国运的转捩点

A Turning Point in National Destiny

——简评2025美国《国家安全战略》

— A Brief Commentary on the United States’ 2025 National Security Strategy

钱宏（Archer Hong Qian）

2025年12月7日于温哥华

美国总统唐纳德·川普（Donald Trump）已于近日（2025年12月4日晚）发布了他第二任期的首份《国家安全战略》（National Security Strategy, NSS）报告。

《国家安全战略》报告，可谓美国五十年来第一次在大战略上进行系统重构：既重新审视并卸下过去五十年特别三十年来，美国肩上不断堆积的义务、期待，及其制度惰性、财政负担与政治正确幻象，又是一场塑造未来世界三十年的战略重心再组织再布局——以“美国优先”（America First）为责任政策示范，强调放弃“永久主导世界”的“灵活现实主义”！但也绝不是美国全球角色的消极撤退，该当然就不是孤立主义宣言。

这种灵活现实主义，在思维方式上，清晰地摆脱了21世纪初那种道德先行、意识形态优先的战略幻象，直接宣布“美国像阿特拉斯般支撑整个世界秩序的时代已经结束”，而回到了三个清晰判断：第一，美国究竟应当追求什么目标？第二，美国现有和潜在的资源与手段能够支撑什么？第三，如何在现实能力、国力结构与战略目标之间建立可持续的连接？

三个关键判断——追求目标、资源支撑、目标与能力的可持续连接——正是这份报告试图解决的根本问题。这份报告的内涵与影响体现在以下几个方面：

一、战略重构的核心：“灵活现实主义”

“灵活现实主义”（Flexible Realism）是这份报告的灵魂。它标志着美国外交政策从后冷战时代试图建立单极世界秩序、推广普世价值的“理想主义干预”转向更务实、更克制，也更明晰的国家责任。

  摆脱道德与意识形态优先：报告明确不再将推广民主或干预他国内政作为首要任务，而是专注于保护“We the People”的切身利益，并强调这是一种责任示范。

  国家利益为核心：战略重心回归“美国优先”，意味着所有政策都围绕如何最有效地保障美国的安全、经济繁荣和全球地位展开。

二、该战略报告试图通过以下方式回答三个问题

1. 美国究竟应当追求什么？

追求一个“美国示范下的平衡秩序”：报告放弃了“永久主导世界”的野心和“全球自由贸易”幻象，转而寻求一种能够确保美国利益最大化的“产业链、供应链、价值链通畅的零关税、零壁垒、零歧视规则”全球平衡状态。核心目标从“塑造全球秩序”变为“确保美国在关键领域的首要地位并遏制挑战者”，特别是将中国和俄罗斯定位为主要战略竞争对手。这意味着放下以Subject自居而視他国为Object的传统思维，进入Intersubjective Symbiosism当代思维的价值取向。

1. 美国现有的资源与手段能够支撑什么？

报告承认美国国力并非无限，必须聚焦资源，进行战略把控和资源再分配。通过重申“门罗主义”并降低欧洲和中东的战略权重，美国得以将有限的资源集中投入到它认为最关键的西半球和印太地区，以确保资源与战略目标相匹配。这里意味着在经济价值参量上，改变二战以来延用了80多年的以资本增值/减值为标准的GDP价值参量，而采用以资源能效/能耗为标准的GDE价值参量。

1. 如何在现实能力、国力结构与战略目标之间建立可持续的连接？

战略收缩与责任调整：报告通过系统性地“卸下不断堆积的义务”，如减少对国际组织的资助、要求盟友自强，承担更多责任，来减轻“财政负担与制度惰性”。这种调整旨在构建一种更可持续的战略态势，确保美国的能力能够长期支撑其核心战略目标——MAGA-MAHA。

三、深远影响

这份报告的影响将是深远的，它不仅重塑了美国自身的战略方向，也深刻改变了全球地缘政治格局：

1. 全球秩序加速多极化：美国的战略收缩留下了一些“权力真空”，加速了全球多极秩序的形成，区域大国的作用日益凸显。

2. 大国竞争成为主轴：中美关系进入一个长期、全面的战略竞争阶段，博弈焦点集中在印太地区、关键技术和全球经济规则的制定上。

3. 盟友体系的调整：美国对盟友的要求更高，更加务实。盟友关系不再是基于共同价值观的无条件支持，而是基于明确的利益交换和自组织责任分担。

4. 挑战与不确定性：战略的实施将取决于川普政府能否克服美国“深层政府”和两党外交政策精英的阻力。各国正密切关注并调整自身政策以适应这一新的国际格局变化。

综上所述，这份报告确实是一次深刻的战略回归，它标志着美国告别了后冷战时代的“单极幻象”，回归到一种更加冷静、务实且以国家利益为导向的自组织的“灵活现实主义”轨道上来。

最后我想说，当值美国总统川普刚刚签署的2025《国家安全战略》报告，是一份以“实力和平，和平繁荣”化解内外冲突重建世界秩序的“国家安全战略”。

因此，这也是一种关乎所有国家安全的新版全球化（3.0）布局。尽管在这个务实的“自组织交易”全球化3.0布局中，强调了国际竞争，尤其是大国竞争，地缘政治影响深远，但具体到每个国家，无论是否美国的盟友，无论身处西半球还是东半球，是印太大西洋还是南北极，包括美国自身在内，实际情况很可能都是一次别无选择的历时性与共时性选择，是各国国运的转捩点，即：

要么有智慧、有勇气、有能力争取入局，一起安全繁荣；要么成为愚蠢、怯懦、“一念之差”连累本国人民吃苦的麻烦制造者（千万别钻所谓“权力真空”的牛角尖），而自甘出局！

阿特拉斯也会耸耸肩，而不会推开天穹不管⋯⋯

A Turning Point in National Destiny

— A Brief Commentary on the United States’ 2025 National Security Strategy

Archer Hong Qian

Vancouver, December 7, 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump issued the first National Security Strategy (NSS) report of his second term on the evening of December 4, 2025.

This National Security Strategy is arguably the first comprehensive restructuring of American grand strategy in half a century. It re-examines—and deliberately unloads—the obligations, expectations, institutional inertia, fiscal burdens, and ideological illusions that have accumulated on America’s shoulders over the past fifty years, especially the last thirty. It simultaneously lays out a strategic reorganization that will shape the world for the next thirty years—a reorientation grounded in America First as a model of responsible policy, and in a doctrine of Flexible Realism, which rejects the ambition of “permanently dominating the world.” Crucially, this is not a declaration of isolationism, nor a passive withdrawal from America’s global role.

This Flexible Realism decisively abandons the early-21st-century illusion that foreign policy must be driven by moralism or ideology. It declares openly that “the era in which America, like Atlas, supported the entire world order has come to an end.” The new approach returns to three clear strategic questions:

1. What goals should the United States actually pursue?

2. What existing and potential resources can the United States realistically mobilize?

3. How can sustainable connections be built between strategic goals, national capabilities, and the real structure of American power?

These three judgments—appropriate goals, resource alignment, and sustainable linkage between objectives and capabilities—are the core problems the NSS attempts to solve. Its meaning and impact can be seen in the following dimensions:

1. The Core of Strategic Reconstruction: “Flexible Realism”

Flexible Realism is the soul of the new report. It marks a shift away from the post–Cold War idealist project of shaping a unipolar world or exporting universal values. Instead, it reflects a more pragmatic, restrained, and responsibility-based understanding of America’s role.

1. A departure from moralism and ideology-first policies

The report explicitly rejects democracy promotion or intervention in other states’ internal affairs as America’s primary mission. The priority now is the concrete well-being of “We the People,” upheld as a form of responsible leadership rather than moral crusading.

1. The re-centering of national interest

“America First” is not isolationism—it is a recalibration. All policies must now answer the question:
How does this best secure American safety, prosperity, and long-term strength?

1. How the NSS Answers the Three Foundational Questions

2. What should the United States pursue?

The NSS envisions a balanced global order shaped by American example, not American domination. It abandons fantasies of permanent hegemony and the ideology of “global free trade,” and instead advocates a global environment built on:

• zero tariffs

• zero barriers

• zero discrimination

within restructured industrial, supply, and value chains.

America’s goal shifts from “shaping the world order” to protecting decisive advantages in critical domains, while constraining challengers—especially China and Russia—identified as primary strategic competitors. This implies a shift away from subject–object thinking (America as subject, others as object) toward the relational logic of Intersubjective Symbiosism.

1. What can America’s real resources support?

The report acknowledges that American power is not unlimited. It calls for strategic prioritization and resource redistribution. By reaffirming Monroe Doctrine principles and reducing commitments in Europe and the Middle East, the U.S. consolidates resources to focus on the Western Hemisphere and the Indo-Pacific—the regions it considers vital.

This also implies a shift in economic value metrics from the post-WWII GDP paradigm—based on capital appreciation—to the GDE value parameter, which evaluates systems through energy efficiency and resource effectiveness.

1. How can sustainable connections be built between capability and strategy?

The NSS emphasizes strategic consolidation and responsibility adjustment:

• reducing burdens on the U.S. budget

• demanding greater contributions from allies

• shedding obsolete obligations and institutional inertia

The aim is to create a strategy whose objectives match capabilities, enabling the long-term pursuit of MAGA–MAHA.

III. Far-Reaching Implications

This NSS will profoundly reshape both U.S. strategy and the global geopolitical landscape.

1. Accelerated multipolarity

America’s strategic consolidation creates vacuum zones that hasten the rise of regional powers and a more multipolar world order.

1. Great-power competition as the central axis

U.S.–China relations enter a prolonged era of systemic competition centered on:

• the Indo-Pacific

• critical technologies

• the rules governing the global economic system

1. A transformed alliance structure

Expectations for allies increase. Partnerships are no longer unconditional arrangements based on shared values, but interest-based exchanges with responsibilities rooted in self-organization.

1. Challenges and uncertainties

Implementation depends on the Trump administration’s ability to overcome resistance from America’s “deep state” and bipartisan foreign-policy elites. Every country is recalibrating to navigate this emerging world order.

1. A Strategic Homecoming

This NSS represents a decisive break with the post–Cold War “unipolar illusion.”
It marks the U.S. return to a sober, pragmatic, interest-anchored path of self-organizing Flexible Realism.

The 2025 NSS is, in essence, a “peace-through-strength, prosperity-through-peace” blueprint for resolving internal and external conflicts and rebuilding world order—an architecture for Globalization 3.0.

1. A Turning Point for Every Nation’s Destiny

This new, transactional, self-organizing global layout emphasizes competition—especially among major powers—but its ultimate implications reach every country:

Whether a state is an ally of the U.S. or not, whether located in the Western or Eastern Hemisphere, in the Indo-Pacific, the Atlantic, the Arctic, or Antarctic—including the United States itself—this moment forces a historical choice:

Either possess the wisdom, courage, and capability to join the new order and prosper together,
or become a maker of needless trouble—foolish, timid, or misled—dragging its own people into suffering, and removing itself from the world’s central stage.

Atlas may shrug—but he will not abandon the heavens.