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2006NFL季後賽展望
送交者: Omni 2007年01月01日08:25:24 於 [競技沙龍] 發送悄悄話

【按】兄弟多年來看美式橄欖球從來只支持兩支球隊---NFL中是Baltimore Ravens,大學生聯賽則是OSU Buckeyes (儘管當年我只在OSU讀了10個月就轉學了,有意思的是Cleveland Browns在我轉學後的第二年"追隨"我離開Ohio來到Baltimore成為Ravens,實在令兄弟“感動”不已)。1997年的Rose Bowl應該是我第一場從頭看到尾的美式橄欖球比賽,OSU替補四分衛Joe Germaine成功擊敗了由Jake Plummer領軍的Arizona State。Germaine在比賽結束前的1分40秒開始挽狂瀾於即倒,最後在只剩19秒時將球傳到David Boston手中而達陣!可惜後來Germaine在NFL的職業生涯以失敗告終。

近10年來對OSU的支持總是喜多於憂,而對Ravens的支持似乎憂多於喜。Baltimore Ravens是NFL中的“小市場"球隊,一般不被媒體重視,即便是我們奪得超級碗的那個賽季,一直到決賽當天都不被大多數人看好.光陰似箭,從首奪超級碗至今已有6年了,終於迎來了本常規賽季Ravens漂亮的12-3歷史最佳戰績.本來這兩天想抽空寫一篇展望Ravens季後賽前景的文章,現在覺得時機還不成熟,還是等我們全力拿下first-round bye之後再動筆。

我曾說NFL賽場內外充滿了商戰氣息,那麼今年最有教育意義的例子就是Ravens主教練Brian Billick以不同尋常的勇氣在10月份賽季之中和他最好的朋友Jim Fassel分道揚鑣。這在當時是一個極其困難的商業決定(business decision),但是Baltimore的主流媒體和我在驚訝之餘都認為這是一個正確的決定。最後老天爺也幫了Billick一把,他的賭博獲得了出人意料的巨大成功。現在的關鍵是一定要將主力隊員受傷的概率最小化。。。

今天的MSNBC終於有評論家開始正式跳上Ravens的大篷車(bandwagon),NFL常規賽季結尾的momentum非常重要(去年的Colts季後賽一戰即敗就是常規賽季收官時保存實力惹的禍),以連勝結束常規賽季是一條通往超級碗的康莊大道。

今年我支持的兩支球隊完全有可能雙豐收,這恐怕是2006年度最讓兄弟欣慰的事情。與已經完成的OSU-Michigan決戰紫禁之巔一樣,Baltimore和San Diego的“提前總決賽”似乎無法避免,讓我們拭目以待這場“火星撞地球”般的對決!

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Time to recognize Ravens as serious contender

McNair gives offense direction, leadership, while defense still scary

MSNBC OPINION
By Don Pierson
Updated: 8:47 p.m. ET Dec 27, 2006

The Baltimore Ravens are the most overlooked 12-3 team in recent NFL history. Everybody talks about the 13-2 San Diego Chargers in the AFC. Nobody remembers the Ravens beat them.

Nobody outside Baltimore, that is. In Baltimore, they are beginning to get out the scrapbooks from that Super Bowl year of 2000 and see if there are any empty pages. This is a team that looks every bit as good.

The Ravens aren't quite so intimidating on defense, but they still lead the league in fewest points allowed. And their offense is better than it was in 2000. Running back Jamal Lewis might not be as powerful as he was as a rookie, but quarterback Steve McNair is much better than journeyman Trent Dilfer.

It was McNair's addition that has made the biggest difference in a team that fell to 6-10 last season and began the year with the kind of questions that usually end up getting coaches fired.

Instead, Brian Billick has come up with his most impressive coaching job yet, firing offensive coordinator Jim Fassel and taking over the play-calling after the Ravens hit a two-game skid in October. Since then, the Ravens have won eight of nine games, scoring at least 20 points in all but their 13-7 loss at Cincinnati.

With a defense that gives up only 12 points a game, the math suggests the Ravens don't need a genius calling plays to score two touchdowns a game. With McNair, the Ravens are never out of a game. He's the king of doing what it takes to get a team into an end zone under pressure. Sometimes, he seems to save his best work for last.

With one game to go against Buffalo to assure a playoff bye, the Ravens are honing in on January and they don't care if they remain under the radar. It only fuels the fire that linebacker Ray Lewis still brings to any huddle.

"With the type of defense we play and the way our offense is clicking right now, we're going to be a hard team to beat in the playoffs," Lewis said.

Lewis doesn't care if you take that as promise or threat.

"I think this team really believes we've still got our best football ahead of us," Billick said. "There's only one reason to go to the playoffs and that's to get to the Super Bowl. You're not going to have anybody just happy to be there. We're earned that right to think in those terms. Our focus is Buffalo, but we're at that point in the season where the Super Bowl is why you're in this thing."

If the Ravens have to go to San Diego for the AFC title game, they know that defense travels well. They beat the Chargers 16-13 in Baltimore in Week 4 in a game San Diego fans thought marked the end of conservative Martyball by coach Marty Schottenheimer. If the Chargers think they're better now, the Ravens say bring them on.

The Ravens of 2000 forced more turnovers, 49 to 37. But the Ravens of 2006 have more sacks, 57 to 35. In their last five games, the Ravens have out-sacked opponents 27-1. That means McNair isn't taking the beatings that have marked his career.

While the Ravens of 2000 had only one receiver with more than 60 catches (tight end Shannon Sharper), the Ravens of 2006 have three (tight end Todd Heap, 68; and receivers Mark Clayton, 65, and Derrick Mason, 63). Plus, they have rookie Demetrius Williams, whose 20 catches for a 19.1 average gives McNair a serious deep threat.

Jamal Lewis is rushing at a pedestrian 3.6-yard clip compared to 4.4 as a rookie, but he's over 1,000 yards and the Ravens can also bring Musa Smith and Mike Anderson. With McNair, they no longer need to rely on a one-dimensional offense as much as they did in 2000.

The Ravens' three losses have been to Denver 13-3, Carolina 23-21 and Cincinnati 13-7. They dismantled defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh twice, 27-0 and 31-7. The only team to score more than 13 points against them in the last six games was Cleveland in a 27-17 Baltimore win.

In the Aikman ratings, which many teams follow more closely than NFL ratings, the Ravens rank No. 2 to San Diego in combined offense and defense, but nobody beats Baltimore's defense. The Aikman ratings, named after Hall of Fame quarterback Troy, combine more statistics than the league rankings, which include only yardage. A formula assigns a number to performance, much like the league's complex passer rating.

Barring a collapse against Buffalo, the Ravens will become the third defensive unit in 12 years to top the 90.0 mark in the defensive Aikman rankings. The record of 101.0 by the 2000 Ravens appears safe, but this year's Baltimore team (at 92.8) is running ahead of the 2002 Buccaneers (91.6) for second place.

The Chargers and the Ravens are running 1-2 now in the Aikman combined rankings. The balanced New England Patriots are third. Fourth are the Jacksonville Jaguars, ahead of the first NFC team, the Chicago Bears. The Indianapolis Colts are sixth, giving the AFC five of the top six Aikman teams.

It looks like an AFC year again, with so many good teams that one of the best, Baltimore, gets lost in the shuffle. That's OK. The Ravens still have plenty of time to get noticed.

If they secure the No. 2 seed, chances are they will host Indianapolis in the divisional round, assuming the Colts prevail as the No. 3 seed and beat whoever finishes No. 6, currently the Jets. Against the Colts, the Ravens should be able to crank up whatever running game they desire.

Since the Colts are no lock against the Jets or anybody they host, the Ravens could end up hosting either the No. 4 Patriots or current No. 5 Broncos. They would be favored over either of those teams, too.

By then, the national press will have taken notice, just in time for the Ravens presumably to travel to San Diego for a rematch with the Chargers. It no doubt would be labeled the "real" Super Bowl in honor of AFC dominance.

Q: When are you jerks going to start giving the Ravens some press? All we ever hear is how other teams lose to them but never how Baltimore has beaten them. If the national press had any integrity and/or competence they would be looking at the numbers and realize that 12 teams couldn't all have had 'bad days' when they played Baltimore. Look at the current articles. Ben has a bad day... Yeah, right.
— Greg Thomas, Baltimore

A: See above. I think Ben must have had at least two bad days. I agree the Ravens have been shortchanged. They came from behind early, then lost a couple close ones and people sort of lost track. Don't worry. They'll get their due sooner or later.

Q: How much of Tony Romo's success is due to him, and how much comes from having a coach like Bill Parcells? Is it easier for a rookie to come in when Parcells can provide the leadership?
— Steve Thomas
A: Parcells never had much use for rookie quarterbacks, not even his No. 1 pick in New England in 1993, Drew Bledsoe. That's one reason he hesitated to allow Romo to replace Bledsoe during this season. Romo is in his fourth year, so he's no rookie, but he never got a shot with Parcells, who fooled around with so-called more experienced players so long that it's become too late. Had Romo been inserted earlier, like last season, maybe he could iron out his current problems faster.

It's unfortunate for Cowboy fans they are now stuck with what Parcells described as a team that obviously doesn't know how to play in important December games. Parcells coached best when he could rely on wily veterans. The best coaches now know how to get young players into the mix quickly. He's tried it more so on his defense, but they aren't responding.

Q: Knowing what we all know now, which player would you take first in last year's NFL draft?
— Austin Condor, Tulsa, Okla.

A: Vince Young beyond the shadow of a doubt.

I thought so as soon as I saw the Rose Bowl game, wrote it then, and still think so now. He is the most perfect example of paralysis by analysis I've seen in recent years. I guess scouts get paid to scrutinize players throughout their careers and general managers get paid to listen to scouts and nobody thinks common sense is often the most accurate measure. They feared his Wonderlic test score was too low. He wouldn't be able to figure out complicated defenses. His release was too sidearm. He wouldn't be able to get away with running around in the pros.

I wrote that if Vince Young failed in the NFL, shame on the NFL. He has such obvious talent and leadership ability that he could revolutionize the quarterback position. The leadership element is underrated. Anybody who ever played with him or coached him talked about it and his record proved it. At quarterback, such an intangible is invaluable, yet at least two teams refused to pay a lot of attention to it.

The Saints had a better excuse after signing Drew Brees, but the Texans had no excuse at all and will have to live with this mistake for years, maybe decades. It is possible that even had the Texans selected Reggie Bush, they would have eventually regretted it. One of the things the Texans failed to consider was the negative impact their decision would have on their selection, defensive end Mario Williams, who shows every indication of becoming a fine player, but will never be able to make the impact of a franchise quarterback. He would have to make 20 sacks a year. He would have to be the reincarnation of Reggie White, who by the way couldn't win until he hooked up with franchise quarterback Brett Favre in Green Bay.

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