comparison of health measures in rich countries

IT IS hardly news that America spends more on health care than any other country. Nor is it news that this money fails to make Americans healthy. But a new report from America’s Institute of Medicine and National Research Council illuminates the many ways in which America’s health lags that of other rich countries and tries to explain why. Health spending reached $2.7 trillion in 2011, equal to 17.9% of America’s GDP (and more than the entire GDP of Britain). Yet America performs poorly on nearly every measure. Life expectancy has risen, but not as quickly as among America’s peers. In a ranking of 17 rich countries, America’s death rate from non-communicable diseases is higher than any country except Denmark.

The statistics are particularly bleak for the young. America has the highest infant-mortality rate of the 17 rich countries examined. Its teenagers are more likely to become pregnant or die from a car accident or violence. Shockingly, deaths among under-50s account for roughly two-thirds of the gap in life expectancy between American men and those in comparable countries. The old fare better. If an American is lucky enough to reach 75, he can expect to live longer than his peers elsewhere.

America is obviously doing something wrong. But what, exactly? That is the $2.7 trillion question. The report offers a few tentative answers. The structure of America’s health system is partly to blame. Different types of care are siloed, which is inefficient. Doctors are paid for providing lots of services, rather than keeping patients well. There are fewer general practitioners. More citizens lack insurance and more find care unaffordable. The gap might also be explained by behaviour. Americans may smoke and drink less than people in other countries, but they tend to eat more, take more drugs, own more guns and are more often in drunk-driving accidents. They have sex younger, with more partners, using protection less frequently. But circumstance and behaviour cannot explain all. Interestingly, even rich, insured, non-smoking, normal-weight Americans are less healthy than adults with similar traits in similar countries.

How all these factors relate to one another is difficult to untangle. Even harder is getting politicians to agree on which problem to tackle first. Barack Obama’s health reforms, which will take full effect in 2014, expand insurance and start to tweak doctors’ perverse incentives. This new report is a reminder of how much is left to be done.