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The ebb and flow of pandemic
送交者: 江靈颺 2022年01月16日21:48:15 於 [天下論壇] 發送悄悄話

Like it or not, we humans have been co-existing with deadly pathogens since time immemorial. We win. We lose. We survive. We thrive. We progress. So do our nemeses. That's why we still have nightmares. Actually, we never fail to remind ourselves of some pathogenic specter lurking around. Remember how we couldn't wait to stream the 2011 movie "Contagion" when COVID-19 hit America? We hate the pandemic so much that we love to see it unfolding on the screen. In the face of thrill, resistance is futile.


The current pandemic, like its precedents, has promised us a thrill ride, and we are on one. But if history is any guide, we will ride out the pandemic, sooner or later -- hopefully sooner. Charting the courses of past pandemics, we are quite confident to say that the current one will run its course. When it does, it has regressed to the mean. What is regression to the mean? It is a statistical concept indicating that extremities left and right will merge into the middle range. Applied to the prevailing pathogen, COVID will evolve toward a mild form. Indeed, the Omicron variant may be higher on morbidity (infection rate) but it is significantly lower on mortality (death rate). Warning: regression to the mean takes time. There could be a few more ups and downs before we get there. Yes, we are still on a thrill ride.



Author: Lingyang Jiang


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