With a dove in the White House, you bet a hawkish Putin will present himself in Europe. When Obama preached peace on a world tour, Putin continued to occupy 20% of Georgia's territory and then annexed Crimea from Ukraine. When Biden couldn't wait to withdraw from Afghanistan at all costs, Putin prepared openly for a military move on Ukraine. But between Obama and Biden presidencies, Putin dialed down his aggression when Trump was busy taking out terrorists big and small. I am no fan of Trump, but I like his unpredictability, military-wise.
A U.S. president might want to channel Reagan when confronted with a predator like Putin. Putin can't afford a full-scale war. So let him know that America can. As a matter of fact, America can sink Russia's economy overnight. In this regard, Biden has a lot of catching-up to do. Germany will follow only if America will lead. Right now, Biden is not leading. His Secretary of State just speaks vaguely of economic sanctions. Why not be more specific? Go and tell Putin to behave himself or (1) his Nord Stream pipelines will be shut off, and (2) his access to SWIFT will be denied.* Money talks.
As for Putin, what he really goes after is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Following Poland, Ukraine may hook up with NATO sooner or later. Putin has to stop Ukraine in its tracks. Given a dovish U.S. president, Putin is bold enough to dash Ukraine's hope for joining NATO with a threat of invasion. If Biden blinks first, Putin will go on to bag Ukraine. With that, Putin will effectively deny Ukraine its sovereign right to seek NATO membership. Will NATO and America let themselves be discredited at Putin's pleasure? Time will tell. Meeting a strong pushback, though, Putin might settle on a Finlandized Ukraine. Would Ukraine like to be Eastern Europe's Finland? That's another question.
Meanwhile, Xi Jinping is watching Eastern Europe and play-acting in the Western Pacific.
Author: Lingyang Jiang
* "The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, legally S.W.I.F.T. SCRL, is a Belgian cooperative society that serves as an intermediary and executor of financial transactions between banks worldwide." (Wikipedia)
