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關稅分析報告:物價上漲,GDP下降
送交者: 隨意生活 2024年09月23日07:19:14 於 [五 味 齋] 發送悄悄話


美國政府對進口的中國物品實施關稅已有6年,究竟效果如何?來自tax foundation 的分析:(https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-biden-tariffs/

The Trump administration imposed nearly $80 billion worth of new taxes on Americans by levying tariffs on thousands of products valued at approximately $380 billion in 2018 and 2019, amounting to one of the largest tax increases in decades.

川普政府從中國進口美國的貨物,每年獲得近800億美金的收入。


The Biden administration has kept most of the Trump administration tariffs in place, and in May 2024, announced tariff hikes on an additional $18 billion of Chinese goods, including semiconductors and electric vehicles, for an additional tax increase of $3.6 billion.

拜登政府在川普政府的基礎上,增加關稅,獲得36億美元額外款項,使得關稅收入超過800億。


We estimate the Trump-Biden tariffs will reduce long-run GDP by 0.2 percent, the capital stock by 0.1 percent, and employment by 142,000 full-time equivalent jobs.

由於關稅,美國GDP下降0.2%。


Altogether, the trade war policies currently in place add up to $79 billion in tariffs based on trade levels at the time of tariff implementation and excluding behavioral and dynamic effects.


Before accounting for behavioral effects, the $79 billion in higher tariffs amounts to an average annual tax increase on US households of $625. Based on actual revenue collections data, trade war tariffs have directly increased tax collections by $200 to $300 annually per US household, on average. Both estimates understate the cost to US households because they do not factor in the lost output, lower incomes, and loss in consumer choice the tariffs have caused.

關稅使美國每個家庭每年多交625美元的稅。


Candidate Trump has proposed significant tariff hikes as part of his presidential campaign; we estimate that if imposed, his proposed tariff increases would hike taxes by another $524 billion annually and shrink GDP by at least 0.8 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, and employment by 684,000 full-time equivalent jobs. Our estimates do not capture the effects of retaliation, nor the additional harms that would stem from starting a global trade war.

川普揚言:如當選將加大關稅力度。


Academic and governmental studies find the Trump-Biden tariffs have raised prices and reduced output and employment, producing a net negative impact on the US economy.

總結:物價上漲,生產與工作降低,經濟受到負面影響。


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