Demographics and Pandemics

Current coronavirus pandemics is spreading rapidly all over the world. While few countries are completely spared of this scourge, countries with aging demographics are hardest hit.

The coronavirus disease was originated from China. It has adopted a strict one child policy for many years. As a result, in a typical family, a couple at working age have to support four aging parents. This put great strain to many families and communities.

Other areas hard hit by the coronavirus disease, such as South Korea, Iran, Europe and North America, all have aging demographics. The areas with younger populations are less devastated by the advance of this disease. Why demographics makes such a great difference in the face of pandemics?

The existence of microbes is not the sole reason for pandemics. Microbes have existed for billions of years. Sometimes they cause pandemics. Sometimes they don’t. They may cause pandemics in some populations. They may not cause pandemics in other populations. The occurrence and spread of pandemics is the result of interactions of the whole ecosystem. Specifically, there can be several reasons.

First, older people generally have weaker immune systems. In a population with higher percentage of older people, more people are likely to get sick from the spread of microbes.

Second, in a society of older population, more effort is made to sterilize the environment. As a result, the environment contains less microbes than otherwise. However, the most effective antibiotics are often excreted by microbes, to protect themselves from competing microbes. That is why new microbes, such as superbugs, often thrive in highly sterile environment, such as hospitals. The paucity of existing microbes in an environment makes it easy for new microbes to take over the available niches. Since the advance of new microbes faces less resistance from existing microbes, people are more vulnerable to new microbes in a more sterile environment.

Third, the medical system and other service systems are already stretched thin even in normal times in an aging society. There is little spare capacity to cushion the extra burden. Furthermore, the arrival of a pandemics often significantly reduces the capacity of the social system. The impact of microbe invasion, or other disturbances, are much more pronounced in an aging society than in a young society.

In most of the Western societies, the birthrate has dropped below the replacement rate for several decades. Yet the policymakers pay scant attention to this vital indicator. To them, the financial markets are the leading indicator of the society. They take many measures to pop up the financial market, most of which further depress the birthrate. In Canada, pension deduction rate has been increasing continuously over time. This infuses more money into the financial market but reduces the amount of money to support young families at their most fertile period. In US, low interest rate and quantitative easing fuels the longest bull market in history. The same policies also diluted the few resources to ordinary families. Its birthrate has dropped to the lowest level in record.

Our society is not supported by the stock market. Our society is supported by food, electricity and fuels. Our society is supported by grocery stores cashiers and stockers, farmers and workers. This becomes plain and simple during crisis. We need more people, more young people with strong immune systems, more young people who can work effectively under stress. To achieve a younger demographics, we can’t keep our eyes glued to the financial indicators. We have to pay attention to birthrate and other vital biophysical indictors. This is the first step we need to take.