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虎皮尖椒：一阵风,看看我对你的理论的瓦解

射线对大脑的打击是不可预测的：

下面这段的意思是放射是不可预知的，你可以忽略：

A gram of uranium-238, a commonly occurring radioactive substance, contains some 2.5 x 1021 atoms. By all tests known to science these atoms are identical and indistinguishable. Yet about 12600 times a second one of the atoms in that gram will decay, giving off an alpha particle. This decay does not depend on external stimulus and no extant theory of physics predicts when any given atom will decay, with realistically obtainable knowledge. The uranium found on earth is thought to have been synthesized during a supernova explosion that occurred roughly 5 billion years ago. For determinism to hold, every uranium atom must contain some internal "clock" that specifies the exact time it will decay. And somehow the laws of physics must specify exactly how those clocks were set as each uranium atom was formed during the supernova collapse.

你读读这个：

Exposure to alpha radiation can cause cancer. For this to happen, at some point a specific alpha particle must alter some chemical reaction in a cell in a way that results in a mutation. Since molecules are in constant thermal motion, the exact timing of the radioactive decay that produced the fatal alpha particle matters. If probabilistically determined events do have an impact on the macro events, such as whether a person who could have been historically important dies in youth of a cancer caused by a random mutation, then the course of history is not determined from the dawn of time.

你无法预知大脑什么时候突变,所以也不能说是预定的。

当然,并没有从根上瓦解.但你的理论是不成立了。

宗上所述,你即使有个巨强的computer,也无法预测历史。
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wind1：回复所有关于自由意志的讨论

一部分人同意“人类没有自由意志”的结论。另一部分人反对。反方意见总结：

1。精神活动并不全部建立在物质结构的基础上；这个观点不可证伪（？），本文不谈。

2。存在一些不可预测的偶然因素：量子效应在小概率下可以在很大尺度上表现出来（猫同时是死的和活的）；原子衰变只有统计意义上的规律，无法精确预测各个原子的表现。

3。计算量将超过计算机本身的物理承载极限。不知道并行计算机有没有可能解决这个问题。

4。实际操作上的困难：最初的极小误差会很快被放大到不可接受。

5。其他意见。

针对第二点，我认为是很强有力的反驳。无论是怎样的小概率，当样本很大，时间够长时，它还是会发生。“人类无自由意志”的强理论我打算放弃。

但是弱理论如何？假定这个计算机不但在不断预测未来，也在不断计算未来被改变的概率，同时不断收集数据，一方面检测是否未来已经被改变，另一方面对未来的计算是建立在最新数据的基础上。这样，我们虽然不能从大爆炸开始预测到未来无穷，但是有99。99999%置信度从今天开始预测未来一年。

说几句题外话：宇宙是有限的；或者说，在某个边界之外的事情我们是无法知道的；我打死不信量子力学：在双缝试验中，当光量子被一个一个放出来的时候，出现的不是叠加的衍射图样，而是干涉图样！给我一个断裂吧！
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虎皮尖椒：你的弱理论我不知道怎么反对.所以,我准备从你的大脑理论反驳

现在还不知道怎么反驳.让我思考几天

无为：你们的问题在于 没有搞清楚 什么是人的“自由意志”

自由意志 难道是随机吗？

是一种在自我意识控制之下的有序的 信息处理过程，

当人的意识过程 被外界改变本身不是自由意志的体现。

虎皮尖椒：看风的推理,人的意志几乎100%是预定,可推测的

这是一种哲学概念.他虽然从100%上退了一步,但仍然是在小区域正确.

当然,显然是前提错了.问题是如何反驳...要有逻辑的反驳...

无为：没啥好说得了，人没有自由，嘿嘿，全部的信息都是外来的

至于预定论，那就要 放大到整个宇宙 是不是有限了，

如果宇宙是被造的，那就是有限的，所有的过程都是预定的。

xinmin：We have an illusion of free will, it is so true to us that we cannot imagine a not free world. But in the final analysis, everything is superintended by the Almighty God.

无为：赞同~~~~
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无为：量子力学和波粒二象性 是一个现实，不是一个理论。
那些 随机理论是用来描述现象的。
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xinmin：Freewill is a quantum effect in our decision making

Our decision making is akin to a quantum system, having fuzzy ambivalence. But once the decision is made (partly based on chaos principle), the probability distribution instantly collapes into a reality.

An emsemble of atoms and other microcosmic particles makes some collective move based on internal and external interactions, that is all to freewill in a physical sense.

Of course, one can argue that there is a metaphysical layer of freewill choice.
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