The Global Focus Will Shift from the Russia-Ukraine War to the Middle East, and Then to the Indo-Pacific

By Archer Hong Qian

1. Trump-Putin Call (March 18) and the First Step Toward Ceasefire

On March 18, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the 30-day ceasefire agreement reached between the U.S. and Ukraine in Jeddah. Although Putin did not fully support the ceasefire, he agreed to three initial steps:

✅ Pause attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for 30 days.
✅ Exchange 175 prisoners of war between Russia and Ukraine.
✅ Stop attacks on Black Sea transportation routes.

While these measures mark a limited breakthrough, full military de-escalation remains uncertain.

2. The Middle East Becomes the New Global Focus

Major events on March 17 could shift the world’s attention from Ukraine to the Middle East:

🚨 Israel resumed full-scale military operations against Hamas and assassinated Hamas' newly appointed prime minister.
🚨 The U.S. launched its third wave of military strikes against the Houthis in Yemen.
🚨 The U.S. Navy sank Iran’s intelligence flagship, the largest supporter of the Houthis.

These actions indicate that Washington’s focus on the Middle East is rapidly escalating, with direct military confrontations intensifying between the U.S., Israel, Iran, and their proxies.

3. Did the U.S. Implicitly Reach an Understanding with Russia on Iran?

During the Trump-Putin call, both leaders agreed that “Iran must never be allowed to threaten Israel’s existence.”

Although this statement does not explicitly imply a “U.S.-Russia anti-Iran coalition”, it strongly suggests:
✔ The U.S. is prepared for direct military action against Iran if necessary.
✔ Despite its historical ties with Iran, Russia will not interfere or retaliate against U.S. military actions targeting Iranian forces.
✔ Trump’s foreign policy strategy may prioritize containing Iran over escalating conflicts with Russia.

This could mark a significant geopolitical shift—the Russia-Ukraine conflict will no longer be the world’s primary concern, as the focus turns to an increasingly severe Middle East crisis.

4. Possible Outcomes: What Happens Next?

🔹 Scenario 1: The Russia-Ukraine War Becomes a Secondary Issue

• If full military ceasefire is implemented in Ukraine and multi-stage peace talks begin, global attention will gradually shift away from the war.

• As the situation develops, the Russia-Ukraine war could transition into a long-term, frozen conflict, similar to the Korean Peninsula or Kashmir dispute.

🔹 Scenario 2: The U.S. Shifts Military Focus to the Middle East

• If the Middle East conflict escalates further, the U.S. might redirect military resources and diplomatic pressure from Europe to the Gulf region.

• If Russia does not directly oppose the U.S. in the Middle East, it could use this opportunity to consolidate its position in Ukraine while global attention is elsewhere.

🔹 Scenario 3: Trump’s Foreign Policy Priorities Become Clearer

• If the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire holds, Trump’s main foreign policy focus will likely shift to the Indo-Pacific, where the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and regional power struggles will become the next major geopolitical theater.

• Trump’s goal of reducing U.S. military overreach and refocusing on economic competition with China would take precedence.

• The "Third Path" strategy for resolving the Russia-Ukraine war could become a model for diplomatic resolutions elsewhere, setting a precedent for resolving conflicts in other regions.

5. Conclusion: A New Global Geopolitical Landscape?

✔ The Middle East crisis could soon overshadow the Russia-Ukraine war in terms of global media attention and strategic importance.
✔ If the Russia-Ukraine military ceasefire succeeds, Trump may shift his strategy to a dual approach:
1️⃣ Managing the Middle East crisis (Israel-Iran conflict, U.S. presence in the Gulf).
2️⃣ Addressing security challenges in the Indo-Pacific (Taiwan, South China Sea, East China Sea).
✔ A Trump-Putin tacit understanding on Iran could lead to a temporary easing of tensions in Eastern Europe, while Washington’s military attention pivots to new theaters of conflict.

The coming months will be crucial—if the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire holds, we could witness a major geopolitical realignment in 2025!

March 19, 2025 — Vancouver