Opinion: Biden will win, polls say. But the stock market is sending a different signal
A century’s worth of election-year data suggests President Trump will win re-election
Since 1928, whenever the S&P 500 Index SPX, -0.55% of the largest U.S. stocks has risen in the three months prior to a presidential election, the party that controlled the White House won 90% of the time.
“If you think about it intuitively, it makes sense,” says Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivative strategist for the investment firm BTIG who compiled the data. “Because a rising stock market tends to be a ratification of the present policies being satisfying to the investing public.”
