The short answer is a big fat NO. Here is why:

To be fair, the dollar was already on track to decline steadily under Trump. Under Biden, though, a weakened King Dollar is still very much the King Dollar. Today, the King Dollar accounts for just over 60% of official sector reserves world-wide. The euro is humbled at 20%. You can figure out yourself the current standing of the dollar.

You might very well ask: But what about tomorrow? 

Fair enough. We are living in a time when things could turn on a dime, no pun intended. We don’t have a crystal ball, needless to say. What is needed to say is that we can check out the King Dollar’s challengers. The euro? The yuan/renminbi?

Let’s not take the yuan too seriously, for argument’s sake. If you were a paid mouthpiece of the PRC, I bet you might prefer to be paid in dollars. You know and I know that the yuan doesn’t really get you far enough as a global currency. The truth hurts, I know. But then we can’t do without a reality check from time to time, right?

Let’s reality-check the euro. Germany dominates the European Union (EU). No final currency decision can be made without Berlin's blessing. The German economy, for better or worse, relies heavily on export. If you were the German chancellor, I bet you wouldn't want to do anything to upset your business partners. It is a fact of life that America is your most indispensable business partner, which means that you are substantially paid in dollars. Naturally, you prefer the King Dollar.

By the same token, you prefer a relatively weak euro vis-a-vis the dollar. Selling goods cheaper makes sense to not only the Germans but also their competitors. Yes, rhetorically, the EU sounds like it is going to upgrade the euro at the expense of the dollar. Politicians in Berlin and Brussels are actually sitting on their hands, however. Talk is cheap. So, why not talk more?

That leaves us with the status quo. Even if Biden has no idea what we are discussing here, his administration will still be prudent enough NOT to invite troubles by engineering a free fall of the dollar. Anyway, there is no free fall of the dollar going forward.

If history is any guide, the dollar might come back up in the not-so-distant future. Prepare for a lot of twists and turns, though.

--- Lingyang Jiang