2023 年亚洲及太平洋地区的民主展望

https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/sites/default/files/2023-02/democracy-in-asia-and-the%20pacific-outlook-2023.pdf

讨论文件 1/2023

摘要

2023 年亚洲及太平洋地区民主的六大趋势

2022 年 12 月 5 日至 6 日，国际 IDEA 聚集了 30 名民主、反腐败和人权领域的顶尖专家，在印度尼西亚巴厘岛举行首届亚洲及太平洋民主展望论坛。 与会者代表来自 12 个国家的 23 个机构和组织，在七场专题会议中讨论了亚太地区民主的主要趋势。 这些会议之前是通过与几位民主和人权专家的一轮磋商和访谈确定的。 会议——关于人权； 区域合作； 气候变化； 中国; 虚假信息； 选举威权主义和军事化； 和政治金融——试图评估该地区的民主现状并预测来年的决定因素。

本文是论坛与会者的讨论、争论和建议的总结。 它的目的是将这些贡献和得出的结论提炼成一个简洁的文件。 该文本反映了汇集的专业知识，旨在集中和指导对 2023 年民主的进一步讨论和预测，并为理解整个地区的积极和消极趋势提供一个共同框架。

从采访和讨论中，可以看出六个交叉趋势：政治仍然是个人致富的途径，继续激励政治和军事精英通过压制人民权利来维持权力。 Covid-19 的挥之不去的影响包括政治空间军事化的加剧

获得权力就意味着获得资源和财富。 财富和权力的集中继续阻碍地区政治进程，并将仍然是理解未来几年政治发展的基础。 许多国家武装部队持续干预政治也部分是出于同样的动力； 缅甸、巴基斯坦和泰国就是明显的例子。 通过控制或至少显着影响政治，武装部队可以确保获得国家资源，在某些情况下还可以为领导人物获取私人财富。 结果，政治精英试图扭曲和绕过金融监管，商业精英通过捐赠和合同影响政治进程，国家资源因严重腐败而大量减少。 获取资源的不平等会导致侵犯人权，并且往往是更加民主的政治的根本障碍。

2. G20和APEC会议的经验教训可以重振亚太地区的多边主义

2022 年，该地区在国际舞台上获得了前所未有的关注度，特别是金边举行的东盟（东南亚国家联盟）峰会、巴厘岛 G20 峰会和曼谷 APEC（亚太经合组织）会议（均于 2022 年 11 月举行） 。 在印度尼西亚的精心推动下，二十国集团成功就乌克兰战争达成了共同宣言，并取得了一些切实成果，例如迄今为止最大的气候融资协议。 同样，作为东盟主席国，印度尼西亚通过设立东盟缅甸问题特使办公室（Strangio 2023），加强了围绕缅甸的协调努力。 同样，包括澳大利亚、印度、日本和美国在内的新印太四边对话正在获得关注，并有助于将印太地区定义为关键的地缘政治区域。 此外，印度担任 2023 年 G20 主席国，仍将重点放在亚太地区。 然而，亚太地区缺乏以民主为核心的区域合作机制，阻碍了民主发展和民主规范的扩散。 该地区将从拥有几个可以维护民主标准并向独裁政府施加压力的区域机构中受益匪浅——欧洲委员会和美洲民主宪章（美洲国家组织，n.d.）将是其他背景下的有用模式。 来年，随着东盟和南亚区域合作联盟等组织面临更大的压力，要求其在面对侵犯人权（暴行）和破坏人权的行为时更加直言不讳，此类机制的缺乏可能会变得更加引人注目。 民主规范。 例如，到 2023 年，东盟将面临缅甸军政府选举的挑战，而没有达到坚定和民主答案所需的协调水平。

3. 武器化的虚假信息和数字镇压继续侵蚀民主政治，既维持独裁政权的掌权，又污染民主国家的信息环境

数字镇压的兴起和虚假信息的使用日益挑战亚太地区的民主。 菲律宾 2022 年的选举就是一个鲜明的例子。 在那里，欺骗性叙述和信息的协调涌入全面污染了人们赖以做出明智决策的信息环境。 更多国家可能会继续快速镇压媒体和记者以及攻击言论自由。 这些可能采取日益严厉的有关安全、数据、假新闻或隐私法（或滥用现有立法）的立法或针对公众参与的战略诉讼（SLAAP）的形式。

4. 法治而非法治仍然是非自由势力压制人权的首选工具

该地区许多国家的体制是法治而不是法治。 其中包括严格执行严厉的法律，例如泰国的冒犯君主法或巴基斯坦和孟加拉国的亵渎法，到利用反腐败框架起诉反对派领导人和镇压民间社会组织。 限制私人公民和组织在线行为的明确压制性立法的激增——例如孟加拉国的《数字安全法案》、哈萨克斯坦的《虚假信息法案》和新加坡的《防止网络虚假信息和操纵法案》等——表明这一趋势将 到2023年才会巩固。

5. 非自由、民族主义和本土主义政策继续渗透到亚太地区，而这种政策往往是由以宗教或种族为基础的多数主义推动的

亚太地区的政党体系日益受到民族主义势力的主导，这些势力利用原教旨主义和不宽容的言论来获取权力。 本土主义和民族主义政治危及民主的基础，剥夺了数百万公民的民主权利，并质疑民主政治最重要的原则之一：经济、社会和政治平等（International IDEA 2022）。 这也是以“国家”或多数利益为幌子的腐败行为的快速通道。 这种趋势有多种形式，从中亚民族主义驱动的军事对抗，到印度尼西亚和马来西亚的政治伊斯兰化，再到缅甸和印度对穆斯林少数民族的攻击。 即使在中国这样的独裁国家，外交政策也部分受到民众民族主义压力的驱动。 包容性政治力量与民族主义力量之间，和/或政治化的民族或宗教团体之间的对抗可能会定义未来几年亚太地区的政治。

6. 青年参政是亚太地区捍卫和推进民主的一线希望

年轻人正在成为对抗亚太地区消极民主前景的强大力量。 这方面的例子可以从斯里兰卡和泰国青年驱动的行动主义，以及中亚和巴基斯坦应对气候变化的青年领导力中看到。 一些年轻人正在马来西亚、尼泊尔和菲律宾竞选公职，这体现了他们这一代人的重要性和政治影响力与日俱增。 2023年，年轻人将极大地影响孟加拉国、印度、印度尼西亚、巴基斯坦和泰国的选举。 他们日益成为抵御虚假信息和民族主义的主要堡垒。

结论

本讨论文件旨在根据专家磋商和对话，预测 2023 年亚太地区民主健康状况的最重要趋势。

2023 年标志着决定性且可能不稳定的选举浪潮的开始，这场选举将在不久的将来决定该地区的大部分政治。 从 5 月份的泰国开始，该地区一些人口最多、经济最强大的国家将在 2023 年和 2024 年经历紧张的选举进程。其中包括孟加拉国、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、哈萨克斯坦、巴基斯坦、新加坡、斯里兰卡，以及最大的单一选举国 迄今为止的历史进程，印度2024年大选。 缅甸军政府还将在 2023 年上演虚假选举进程，以期进一步获得国际认可。

所有这些都将在通胀上升、经济停滞和可能的全球衰退的情况下发生。 该地区的经济强国中国也显示出令人担忧的经济信号。 通货膨胀和经济衰退，加上气候变化引发的灾难和食品供应链的脆弱性（主要是由于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰），勾画出 2023 年亚太地区的动荡局面。

这些都是对民主基础已经摇摇欲坠的地区的压力测试。 亚洲和太平洋地区本土主义和反自由主义言论有所增加，这些言论是通过虚假信息传播的，在许多情况下还得到了军方的纵容——尽管并非总是如此。 通常，会通过量身定制的立法，为政府提供限制基本自由的镇压工具，并在必要时将司法部门武器化。 缺乏民主合作与协调的区域工具以及不断加剧的地缘政治紧张局势加剧了该地区的不稳定。

然而，它也是一些最进步的民主国家和一些最强大的民主运动的所在地。 事实证明，该国的年轻人是一股不可忽视的力量，他们大步进入正式政治（如尼泊尔或马来西亚），并领导从中亚到太平洋地区的民主斗争。 民主的希望寄托在他们身上。

DEMOCRACY IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC OUTLOOK 2023

https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/sites/default/files/2023-02/democracy-in-asia-and-the%20pacific-outlook-2023.pdf

Discussion Paper 1/2023

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

SIX TRENDS DEFINING DEMOCRACY IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC IN 2023 

On 5–6 December 2022, International IDEA gathered 30 leading experts on democracy, anti-corruption and human rights in Bali, Indonesia, at the inaugural Democracy in Asia and the Pacific Outlook Forum. Representing 23 institutions and organizations from 12 countries, attendees discussed key trends in democracy in the Asia and the Pacific region over the course of seven topical sessions. These sessions were previously defined by a round of consultations and interviews with several experts on democracy and human rights. The sessions—on human rights; regional cooperation; climate change; China; disinformation; electoral authoritarianism and militarization; and political finance—attempted to take stock of the current state of democracy in the region and forecast the determining factors in the year to come.

This Paper is a summary of the discussions, arguments and proposals made by attendees at the Forum. It aims to distil these contributions and resulting conclusions into a single, concise document. Reflecting the assembled expertise, the text aims to focus and guide further discussions and forecasting on democracy in 2023, and to provide a common framework for understanding positive and negative trends across the region. 

Out of the interviews and the discussion, six crosscutting trends can be discerned:Politics remains a pathway to personal enrichment, continuing to motivate political and military elites to maintain power by suppressing people’s rights. The lingering effects of Covid-19 include openings for the increased militarization of political spaces

Access to power comes with access to resources and enrichment. Concentrations of wealth and power continue to counteract regional political processes and will remain fundamental for understanding political developments in the coming years. The continued interference of the armed forces in politics in many countries is also partly driven by the same dynamic; Myanmar, Pakistan and Thailand are clear examples. Through controlling, or at least notably influencing, politics, the armed forces secure access to state resources, and in some cases private wealth for leading figures. As a consequence, political elites seek to twist and bypass financial regulations, business elites influence the political process through donations and contracts, and state resources are decimated through grand corruption. Unequal access to resources drives human rights abuses and is often the fundamental barrier to more democratic politics.

2. Lessons from the G20 and APEC conferences could reinvigorate multilateralism in Asia and the Pacific

The region has been provided with unprecedented visibility on the international stage in 2022, especially with the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Summit in Phnom Penh, G20 in Bali and APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) in Bangkok (all November 2022). The G20, masterfully driven by Indonesia, managed to achieve both a common declaration on the war in Ukraine and some tangible results—such as the largest climate finance deal to date. In that same line Indonesia, as chair of ASEAN, has stepped up coordination efforts around Myanmar with the creation of the office of ASEAN’s special envoy (Strangio 2023) on Myanmar. Equally, the new IndoPacific Quadrilateral Dialogue that includes Australia, India, Japan and the United States is gaining traction, and helping the definition of the Indo-Pacific as a key geopolitical area. In addition, for 2023 India holds the chair of the G20, maintaining the focus on Asia and the Pacific. Yet, Asia and the Pacific lacks a regional cooperation mechanism that is democratic at its core, which hinders democratic development and the proliferation of democratic norms. The region would greatly benefit from having several regional bodies that could maintain democratic standards and exert pressure on autocratizing governments—the Council of Europe and the Inter-American Democratic Charter (OAS n.d.) would be useful models from other contexts. In the coming year, the lack of such mechanisms will likely become more notable as pressure increases on organizations such as ASEAN and SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) to become more vocal in the face of human rights violations (atrocities) and breaking of democratic norms. In 2023, for instance, ASEAN will face the challenge of the Myanmar junta's elections without the level of coordination needed for a firm and democratic answer.

3. Weaponized disinformation and digital repression continue to erode democratic politics, both maintaining authoritarian regimes in power and contaminating the information environment in democracies

The rise of digital repression and the use of disinformation is increasingly challenging democracy in the Asia Pacific region. The 2022 elections in the Philippines is a stark case. There, a coordinated influx of deceptive narratives and messages comprehensively contaminated the information environment that people relied on to make informed decisions. It is likely that repression of media outlets and journalists, as well as attacks on freedom of expression, will continue apace in more countries. These may take the form of increasingly draconian legislation concerning security, data, fake news or privacy laws (or the misuse of existing legislation thereof) or strategic lawsuits against public participation (SLAAPs). 

4. Rule by law instead of rule of law remains a favoured tool of illiberal forces repressing human rights

In many countries in the region, the system is rule by law rather than rule of law. This ranges from the strict application of draconian laws, such as lèse-majesté in Thailand or blasphemy laws in Pakistan and Bangladesh, to the use of anti-corruption frameworks to prosecute opposition leaders and crack down on civil society organizations. The proliferation of explicitly repressive legislation that curtails the online conduct of private citizens and organizations—such as the Digital Security Act in Bangladesh, the False Information Bill in Kazakhstan and the Singaporean Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act, among others—indicates this trend will only solidify in 2023. 

5. Illiberal, nationalistic and nativist policies continue to permeate Asia and the Pacific, often fuelled by majoritarianism anchored in religion or ethnicity

Party systems across Asia and the Pacific are increasingly dominated by ethnic nationalistic forces that wield fundamentalist and intolerant rhetoric to achieve power. Nativist and nationalist politics endanger the very foundation of democracy, depriving millions of citizens of their democratic rights and questioning one of the most important principles of democratic politics: economic, social and political equality (International IDEA 2022). It is also a fast track to corrupt practices disguised under appeals to the ‘national’ or majority interest. The tendency takes diverse forms, ranging from nationalistdriven military confrontations in Central Asia, to Islamization of politics in Indonesia and Malaysia, to attacks on Muslim minorities in Myanmar and India. Even in authoritarian states such as China, foreign policy is driven in part by popular nationalist pressure. Confrontations between inclusive political forces and ethnonationalist ones, and/or between politicized ethnic or religious groups might define politics in Asia and the Pacific in the years to come.

6. Youth in politics as the sliver of hope for defending and advancing democracy in Asia and the Pacific 

Young people are becoming a powerful countervailing force against the negative outlook for democracy in Asia and the Pacific. Examples of this can be seen in youth-driven activism in Sri Lanka and Thailand, as well as youth leadership in the fight against climate change in Central Asia and Pakistan. Some young people are running for office in Malaysia, Nepal and the Philippines, exemplifying the increasing importance and political influence of their generation. In 2023, young people will greatly influence elections in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Thailand. They are increasingly acting as the main bulwark against disinformation and ethnonationalism.

CONCLUSION

This Discussion Paper has aimed to forecast the most important trends that will define the health of democracy in Asia and the Pacific in 2023, based on expert consultations and dialogue. 

The year 2023 marks the beginning of a decisive and potentially volatile wave of elections that will define much of the region’s politics in the near future. Starting with Thailand in May, some of the most populous and economically powerful countries in the region will undergo tense electoral processes in 2023 and 2024. These include Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Singapore, Sri Lanka, and the single biggest electoral process in history to date, India’s 2024 election. The Myanmar junta will also stage its bogus electoral process in 2023 with the aim of gaining further international recognition.

All these will take place amid rising inflation, economic stagnation and a possible global recession. The economic powerhouse of the region, China, is also showing worrying economic signals. Inflation and recession, in addition to climate-change-induced disasters and the vulnerability of the food supply chain—mostly because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine—sketch a volatile scenario for Asia and the Pacific in 2023. 

These are stress-tests for a region whose democratic foundations are already shaky. Asia and the Pacific is seeing a rise in nativist and illiberal rhetoric, fed through disinformation and in many cases with the connivance of the military— although not always. More often than not, tailor-made legislation is passed to provide governments with repressive tools to restrict fundamental freedoms, weaponizing the judiciary when necessary. Lack of regional instruments of democratic cooperation and coordination and rising geopolitical tensions add to the instability of the region.

Yet it is also home to some of the most progressive democracies and some of the most powerful democratic movements. Its young people are proving to be a force to be reckoned with, making strides into formal politics (as in Nepal or Malaysia) as well as leading struggles for democracy from Central Asia to the Pacific. Hope for democracy rests on them.