國運的轉捩點

A Turning Point in National Destiny

——簡評2025美國《國家安全戰略》

— A Brief Commentary on the United States’ 2025 National Security Strategy

錢宏（Archer Hong Qian）

2025年12月7日於溫哥華

美國總統唐納德·川普（Donald Trump）已於近日（2025年12月4日晚）發布了他第二任期的首份《國家安全戰略》（National Security Strategy, NSS）報告。

《國家安全戰略》報告，可謂美國五十年來第一次在大戰略上進行系統重構：既重新審視並卸下過去五十年特別三十年來，美國肩上不斷堆積的義務、期待，及其制度惰性、財政負擔與政治正確幻象，又是一場塑造未來世界三十年的戰略重心再組織再布局——以“美國優先”（America First）為責任政策示範，強調放棄“永久主導世界”的“靈活現實主義”！但也絕不是美國全球角色的消極撤退，該當然就不是孤立主義宣言。

這種靈活現實主義，在思維方式上，清晰地擺脫了21世紀初那種道德先行、意識形態優先的戰略幻象，直接宣布“美國像阿特拉斯般支撐整個世界秩序的時代已經結束”，而回到了三個清晰判斷：第一，美國究竟應當追求什麼目標？第二，美國現有和潛在的資源與手段能夠支撐什麼？第三，如何在現實能力、國力結構與戰略目標之間建立可持續的連接？

三個關鍵判斷——追求目標、資源支撐、目標與能力的可持續連接——正是這份報告試圖解決的根本問題。這份報告的內涵與影響體現在以下幾個方面：

一、戰略重構的核心：“靈活現實主義”

“靈活現實主義”（Flexible Realism）是這份報告的靈魂。它標誌着美國外交政策從後冷戰時代試圖建立單極世界秩序、推廣普世價值的“理想主義干預”轉向更務實、更克制，也更明晰的國家責任。

  擺脫道德與意識形態優先：報告明確不再將推廣民主或干預他國內政作為首要任務，而是專注於保護“We the People”的切身利益，並強調這是一種責任示範。

  國家利益為核心：戰略重心回歸“美國優先”，意味着所有政策都圍繞如何最有效地保障美國的安全、經濟繁榮和全球地位展開。

二、該戰略報告試圖通過以下方式回答三個問題

1. 美國究竟應當追求什麼？

追求一個“美國示範下的平衡秩序”：報告放棄了“永久主導世界”的野心和“全球自由貿易”幻象，轉而尋求一種能夠確保美國利益最大化的“產業鏈、供應鏈、價值鏈通暢的零關稅、零壁壘、零歧視規則”全球平衡狀態。核心目標從“塑造全球秩序”變為“確保美國在關鍵領域的首要地位並遏制挑戰者”，特別是將中國和俄羅斯定位為主要戰略競爭對手。這意味着放下以Subject自居而視他國為Object的傳統思維，進入Intersubjective Symbiosism當代思維的價值取向。

1. 美國現有的資源與手段能夠支撐什麼？

報告承認美國國力並非無限，必須聚焦資源，進行戰略把控和資源再分配。通過重申“門羅主義”並降低歐洲和中東的戰略權重，美國得以將有限的資源集中投入到它認為最關鍵的西半球和印太地區，以確保資源與戰略目標相匹配。這裡意味着在經濟價值參量上，改變二戰以來延用了80多年的以資本增值/減值為標準的GDP價值參量，而採用以資源能效/能耗為標準的GDE價值參量。

1. 如何在現實能力、國力結構與戰略目標之間建立可持續的連接？

戰略收縮與責任調整：報告通過系統性地“卸下不斷堆積的義務”，如減少對國際組織的資助、要求盟友自強，承擔更多責任，來減輕“財政負擔與制度惰性”。這種調整旨在構建一種更可持續的戰略態勢，確保美國的能力能夠長期支撐其核心戰略目標——MAGA-MAHA。

三、深遠影響

這份報告的影響將是深遠的，它不僅重塑了美國自身的戰略方向，也深刻改變了全球地緣政治格局：

1. 全球秩序加速多極化：美國的戰略收縮留下了一些“權力真空”，加速了全球多極秩序的形成，區域大國的作用日益凸顯。

2. 大國競爭成為主軸：中美關係進入一個長期、全面的戰略競爭階段，博弈焦點集中在印太地區、關鍵技術和全球經濟規則的制定上。

3. 盟友體系的調整：美國對盟友的要求更高，更加務實。盟友關係不再是基於共同價值觀的無條件支持，而是基於明確的利益交換和自組織責任分擔。

4. 挑戰與不確定性：戰略的實施將取決於川普政府能否克服美國“深層政府”和兩黨外交政策精英的阻力。各國正密切關注並調整自身政策以適應這一新的國際格局變化。

綜上所述，這份報告確實是一次深刻的戰略回歸，它標誌着美國告別了後冷戰時代的“單極幻象”，回歸到一種更加冷靜、務實且以國家利益為導向的自組織的“靈活現實主義”軌道上來。

最後我想說，當值美國總統川普剛剛簽署的2025《國家安全戰略》報告，是一份以“實力和平，和平繁榮”化解內外衝突重建世界秩序的“國家安全戰略”。

因此，這也是一種關乎所有國家安全的新版全球化（3.0）布局。儘管在這個務實的“自組織交易”全球化3.0布局中，強調了國際競爭，尤其是大國競爭，地緣政治影響深遠，但具體到每個國家，無論是否美國的盟友，無論身處西半球還是東半球，是印太大西洋還是南北極，包括美國自身在內，實際情況很可能都是一次別無選擇的歷時性與共時性選擇，是各國國運的轉捩點，即：

要麼有智慧、有勇氣、有能力爭取入局，一起安全繁榮；要麼成為愚蠢、怯懦、“一念之差”連累本國人民吃苦的麻煩製造者（千萬別鑽所謂“權力真空”的牛角尖），而自甘出局！

阿特拉斯也會聳聳肩，而不會推開天穹不管⋯⋯

A Turning Point in National Destiny

— A Brief Commentary on the United States’ 2025 National Security Strategy

Archer Hong Qian

Vancouver, December 7, 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump issued the first National Security Strategy (NSS) report of his second term on the evening of December 4, 2025.

This National Security Strategy is arguably the first comprehensive restructuring of American grand strategy in half a century. It re-examines—and deliberately unloads—the obligations, expectations, institutional inertia, fiscal burdens, and ideological illusions that have accumulated on America’s shoulders over the past fifty years, especially the last thirty. It simultaneously lays out a strategic reorganization that will shape the world for the next thirty years—a reorientation grounded in America First as a model of responsible policy, and in a doctrine of Flexible Realism, which rejects the ambition of “permanently dominating the world.” Crucially, this is not a declaration of isolationism, nor a passive withdrawal from America’s global role.

This Flexible Realism decisively abandons the early-21st-century illusion that foreign policy must be driven by moralism or ideology. It declares openly that “the era in which America, like Atlas, supported the entire world order has come to an end.” The new approach returns to three clear strategic questions:

1. What goals should the United States actually pursue?

2. What existing and potential resources can the United States realistically mobilize?

3. How can sustainable connections be built between strategic goals, national capabilities, and the real structure of American power?

These three judgments—appropriate goals, resource alignment, and sustainable linkage between objectives and capabilities—are the core problems the NSS attempts to solve. Its meaning and impact can be seen in the following dimensions:

1. The Core of Strategic Reconstruction: “Flexible Realism”

Flexible Realism is the soul of the new report. It marks a shift away from the post–Cold War idealist project of shaping a unipolar world or exporting universal values. Instead, it reflects a more pragmatic, restrained, and responsibility-based understanding of America’s role.

1. A departure from moralism and ideology-first policies

The report explicitly rejects democracy promotion or intervention in other states’ internal affairs as America’s primary mission. The priority now is the concrete well-being of “We the People,” upheld as a form of responsible leadership rather than moral crusading.

1. The re-centering of national interest

“America First” is not isolationism—it is a recalibration. All policies must now answer the question:
How does this best secure American safety, prosperity, and long-term strength?

1. How the NSS Answers the Three Foundational Questions

2. What should the United States pursue?

The NSS envisions a balanced global order shaped by American example, not American domination. It abandons fantasies of permanent hegemony and the ideology of “global free trade,” and instead advocates a global environment built on:

• zero tariffs

• zero barriers

• zero discrimination

within restructured industrial, supply, and value chains.

America’s goal shifts from “shaping the world order” to protecting decisive advantages in critical domains, while constraining challengers—especially China and Russia—identified as primary strategic competitors. This implies a shift away from subject–object thinking (America as subject, others as object) toward the relational logic of Intersubjective Symbiosism.

1. What can America’s real resources support?

The report acknowledges that American power is not unlimited. It calls for strategic prioritization and resource redistribution. By reaffirming Monroe Doctrine principles and reducing commitments in Europe and the Middle East, the U.S. consolidates resources to focus on the Western Hemisphere and the Indo-Pacific—the regions it considers vital.

This also implies a shift in economic value metrics from the post-WWII GDP paradigm—based on capital appreciation—to the GDE value parameter, which evaluates systems through energy efficiency and resource effectiveness.

1. How can sustainable connections be built between capability and strategy?

The NSS emphasizes strategic consolidation and responsibility adjustment:

• reducing burdens on the U.S. budget

• demanding greater contributions from allies

• shedding obsolete obligations and institutional inertia

The aim is to create a strategy whose objectives match capabilities, enabling the long-term pursuit of MAGA–MAHA.

III. Far-Reaching Implications

This NSS will profoundly reshape both U.S. strategy and the global geopolitical landscape.

1. Accelerated multipolarity

America’s strategic consolidation creates vacuum zones that hasten the rise of regional powers and a more multipolar world order.

1. Great-power competition as the central axis

U.S.–China relations enter a prolonged era of systemic competition centered on:

• the Indo-Pacific

• critical technologies

• the rules governing the global economic system

1. A transformed alliance structure

Expectations for allies increase. Partnerships are no longer unconditional arrangements based on shared values, but interest-based exchanges with responsibilities rooted in self-organization.

1. Challenges and uncertainties

Implementation depends on the Trump administration’s ability to overcome resistance from America’s “deep state” and bipartisan foreign-policy elites. Every country is recalibrating to navigate this emerging world order.

1. A Strategic Homecoming

This NSS represents a decisive break with the post–Cold War “unipolar illusion.”
It marks the U.S. return to a sober, pragmatic, interest-anchored path of self-organizing Flexible Realism.

The 2025 NSS is, in essence, a “peace-through-strength, prosperity-through-peace” blueprint for resolving internal and external conflicts and rebuilding world order—an architecture for Globalization 3.0.

1. A Turning Point for Every Nation’s Destiny

This new, transactional, self-organizing global layout emphasizes competition—especially among major powers—but its ultimate implications reach every country:

Whether a state is an ally of the U.S. or not, whether located in the Western or Eastern Hemisphere, in the Indo-Pacific, the Atlantic, the Arctic, or Antarctic—including the United States itself—this moment forces a historical choice:

Either possess the wisdom, courage, and capability to join the new order and prosper together,
or become a maker of needless trouble—foolish, timid, or misled—dragging its own people into suffering, and removing itself from the world’s central stage.

Atlas may shrug—but he will not abandon the heavens.